岩石加速破裂行为的物理自相似律

掌握岩石变形破坏过程中体积膨胀点至峰值强度点之间加速破裂行为的演化规律,是实现地质灾害物理预测的关键.本文考虑裂纹张开和闭合两种情况,基于断裂力学建立了三轴应力作用下裂纹扩展临界尺度与等效应力的关系.对微元体破坏概率,分别采用以等效应力表达的Weibull分布函数和裂纹尺度分形函数,通过对比导出了形状参数m与裂纹分布分维D_f关系的表达式.一个有趣的发现是,岩石峰值强度点与体积膨胀点应变比仅与m或D_f有关.对岩石蠕变或准蠕变破坏,合理的m值范围为[1.0,4.0],在此范围内应变比近似为常数1.48,该常数是描述不同尺度岩石加速破裂规律的物理自相似常数.实例分析表明,基于岩石加速破裂规律构建的多锁固段脆性破裂理论,其适用性广,尤其在崩滑和大地震预测领域,具有良好应用前景.此外,本文给出了b值与m值定量关系,以解释b值的物理意义,并探讨将其用于地震预测的可行性.     

Investigating Bermuda's pollution history through stable isotope analyses of modern and museum-held gorgonian corals

For centuries, Bermuda has been challenged with wastewater management for the protection of human and environmental health. By quantifying the δ¹⁵N of the common sea fan Gorgonia ventalina sampled from 30 sites throughout Bermuda we show that sewage-derived nitrogen is detectable on nearshore coral reefs and declines across the lagoon to the outer rim. We also sampled gorgonians from two museum collections representing a 50y time-series (1958–2008). These samples revealed an increase in δ¹⁵N of > 4.0‰ until the mid-1970s, after which δ¹⁵N values slowly declined by ~ 2.0‰. A δ¹⁵N chronology from a gorgonian skeleton exhibited a similar decline over the last 30–40 years of approximately 0.6‰. We conclude that policies have been effective in reducing sewage impacts to Bermudian reefs. However, significant sources of sewage pollution persist and are likely have a strong impact on harbor and nearshore coral communities and human health.     

Atlas of susceptibility to pollution in marinas. Application to the Spanish coast

An atlas of susceptibility to pollution of 320 Spanish marinas is provided. Susceptibility is assessed through a simple, fast and low cost empirical method estimating the flushing capacity of marinas. The Complexity Tidal Range Index (CTRI) was selected among eleven empirical methods. The CTRI method was selected by means of statistical analyses because: it contributes to explain the system's variance; it is highly correlated to numerical model results; and, it is sensitive to marinas' location and typology. The process of implementation to the Spanish coast confirmed its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a tool for the environmental management of marinas worldwide. The atlas of susceptibility, assessed through CTRI values, is an appropriate instrument to prioritize environmental and planning strategies at a regional scale.     

Longitudinal variations of phytoplankton compositions in lake-to-river systems

To test the hypothesis of longitudinal variations in phytoplankton compositions from a eutrophic lake to its river downstream and determine the length of the transition zone, we applied functional groups as well as taxonomical methods to this coupled aquatic system, which is composed of the Dianchi Lake upstream and the Tanglang River downstream, by sampling at 9 stations during Microcystis blooms in the Dianchi Lake in 2013. The longitudinal variations in phytoplankton compositions from lacustrine species to fluvial species were reflected by: (1) the shift from Microcystis to Chlorococcales green algae and centric diatoms; (2) the shift from the dominance of codon M to the coexistence of a variety of coda without one outstanding codon; and (3) except for codon M, the shift from lacustrine coda (H1, L_O, T) towards coda that are adapted to both lacustrine and fluvial circumstances (MP, X1, X2). The prominent difference of phytoplankton compositions between the Dianchi Lake and the lower reaches of the Tanglang River revealed that there was a transition zone in between. The upper and middle reaches of the Tanglang River with a length of approximately 26.4 km were considered the transition zone because: (1) the dominant lentic codon M in the Dianchi Lake disappeared at the lower reaches of the river; (2) the amount of codon P that is sensitive to stratification rose at the beginning of the river; and (3) the codon T, which is well adapted to the persistently mixed layer or epilimnia of lakes, lost a large number of biomass at the upper and middle reaches of the Tanglang River. In this study, we found that the eutrophic lake had a significant influence on the river downstream. In addition, we found that functional groups were sensitive to the changes of external aquatic conditions and helpful in determining the length of the transition zone.     

K型加强节点承载力及滞回性能分析

K型相贯节点区域容易出现主管管壁的局部屈曲与撕裂,可以采用主管与内套管之间夹层灌混凝土的方法进行加强。采用有限元软件ANSYS,对加强前后节点的静力极限承载力和滞回性能进行分析。结果表明:在主管与内套管之间夹层灌混凝土可有效改善节点的破坏模式,减小节点附近的应力集中问题,同时增强节点的刚度与承载力;无加强节点滞回曲线较为丰满,承载力下降相对平缓,但和加强节点比较,承载力相差明显;减小内套管的尺寸在一定程度上可以提高节点的极限承载力。     

基于改进型BP网络的空间电场分类研究

空间电场信号异常识别是研究地震引起电离层扰动的重要内容。 将空间超低频电场电位数据看作随机数字信号, 以均值、 均方差、 偏度和峰度等四个指标进行描述, 采用“5·12”汶川大地震前空间超低频电场电位数据作为原始数据, 训练改进型BP神经网络, 建立了空间电场信号异常分类识别模型, 并以SOM神经网络进行验证。 计算结果显示, 空间超低频电场电位异常信号主要集中在5°~25°N, 88°~120°E之间的区域, 汶川大地震影响范围内的电离层扰动, 可能是汶川地震发生前引起的, 这与前人研究一致, 说明采用改进型BP神经网络异常分类识别模型研究地震引起的电离层扰动是可行的。     

龙门山断裂带上“破裂空段”的发震概率研究

本文采用分层粘弹性介质模型计算了汶川地震对芦山震中产生的库仑应力加载的影响,进而结合Dieterich(1994)提出的速率状态摩擦定律给出芦山附近区域6级地震累积发震概率随时间的变化。结果显示,2013年芦山7.0级地震时其累积发震概率达18%,说明汶川地震产生的应力扰动加速了芦山地震的发生。本文还计算了汶川、芦山2次地震对其间"破裂空段"处产生的累积库仑应力扰动的影响,结合背景地震发生率,给出了"破裂空段"处6级地震累积发震概率变化。虽然计算结果可能受到大邑地震、介质模型参数的选取和背景地震发生概率等因素影响而存在一定误差,但"破裂空段"在2次强震应力加载下累积发震概率是不断增大的,因此我们认为"破裂空段"处发生中强地震的紧迫性不断增强。     

基于高分辨率影像的九寨沟7.0级地震道路震害评估

2017年8月8日九寨沟7.0级地震引发贯通重灾区的S301省道、Z120县道多处损坏,给应急救援和灾后重建带来较大困难。利用高分辨率无人机和卫星影像可以对道路震害情况进行评估。本文首先对道路震害进行破坏类型和破坏等级的划分,针对不同分辨率影像所表现的道路破坏特征,建立各破坏等级、各损坏类型的解译标志,并完成灾区遥感图像覆盖范围内主要道路震害的研判与评估。经统计分析,研究区域共出现110处明显破坏,其中,68处为部分损坏,42处为完全损毁,道路整体破坏严重。     

基于手机位置数据的四川九寨沟7.0级地震人流分析

2017年8月8日四川九寨沟7.0级震后,浙江省地震局利用大数据采集了1031.99万条手机位置记录和4.46万个空间格网位置。本文结合24hr连续定位的手机数据,使用手机位置数据分别对九寨沟灾区人口从时间和地理维度上进行了量化分析,估计了多维人口分布的偏差,同时,探讨了剔除微观误差数据用户来估算灾区通讯基站退服分布的方法。该项工作为震后快速获取灾区人口实时动态分布提供了有效途径,同时也为地震灾害评估提供了较准确的依据。     

2017年九寨沟地震前重力场异常特征提取

2017年8月8日九寨沟发生7.0级地震,此次地震发生在塔藏断裂、岷江断裂和虎牙断裂附近,震源机制为走滑型。重力场静态异常和动态异常变化可为研究深地壳结构性质提供重要的物理场信息。本文利用WGM计算的布格重力异常数据及实测流动重力数据进行小波多尺度分解,分离得到不同深度场源特征的地壳介质横向不均匀性。结果表明,WGM布格重力异常数据和实测重力数据的小波多尺度结果较为一致,通过对比分析发现,九寨沟地震发生在区域重力场的四象限分布中心位置,不同时空尺度的重力场变化对于深入认识潜在地震危险性趋势具有一定的科学意义。