DQM2000d、UGM05和EGM2008地球重力场模型精度比较

给出由地球重力场模型计算重力异常和垂线偏差的公式,利用36阶、360阶、1 800阶DQM 2000d、UGM 05以及EGM 2008地球重力场模型计算国内某地区格网点重力异常和地面垂线偏差,并将其与实测数据进行比较,从而对三种模型的精度进行评估。结果表明,在表示国内某地区格网点重力异常时,UGM 05模型精度最高,DQM 2000d模型精度次之,EGM 2008模型精度最低;在表示地面垂线偏差时,三种模型的精度相当。     

Konzepte zur Mobilitätsabschätzung von Schadstoffen in Boden- und Abfallmaterialien

Concepts for the Evaluation of Contaminant Mobility in Soil and Waste Materials Elution tests (S4, pH_stat, and SDS test) are presented, enabling the evaluation of the mobility of hydrophilic/hydrophobic and inorganic/organic contaminants in soil and waste materials. While elution tests for estimation of the mobilization potential of hydrophilic substances are performed following the pH_stat method, for hydrophobic species surfactant-containing eluents are used. The individual parameters of the elution process are selected assuming a "worst-case" scenario. In principle, because of economic reasons, detailed analytical investigations should be preceded by relevant screening tests.     

Cryospheric Changes and Their Impacts on Water Resources in the Belt and Road Regions

“Belt and Road” regions include Asia, Europe and eastern and northern Africa, with a wide spatial distribution. The cryosphere is undergoing rapid changes in the Belt and Road regions with global warming, and has an important impact on water resources, ecosystems and Arctic waterways in these regions. This article reviewed recent cryospheric changes and associated impacts on water resources in the Belt and Road regions during the last decades. The main cognitions are as follows: \mathrm{①} Most glaciers are shrinking and glacier mass balances are most negative, but there are regional differences in the changes of glaciers. \mathrm{②} Global temperature rise has resulted in permafrost degradation, including a rise in permafrost temperature and decreasing permafrost thickness as well as an increase in active layer thickness. \mathrm{③} There is a significant decrease in snow cover extent and an increase in snow depth. Snow cover duration has shortened, the onset of snow cover has delayed, and the end of snow cover has advanced. However, there are still obvious regional differences in the changes of snow cover. \mathrm{④} Arctic sea ice has declined precipitously in both extent and thickness in summer, and multi-year sea ice has decreased,indicating the precipitous retreat of sea ice. The freeze-up date of some lakes has been delayed, the break-up date has advanced, and the ice cover duration of river/lake ice has significantly shortened. \mathrm{⑤} Glacial runoff has increased significantly in China. Snowmelt and permafrost degradation have also increased the basin runoff, which indicates the important impact of cryospheric changes on runoff. This study will provide a baseline and important scientific support for addressing climate change and regional sustainable development.     

南方低山丘陵地区汛期短时强降水特征分析

研究汛期短时强降水特征,对于南方低山丘陵地区山洪灾害的预报具有重要指导意义。以怀化市为研究区域,基于该区域11个国家站和403个区域自动气象站的2012-2017年4-9月期间逐小时降水量以及相对应的NCEP资料,分析了怀化市短时强降水的时空分布特征,得出了产生短时强降水天气系统模型,结果显示：①汛期短时强降水发生频率较高,时间集中,分布不均。主要出现在5～7月,占4～9月的72.9%,其次在8～9月;北部频数多,中南部少,西部最少,辰溪、麻阳和怀化三县交界处及沅陵县的大合坪附近是频发区域。②短时强降水日变化呈单峰型,4～10时最容易发生,峰值在8时,谷值在23时。③强度越强出现的频次越少;北部的强度和次数大于其它区域;50～79.9 mm/h,占总站数的68.4%;各月国家站的极值乘以2约等于区域站极值。④低涡型短时强降水出现概率最高,低涡位置和移动路径是短时强降水预报的关键点。     

山东及邻区地震重新定位及其与活动构造的关系

Earthquakes taking place from 1975 to 2010 in and around Shandong Province are relocated using double-difference （HypoDD） and Hypoinvers 2000 （Hypo2000） methods, after correction of the onset times of seismic phases. The results show that the relocated seismicity is clearly associated with regional tectonics in space, and is also in agreement with the existence of deep faults imaged by wide-angle and deep seismic reflection profiling ; most of the focal depths are in the range of 5 - 25km, and there are clearly two predominant depths： 10km and 16km, which are inferred to be on the bottom of the upper crust and in the middle crust, respectively. The pattern of seismic activity indicates that moderate and strong earthquakes are likely to occur in the brittle-ductile transition zone between the upper and the lower crust, as the outcome of the deep tectonic dynamic process and the movement and deformation of faults in the upper and shallow crust under the regional stress field.     

国家地震烈度速报与预警工程定制软件总体设计

国家地震烈度速报与预警工程现已建设世界上规模最大的、总数超过15000个台站的地震烈度速报与预警观测站网。定制软件是预警工程的核心内容之一,将实现我国地震观测领域数据处理系统的全面升级。本文结合定制软件项目建设目标、业务功能需求等情况,从设计思路、总体架构、分系统功能、部署方式、性能指标和关键技术指标等方面对定制软件总体设计进行介绍。定制软件的总体设计契合预警业务功能需求,使得预警工程具备高稳定性、低延时、高可靠度、高处理性能的数据处理、紧急地震信息服务、数据综合服务和技术支持与保障能力,使地震预警和烈度速报两大功能得到落实,使工程项目的防震减灾效能得到切实体现。     

内蒙古东南部地区夏季旱涝的环流特征分析及预测

主要从与内蒙古东南部地区(指赤峰市和通辽市)夏季旱涝关系密切的西太平洋副高、亚洲地区环流和蒙古冷涡三个主要的天气系统入手,分析旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明:⑴夏季蒙古冷涡偏多、副热带高压偏强和北半球盛行经向环流,是造成夏季降水偏多的主要环流形势;⑵冬季北半球极涡纬度和亚洲地区的环流指数对夏季环流形势有一定的指示意义;二者相互动态地影响了夏季旱涝,据此建立夏季旱涝预测模型。经过1995—2008年14年的实际应用,趋势准确率为85.7%。     

2008年汶川MS8.0地震电离层图像信息长时程演化初探

应用改进的图像信息方法, 结合DEMETER电磁卫星的电子温度数据, 对2008年汶川M_S8.0地震进行了长时程的回溯性预测研究。 与以往的地震电离层演化图像提取异常的研究相比, 将其回溯的时程延长至震前近11个月, 并向震后延长48 d。 在长期连续的异常扰动演化图中, 出现了两个明显的异常时段, 且在震前2个月短期内异常扰动明显减弱并趋于背景值。 两个时段出现的异常扰动分布位置及其形态以及持续时间皆不重复, 这体现了前兆异常的不易确定, 难以定性及定量识别的特点。 电离层异常扰动特征的长时程研究, 有评估其预测参数和模型可靠性的实际作用, 也为应用中国卫星观测数据服务于地震预报等研究积累经验, 具有借鉴意义。     

2015年四川乐山金口河M5.0地震孕震构造条件分析

2015年1月14日乐山金口河M5.0地震发生在历史地震强度较低的川南山区与四川盆地交界一带。基于四川区域地震台网的震相报告与波形资料,采用双差定位法对地震序列进行重新定位,同时,采用CAP波形反演方法及HASH方法反演了主震及序列中8次M_L≥2.0地震的震源机制解。另外,利用Coulomb3计算了主震发生后库仑应力改变量,得到的结果如下：①重新定位结果显示,金口河M5.0地震位于（103.18°E,29.32°N）,震源深度16.6km,略深于波形反演结果（12km）。序列分布在NNW向天全-荥经断裂和NE向西河-美姑断裂的交汇部位,余震序列在空间上呈NE向展布。②M5.0主震的机制解为节面Ⅰ：走向350°/倾角46°/滑动角107°,节面Ⅱ：走向146°/倾角47°/滑动角73°,表现为走向NW（NNW）、中等倾角的逆冲型运动方式。序列中其余8次M_L≥2.0余震大多以走向NE的逆冲型地震为主,个别为走滑或正断层类型。主震和大部分余震的节面方向不一致,主震节面方向与余震长轴方向也不一致。③主震后库仑应力改变量显示,余震主要发生在主震引起的库仑破裂应力增加的区域。综合分析推测,NNW向天全-荥经断裂为本次地震主震的发震构造,倾向NE的机制解节面Ⅰ指出了该断裂的几何产状;M5.0主震发生后,立即触发了其旁侧的NE向西河-美姑断裂,并激发了多次余震。     

2018年9月8日云南墨江5.9级地震预测回顾与资料论证

通过分析墨江5.9级地震前预测意见和预测资料,认为云南地区M≥5.5地震平静异常突出,M≥5.0地震连续间隔时间达200天以上,通海2次5.0级地震震级偏小是震前地震活动异常的显著特征;通海地震的指示意义、前兆异常M≥5.7地震中期和M≥5.0地震短临综合预测指标是判断地震短期可能性的主要依据;1900年以来,通海50km范围内M≥5.0地震后云南地区发生M≥5.0地震优势对应关系和GNSS表征的区域面应变变化特征为地点判定提供了线索。墨江5.9级地震的预测经验及资料的论证丰富了对地震孕育复杂性的认识,为震例积累了新的资料。