汶川大地震四川省青川县砖混结构村镇房屋震害分析

2008年汶川 8.0级大地震造成了大量的房屋破坏,尤其村镇房屋的破坏最为严重.本文基于对四川省青川县部分乡镇村镇房屋震害的实地调查,对砖混结构房屋的震害从地形、地基基础和结构三方面进行了震害总结,分析了典型震害的成因,指出了目前村镇房屋建设存在的问题,最后对提高村镇民房的地震安全提出了一些建议.     

珠江口两岸耕地景观破碎化定量分析

在GIS技术的支持下,利用景观格局分析软件FRAGSTATS3．0对珠江口两岸耕地资源进行景观破碎化定量分析。研究结果表明,两岸耕地资源碎化程度存在明显的区域差异,珠江口东岸高于西岸,深圳最高,番禺耕地地块数量破碎化与珠海耕地地块形状破碎化程度最低;地貌结构是两岸耕地资源破碎化差异的主要内在因素;快速城市化与工业化占用大量耕地资源同时．在一定程度上影响到两岸耕地资源空间分布特征与耕地资源的完整性。     

1961-2009年辽河流域气候变化特征及其对水资源的影响

辽河流域是我国七大流域之一,长期以来一直存在水资源严重不足的问题。采用1961-2009年辽河流域境内水文、气象观测数据,研究气象、水文要素历史变化特征,并采用同期和滞后相关分析,建立气象要素与水文要素的最优相关关系。结果表明：辽河流域气候变暖明显,增温幅度远高于全球和中国的同期增温幅度;辽河流域降水量增减趋势不明显,总体上为略减少趋势,但存在明显的少-多-少-多-少5个阶段性变化。辽河流域蒸发量为略减少趋势,春季、夏季是蒸发量较大季节;辽河流域近50年来径流量为减少趋势,经历了偏多-偏少-偏多-偏少4个阶段的变化,最近的1996-2009年经历了年径流量最少阶段,平均年径流量仅为16.2亿 m³,只达到多年平均径流量的58 %、径流量最多年代的32 %。7月、8月是流量最为集中的月份,2个月流量就占到全年的50.24 %,超过全年的一半;辽河流域降水量与径流量有较好的相关关系。在年尺度,径流量与铁岭、法库等周边地区相关系数基本达到0.6左右;在日尺度,日降水量与降水发生后第二日流量相关程度最好,在所有等级上两者相关系数均在0.7以上,在日降水量大于等于25 mm等级上,相关系数最高可达到0.85。     

2013年长江中下游夏季高温干旱演变过程及环流异常成因简析

利用改进的CIn指数,结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,逐候分析2013年夏季长江中下游地区高温干旱演变过程和高温异常成因。结果表明：改进后的CIn指数能够准确识别此次干旱过程,整体持续时间近一个月。旱情从7月第4候湖南南部开始,8月第3候干旱程度最强,特旱中心位于湖南省中东部,浙江省为高温中心,8月第4候旱情得到缓解。在干旱成因上,极涡位置异常偏西,影响长江中下游地区冷空气偏弱,南亚高压东伸与西太平洋副热带高压西伸明显;鄂霍次克海至菲律宾一带呈较强的EAP遥相关型,其中长江中下游地区位势高度的正异常加强了西太平洋副热带高压的中心强度并使其位置偏西;乌拉尔山地区的阻塞高压与西太平洋副热带高压相对峙,有利于西太平洋副热带高压长期稳定地控制在长江中下游地区;同时欧亚大陆与西太平洋海陆温差增大,东亚夏季风偏强,西太平洋副热带高压异常偏北,长江中下游地区下沉气流强盛,在西太平洋副热带高压和南亚高压共同作用下,造成持续的高温干旱过程。     

Anwendung eines neuen Feldanalysenverfahrens zur Untersuchung der Stabilität von Arsen und seinen anorganischen Spezies in aquatischen Systemen

Using of a New Field Analysis Method to Investigate the Stability of Arsenic and its Inorganic Species in Aquatic Systems The stability of arsenic species in aquatic systems is limited by the possibilities of chemical and biochemical reactions. Redox reactions and bioalkylation lead to changes of the species ratios. In this work, the stability of As(III) and As(V) was examined at storage of distilled, de-ionized, and drinking water at different conditions (refrigerator/room temperature; daylight/darkness) and additions (sulfuric acid; ascorbic acid). The determination of these species was carried out by a modified spectrophotometric method, suitable for laboratory analysis as well as for field analysis. The results show that chemical oxidation and biochemical reduction can occur. Sulfuric acid is favourable for the stabilization of total arsenic and of the inorganic species.     

内蒙古东南部地区夏季旱涝的环流特征分析及预测

主要从与内蒙古东南部地区(指赤峰市和通辽市)夏季旱涝关系密切的西太平洋副高、亚洲地区环流和蒙古冷涡三个主要的天气系统入手,分析旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明:⑴夏季蒙古冷涡偏多、副热带高压偏强和北半球盛行经向环流,是造成夏季降水偏多的主要环流形势;⑵冬季北半球极涡纬度和亚洲地区的环流指数对夏季环流形势有一定的指示意义;二者相互动态地影响了夏季旱涝,据此建立夏季旱涝预测模型。经过1995—2008年14年的实际应用,趋势准确率为85.7%。     

Behavior of drag anchor in clay with linearly increasing shear strength under unidirectional and combined loading

Drag anchor is a widely used economical anchor option for offshore floating structures. The anchor behavior under unidirectional loading and combined loading is important for anchor selection. The anchor behavior under combined loading, characterized by the yield envelope, can also be used for the prediction of anchor installation, which is still an issue in anchor design. However, most existing studies on anchor capacity are for plate anchors which focused only on the anchor pullout capacity in soil with uniform shear strength. The behavior of drag anchor under unidirectional and combined loading in soil with linearly increasing shear strength profile is seldom investigated. The current 2D finite element studies investigate the anchor behavior for a horizontal anchor fluke in clay with linearly increasing shear strength under unidirectional vertical, horizontal and rotational loadings first. Then based on the results of anchor unidirectional loading behavior, the yield envelopes for anchor under combined loading for both shallow and deep embedded flukes are studied. The effect of anchor embedment depth, soil non- homogeneity, soil overburden pressure and the soil/anchor interface breakaway conditions are studied to provide insight for drag anchor design.     

Coalbed methane reservoirs’ pore-structure characterization of different macrolithotypes in the southern Junggar Basin of Northwest China

Coalbed methane (CBM) development in the southern Junggar Basin of Northwest China has aroused extensive attention owing to its significant resource potential. The accurate characterization of coal pore structure is important for CBM exploration and production. In order to explore the relationship between coal pore structure and macrolithotype, which has rarely been studied in the southern Junggar Basin, a series of laboratory experiments were performed on eight samples of different macrolithotypes. The results show that the porosity exhibits regularity with macrolithotype in the order bright < semibright < semidull < dull, and also shows an increase with the rise of the inertinite content. The pore-size distribution results show that the dominating pores of bright and semibright coals are usually greater than that of dull and semidull coals in size. The pore-type analysis indicates that the bottleneck pores (Type B) are well developed in dull and semidull coals, while bright and semibright coals mainly host two sides (Type A), namely opened pores and one-side-closed pores (Type C). The pore-type and -size distribution strongly affect pore connectivity refers to the facts that: 1) the proportion of effective porosity increases with an increasing proportion of pores greater than 100 nm in size; and 2) that the mercury withdrawal efficiency is always lower when the pores are mostly of Type B. So the pore connectivity of semibright and bright coals is higher than that of semidull and dull coals. Furthermore, pores are developed mainly in the inertinite, with pore-type being dominated by Type B and C, secondly in the vitrinite, with pore-type being dominated by Type A and C, and less developed in the liptinite with pore-type of B and C. The pore connectivity of each maceral is in the order vitrinite > inertinite > liptinite. Finally, according to the research results, the reservoir fracturing improvement should be more arranged on the dull or semi-dull coals, and the producing layers should be bright or semi-bright coals as much as possible on the premise that the gas contents of coal layers are not much different from each other.     

知识不确定条件下的海外保障基地自然风险情景模拟评估

针对海外保障基地面临的自然风险,在风险辨识基础上,构建了风险评价指标体系和海外保障基地自然风险的贝叶斯网络评估模型,并进行了情景模拟下的量化实验评估。针对目前贝叶斯网络评估过程中的群决策和决策偏好问题,引入了犹豫层次分析思想来优化计算指标风险隶属度,改进了评估过程中的客观性和适用性。     

东太平洋CC区西区表层沉积物黏土矿物和地球化学特征

本文以太平洋CC区西区12个表层沉积物样品作为研究对象,对其粒度、化学组分和矿物成分进行分析,讨论其沉积环境和物质来源。研究区地处深海,主要以深海黏土和硅钙质黏土为主,含有少量的硅质黏土、黏土质硅质软泥和黏土质钙质软泥。黏土矿物成分主要是蒙皂石和伊利石,含有部分的高岭石和绿泥石。黏土矿物组成表明,区内沉积物主要是陆源,由高空气流携带而来,南极底流和热液活动对其物源的来源有一定影响。沉积物地球化学特征也表明,物源以陆源为主,稀土元素分布曲线和北太平洋表层海水稀土曲线类似,且表现出强的Ce亏损,表明生物活动导致的生物沉降对表层沉积物也有一定的影响。