三峡水库枯水期补水调度对洞庭湖越冬白鹤(Grus leucogeranus)摄食栖息地的影响

摄食栖息地面积是反映越冬水鸟生存空间的直接指标,三峡水库运行后洞庭湖枯水期水文节律出现新的变化,给越冬水鸟摄食栖息地造成的影响尚不明确.为定量描述三峡水库枯水期不同出库流量对洞庭湖越冬水鸟摄食栖息地的影响,以洞庭湖典型的珍稀越冬水鸟——白鹤(Grus leucogeranus)为指示性候鸟,以白鹤摄食对栖息地水深需求作为关键生态因子,建立白鹤摄食对水深需求的栖息地适宜度模型.构建涵盖长江干流、三口河系、洞庭湖及其四水尾闾河段的江湖一体化耦合水动力模型,实现栖息地水动力分布特征的精确模拟.在此基础上耦合栖息地适宜度模型和水动力模型,建立了面向白鹤摄食对三峡水库出库流量需求的物理栖息地模型,量化不同出库流量对应的白鹤摄食栖息地加权可利用面积,定量分析水库运行对白鹤摄食栖息地面积的影响.结果表明:1月中旬三峡水库不同出库流量下洞庭湖白鹤潜在摄食栖息地面积保持稳定并随出库流量的增加呈增大趋势,维持在101.40~121.84 km²之间,其中东洞庭湖摄食栖息地面积在7.49~9.86 km²之间,南洞庭湖(含横岭湖)摄食栖息地面积在47.37~60.34 km²之间,西洞庭湖摄食栖息地面积在46.54~51.64 km²之间.不同湖区摄食栖息地面积随着三峡水库出库流量的增加均呈增大的趋势,说明三峡水库枯水期补水调度对于维持栖息地面积具有重要作用.较三峡水库运行前相比,白鹤摄食栖息地面积最大增加20.44 km²,对应的增幅为20.16%.成果明晰了三峡水库运行对洞庭湖白鹤摄食栖息地面积的影响规律,可为通过三峡水库补水调度改善洞庭湖越冬水鸟摄食栖息地生境提供理论基础.     

Vertical distribution of the dominant planktonic crustaceans in a mesotrophic reservoir, Xujiahe reservoir (central China)

The day and night vertical distributions of the dominant planktonic crustaceans in Xujiahe Reservoir were investigated on July 7, 1998. Sampling was carried out at Station D in the upstream region, Doupuohe, and Stations LI and LII in the downstream region, Lujiaodao. At Station D and Station LI, Leptodora kindti showed diel vertical migrations. In Daphnia galeata and Diaphanosoma dubia a limited reverse diel vertical migration was found at Station D, and large individuals tended to stay in lower layers during the day. Neutrodiaptomus incongruens seemed to avoid the water column of 0–6 m by day, but a detectable proportion of the population moved upwards at night. Mesocyclops thermocyclopoides showed a clearly defined diel vertical migration behavior at all three stations. The vertical distribution of Thermocyclops crassus was similar at different stations: in daylight hours it was found almost exclusively in the water column below 6 m and during the night a significant proportion of the population shifted upwards.     

Effective typhoon characteristics and their effects on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting

This paper describes the identification of effective typhoon characteristics and the development of a new type of hourly reservoir inflow forecasting model with the effective typhoon characteristics. Firstly, a comparison of support vector machines (SVMs), which is a novel kind of neural networks (NNs), and back-propagation networks (BPNs) is made to select an appropriate NN-based model. The results show that SVM-based models are more appropriate than BPN-based models because of their higher accuracy and much higher efficiency. In addition, effective typhoon characteristics for improving forecasting performance are identified from all the collected typhoon information. Then the effective typhoon characteristics (the position of the typhoon and the distance between the typhoon center and the reservoir) are added to the proposed SVM-based models. Next, a performance comparison of models with and without effective typhoon characteristics is conducted to clearly highlight the effects of effective typhoon characteristics on hourly reservoir inflow forecasting. To reach a just conclusion, the performance is evaluated by cross validation, and the improvement in performance due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics is tested by paired comparison t-tests at the 5% significance level. The results confirm that effective typhoon characteristics do improve the forecasting performance and the improvement increases with increasing lead-time, especially when the rainfall data are not available. For four- to six-hour ahead forecasts, the improvement due to the addition of effective typhoon characteristics increases from 3% to 18% and from 10% to 113% for Categories I (rainfall data are available) and II (rainfall data are not available), respectively. In conclusion, effective typhoon characteristics are recommended as key inputs for reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoons. The proposed SVM-based models with effective typhoon characteristics are expected to provide more accurate forecasts than BPN-based models. The proposed modeling technique is also expected to be useful to support reservoir operation systems and other disaster warning systems.     

中国西部及邻区的地壳三维速度结构

用网格频散反演技术计算了155条瑞利面波混合频散数据,将中国大陆分为目前最小分格2°×2°,得到了中国西部及邻区深至80km地壳和上地幔顶部的三维剪切波SV速度结构。结果表明:(1)天山褶皱系地壳平均厚度为54km,上地壳平均速度为3.3km/s,下壳平均速度3.93km/s,上地幔盖层平均速度为4.64km/s,都偏大。北天山壳厚比天山薄,壳和上地幔盖层下均有低速层。(2)塔里木盆地中部地壳厚46km,到其边缘的昆仑山、天山地带壳厚增加到52～55km。壳内无低速层,壳平均速度很低,为3.49km/s,地表有9km的沉积层。(3)青藏高原莫霍面呈凹形,平均壳厚为67km,平均壳速度为3.58km/s。东西端存在壳内低速层,埋深为15～35km。(4)南北带为构造复杂的区域,莫霍面深度具有东高西低,南北两端高、中间低的特点,带内普遍存在壳内低速层。南北带从群速度、速度、莫霍面等深线都可看到明显的横向差异。(5)准噶尔盆地地壳厚47km,无壳内低速层,中地壳不明显。该区呈稳定的大陆壳结构。(6)柴达木盆地在正常速度的中壳顶部有一高速夹层,速度为3.72km/s,厚10km,上顶部埋深14km。     

三峡井网井水位对汶川8.0级地震的同震响应特征研究h

系统分析了三峡井网8口井水位对汶川8.0级地震的同震响应及其后效特征,揭示出这些特征因井而异,其差异性在井孔结构相似的条件下主要取决于井点的构造部位、观测含水层的地下水埋藏类型、含水层的导水系数等条件;深入研究了井水位同震后效特征中残留阶升与阶降的力学含义及其地震预测意义,并用仙女山断裂带上近期地震活动验证了残留阶升区可能是未来地震危险区的科学推论．      

多水源水库浮游植物优势种生态位及种间联结性动态分析:以山东峡山水库为例

为了解山东省战略水源地峡山水库在多水源（本地湖库水、长江水及黄河水）共存条件下,浮游植物优势种生态位季节变化和群落结构稳定性状况,于2019年对峡山水库10个代表样点进行浮游植物季度采样,并运用生态位宽度、生态位重叠值、方差比率法、卡方检验及联结系数对优势种生态位及种间关联性进行分析。结果显示,峡山水库四个季度共鉴定到浮游植物7门78属95种,其中优势种4门12属12种,除春季外,其他三季均以蓝藻类群为绝对优势,其中赖氏泽丝藻（Limnothrix redekei）、阿氏浮丝藻（Planktothrix agardhii）以及项圈假鱼腥藻（Pseudanabaena moniliformis）为全年优势种。多样性指数显示出较为一致的趋势,即春季浮游植物多样性较高,夏季多样性最低。优势种生态位宽度差异较大,变化范围在0.526~2.224,最大值、最小值分别为秋季的项圈假鱼腥藻和春季的小金色藻（Chromulina sp.）。项圈假鱼腥藻在多个季节具有最大的生态位宽度及较强的适应多样化生境的能力。生态位重叠显示项圈假鱼腥藻与其他多个优势蓝藻在不同季节具有最大的生态位重叠值,且其是唯一一个在春、夏和秋三季处于衰退期,而在冬季迅速发展的优势蓝藻。四个季度优势种总体关联性差异较为明显,群落结构不稳定。卡方检验显示76%的物种对为显著正联结关系,形成以项圈假鱼腥藻为主导,与其他优势蓝藻共同占有同一资源和空间的稳定演替模式。建议水库管理及调水除关注夏秋季可能的藻华外,还需密切关注低温季节藻类的异常增殖,尤其是冬季的项圈假鱼腥藻。研究可为胶东调水工程相关水库的水华预警和多水源调度提供理论依据和数据支撑。     

Modeling uncertainties of reservoir flushing simulations

Every dam or barrage construction affects the watercourse and the retention of sediment that previously was carried by the river, which can lead to siltation of the reservoir and obstruction of water intakes over time, reducing their capacities. However, the information available regarding the effect of sediment and drawdown parameters, sediment management at reservoirs, as well as different equational approaches, is scarce. The current research aims to evaluate the effect of parameters associated with numerical modeling of sediment management in reservoirs considering scenarios with different drawdowns, transport equations, sediment size distributions, and thickness of the initial sediment layer. The case study of the Aimorés Hydropower Plant (HPP) is used, applying the Delft3D-FLOW model for two-dimensional modeling. All parameters influenced the volume of mobilized sediment, among which the initial layer thickness was the parameter that resulted in the greatest changes in simulated results. In general, the results show that the uncertainties in the input parameters outweigh the uncertainties between the techniques, which found large variations in results when evaluating the use of different transport equations. These results indicate the importance of proper estimation of model parameters for predicting effects with accuracy and the need for such studies before planning and management operations are evaluated to avoid environmental harm and energy waste.     

三峡永久船闸中隔墩岩体变形分析

针对三峡永久船闸中隔墩变形监测资料所反映出的几种典型变形规律,采用有限元数值分析和工程地质条件分析等研究手段进行了深入细致的分析得出以下结论：中隔墩岩体水平位移值的波动是由于临槽的不同步开挖引起的;第二闸室至第三闸室首的中隔墩向北“一边倒”是因为南北闸室地应力的差异和结构面的存在;中隔墩沿深度方向水平位移数值发生突变的原因是结构面的存在。并为研究岩土工程变形监测资料中的“个性问题”（或称异常情况）提供了一种有益的借鉴。     

从已发现的油气田看中国海相油气勘探

中国海相油气勘探的主要目标是古生界碳酸盐岩,在漫长的演化历程中它的主要成藏类型是准原生型。对形成保存至今的工业油气藏来说,碳酸盐岩中有效烃源岩的总有机碳含量下限应≥0.5%,滨海相或海陆交互相煤系可对生烃作出重大贡献。碳酸盐岩中的储集体受裂缝—岩溶发育程度的控制而分为三种基本类型:(1)以孤立的缝洞储集体为主者称纳溪型,各储集体内的流体性质、压力均可有不同;(2)各储集体间相互连通从而有统一的压力和气、油、水界面,若其似块状者称任丘型,若其似层状者则称威远型;(3)居于这两个端元间的过渡类型为塔河型,其各部分之间的流体性质和压力可有一定差别,无统一油水界面。应注意对似层状储集体的勘探研究,保存条件的好坏对海相油气田有决定性的意义。在分析复杂的多期成藏史中,要注意古隆起和晚期成藏的辩证关系。我国的海相油气勘探有难度,要重新评价有效和高效烃源岩,从较浅部和次生油气蒇入手逼近油气源,寻找主力油气藏,要重视岩性圈闭和各构造(形变)层间的不吻合性。中国的海相油气勘探方向可分为优先勘探、立争突破、劣中选优三个层次。     

中国古生界海相地层油气勘探

影响中国古生界海相油气勘探并且需要加强研究的主要问题是:保存条件的认识与有利区预测;有效烃源岩与资源潜力;储层的复杂性及其对非构造圈闭的影响。保存条件分为三个层次:含油气盆地的保存、含油气系统的保存、油气藏的保存。塔里木、四川、鄂尔多斯三大克拉通盆地是中国古生界保存较好的盆地,是海相油气勘探的战略目标区,另外还有准噶尔、楚雄等盆地。盆地斜坡相泥岩及泥状灰岩是海相油气勘探的主要烃源;海陆过渡相烃源岩发育区是重要战略方向;陆表海碳酸盐岩烃源岩区是中小油气田勘探领域。从储层条件来说,下古生界应以非砂岩岩溶储层为主要勘探对象,溶蚀不整合面广泛发育,已发现的下古生界大中型油气田仅见于碳酸盐岩溶储层;上古生界以孔隙性碎屑岩及碳酸盐岩储层为主要勘探对象,晚古生代的构造一古地理演化为这两类储层的广泛发育提供了条件。