鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系颗粒滩白云岩储层特征及主控因素

基于岩心观察、薄片鉴定、物性分析和地球化学分析,结合岩相古地理研究,认为鄂尔多斯盆地中东部奥陶系盐下发育三套颗粒滩白云岩储层,分别为下奥陶统马家沟组马二段、马四段和马五_(7+9)亚段。马二段颗粒滩环台内洼地分布,马四段和马五_(7+9)亚段颗粒滩环台内洼地以及滩间次级洼地两侧的相对隆起带分布。白云岩储集空间类型主要为粒间孔、晶间(溶)孔、溶蚀孔洞和裂缝。三维CT分析表明,白云岩储层具有优良的储渗性能。颗粒滩白云岩主要为浅埋藏蒸发海水渗透回流交代成因。白云岩储层的发育主要受控于三个因素:层序格架控制的颗粒滩分布,表生岩溶作用,构造裂缝系统。     

应用CRInSAR技术监测三峡库区滑坡形变

在对CRInSAR技术的基本理论和处理算法及实际应用进行研究的基础上,比较CRInSAR技术与传统InSAR技术的异同后认为,CRInSAR技术更适合三峡库区的滑坡监测。     

气象三要素观测数据的共享

地震仪器不同程度地受气象因素干扰,为此地震台站往往根据不同的前兆仪器,安装相应的气象观测仪。以GPS观测仪器配套的PTR-Ⅲ气象仪为例,分析该仪器共享"十五"观测网络的WYY-1型气象三要素观测仪数据的方法,编写程序实现了自动下载WYY-1气象仪数据,并转换为PTR-Ⅲ气象仪格式,从而减少台站辅助观测仪器的数量,减轻了仪器维护的负担。     

Operations optimization of multireservoir systems using storage moments equations

Fletcher–Ponnambalam presented a new model for considering the balance equation of the storage volume of the reservoir using indicator functions. For stochastic inflows, the two storage moments of this balance equation, namely, the mean and variance, calculated using a random release policy were found to be quite accurate unlike any known models. Significantly, this model required no discretization of storage volumes or releases. In this paper, this work has been extended to two new cases: for multireservoir systems which require further consideration of the stochastic releases and for arbitrary distribution of inflows using the Beta-equivalent Kumaraswamy distribution which has a simpler form than Beta. The randomized release policies are easy to use even in a multireservoir problem. The Parambikulm-Aliyar Project from India is used as a case study. Results show accurate predictions of mean of storages in the multireservoir case but show the need for further improvement in the standard deviations of storages. The optimal benefits and the policies obtained are shown to be at least as good as obtained using Monte Carlo-based methods.     

川中丘陵区和三峡地区小流域侵蚀产沙的塘库沉积137Cs断代

选择川中丘陵区和三峡地区四川盐亭、南充和重庆开县的4个小流域,采集塘库沉积泥沙137Cs样品,确定了1963年以来塘库淤沙量,并据此分析了流域输沙模数和侵蚀模数。研究表明,开县春秋沟的淤沙模数最高,为1869t.km-2.a-1;盐亭武家沟和集流沟分别为701t.km-2.a-1和710 t.km-2.a-1;南充天马湾沟为566 t.km-2.a-1。对小流域地貌特征的分析和谷地水田取样结果表明,除塘库淤积区外,各小流域谷地内基本无泥沙淤积。因此,除南充天马湾沟按现有水面面积作为淤积面积求算的淤沙模数明显偏小外,其他小流域的塘库淤沙模数基本可以表征各研究小流域的侵蚀模数。对研究小流域侵蚀产沙影响因素的分析表明,除降雨和土地利用状况外,地形起伏、土壤抗蚀性及岩层产状也是三地侵蚀程度差异的重要原因。     

三峡地区上地壳结构的远震虚震源反射地震成像

远震虚震源反射成像方法利用远震初至波在台网之下地表与地下界面间形成的反射波(PPdp震相)波形资料进行台网地区地震反射结构研究.此方法先用台网各台站的平均初至波形求取震源信号,再用该震源信号与各道地震记录作反褶积从而取得反射剖面.本文介绍了远震虚震源反射成像的基本原理和实现步骤,并以三峡地区的观测资料为例,得到三峡库首区上地壳的反射地震剖面.成像剖面中解释出的四川盆地和秭归盆地的底界面位置和形态与地表地质观测和大地构造背景吻合.为验证虚震源成像的能力,本文使用弹性波正演模拟合成地震数据,经过处理实际资料一样的步骤获得虚震源成像结果.正演模拟表明,叠加多个远震的反射地震剖面可以有效地改善成像的信噪比和连续性;虚震源成像需要选择特定的震源频率范围,以减轻高频噪音以及低频造成的成像问题.在研究上地壳结构时,建议在不适合主动源采集和缺乏低频信号的地区尝试远震虚震源方法.     

基于双相介质理论的储层参数反演方法

传统基于单相介质理论的储层参数反演方法将孔隙流体与固体骨架等效为单一固体,弱化了孔隙流体的影响,反演结果精度不高.本文提出根据双相介质理论反演储层参数的方法.首先,在前人研究的基础上,利用岩石物理模型建立弹性参数与孔隙度、饱和度、泥质含量等储层参数间的关系,进而将双相介质反射系数推导为储层参数的函数;其次,根据贝叶斯反演理论,在高斯噪声假设的基础上,采用更加符合实际情况的修正柯西分布函数描述反射系数的稀疏性,推导出储层物性参数目标反演函数;最后,应用差分进化非线性全局寻优算法来求解目标反演函数,使得反演结果与实际资料间误差最小.新方法旨在突出流体对介质反射系数的影响,以期得到较高的储层参数反演精度.模型与实际资料测试均表明该方法可行、有效且反演精度较高.     

龙滩水库蓄水后库区中小地震震源机制

本文在对龙滩库区2006年9月30日至2013年5月26日发生的3682次地震进行精定位的基础上,利用FOCMEC方法和改进的格点尝试法反演了ML2.0以上地震震源机制及区域构造应力场,并综合龙滩库区地层岩性、断裂构造和渗透条件等资料,探讨了地震活动类型与库区蓄水过程的关系,获得以下认识:(1)龙滩水库蓄水后的地震活动主要丛集在罗妥、八茂、拉浪、坝首和布柳河5个深水区,地震类型以逆断为主,正断和走滑也占有一定比例.蓄水初期,库区地震类型呈现多样性,蓄水约4年3个月后,地震主要发生在浅部地层中,并大多为逆断型地震.(2)5个地震丛构造应力场最大主应力方向以NW—SE为主,倾角均较小,中等和最小主应力分布较凌乱,在此构造应力环境中,龙滩库区主要断裂整体上呈现走滑运动的性质,局部伴生不同程度的逆倾滑或正倾滑运动分量.(3)库区深、浅部地震活动水平和地震性质之所以会随蓄水过程发生变化,可能与深、浅部构造应力环境、岩体力学性质和渗透性能的差异有关.     

Direct forecasting of subsurface flow response from non-linear dynamic data by linear least-squares in canonical functional principal component space

Inverse modeling is widely used to assist with forecasting problems in the subsurface. However, full inverse modeling can be time-consuming requiring iteration over a high dimensional parameter space with computationally expensive forward models and complex spatial priors. In this paper, we investigate a prediction-focused approach (PFA) that aims at building a statistical relationship between data variables and forecast variables, avoiding the inversion of model parameters altogether. The statistical relationship is built by first applying the forward model related to the data variables and the forward model related to the prediction variables on a limited set of spatial prior models realizations, typically generated through geostatistical methods. The relationship observed between data and prediction is highly non-linear for many forecasting problems in the subsurface. In this paper we propose a Canonical Functional Component Analysis (CFCA) to map the data and forecast variables into a low-dimensional space where, if successful, the relationship is linear. CFCA consists of (1) functional principal component analysis (FPCA) for dimension reduction of time-series data and (2) canonical correlation analysis (CCA); the latter aiming to establish a linear relationship between data and forecast components. If such mapping is successful, then we illustrate with several cases that (1) simple regression techniques with a multi-Gaussian framework can be used to directly quantify uncertainty on the forecast without any model inversion and that (2) such uncertainty is a good approximation of uncertainty obtained from full posterior sampling with rejection sampling.     

新丰江水库上游氮磷污染的时空变化

新丰江水库流域是广东省最大的饮用水源保护区,对东江下游和香港地区的用水安全有十分重要的作用,水质长期保持在国家地表水I类标准。但随着经济的发展,水库上游地区人类活动加剧,对水质和水量造成潜在威胁。通过2007、2008年对新丰江水库上游流域采样分析氮磷质量分数,发现总氮和总磷超过地表水Ⅱ类标准的采样点比例分别为48%和12%。与总磷相比,新丰江水库上游总氮的污染要更加严重,丰水期超标点明显少于枯水期,而枯水期氮-磷正相关关系较好（P＜0.000 1,R²＝0.868 3）,污染物可能为同一污染源或同期释放。空间上超标点多位于新丰、连平县城和大型城镇居民点如马头、忠信、灯塔镇附近,河流污染主要来自生活污水和养殖废水等人为点源污染。尽管目前新丰江水库库区的水质情况总体较好,但上游水质也存在恶化风险,可能导致水库自净能力降低,水体富营养化加剧,因此需要对新丰江水库上游的水质进行定期监测,通过控制内、外源性氮磷措施,以减少饮用水源安全风险和保证新丰江水库水质长期稳定。