西安地区(380-1983年)旱涝气候变化

依据历史记载,采用最优分割法、功率谱分析及谐波分析等方法,建立西安(古长安)地区近1604年的旱涝指数气候序列,探讨该地区旱涝气候特征及旱涝变化规律,并与相邻地区作了对比.     

中国大陆7级强震前地下流体前兆时空特征

对中国大陆1969年以来11次7级强震前地下流体前兆观测资料分阶段进行统计分析,并选用雷达图描述了中国大陆7级强震前地下流体前兆异常的时空特征,认为其特征主要表现在：异常出现时间上的阶段性与不均匀性,中长期趋势性异常分散,短临异常相对集中,且各占总异常比例的50％左右;震前异常集中在一定的范围内,并沿活动断裂呈现出一定的集中性;中长期趋势异常较早出现在震源区附近,并呈现出由震源区向外围扩散-收缩-扩散-收缩的过程,特别是进入短临阶段后,异常向震源区收缩的趋势更为明显;在震源区(或在距震源较近的范围内)异常所占的比例大,远离震源区所占比例小,且有由震源区向外围逐渐减小的趋势。     

The Marmara Sea region: Seismic behaviour in time and the likelihood of another large earthquake near Istanbul (Turkey)

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) extends for about 1500 km from Karliova to the east, to the Egean Sea in the west. The Marmara region, located near the western end of the NAF, is a tectonically active zone characterized by the transition between a strike slip stress regime and an extensional one in the Aegean Sea. Microseismic studies performed around the Marmara Sea in 1995 [Tectonophysics 316, 2000, 1], and just before the 1999 Izmit Earthquake Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361;J. Seismol. 6, 2002b, 287) permitted the analysis of the evolution of seismicity connected to this destructive earthquake and its sequels. Several observations indicate that the aftershock distribution fits well the EW orientation of the NAF, but the ruptures are not simple and linear as a first glance would suggest. Instead they are segmented in at least five pieces as shown by the slip variation and aftershock clusters, showing complexity at different scales (Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361). There is still a gap, across the northern border of the Marmara Sea that has not ruptured, and this is the only sector that did not break on the NAF since the 1939 great Erzincan earthquake. Will it rupture as a whole with a large magnitude earthquake, or by segments with smaller magnitude events? The Hurst analysis of the overall behaviour of the seismicity in the Marmara region since historical times shows that if a large earthquake occurs in the near future, it might break the complete gap. The Hurst character of the time variation of seismicity is persistent with H= 0.82. The aftershocks of the 1999 Izmit earthquake can be analyzed by using the Hurst method, showing an exceptionally high persistent memory.     

淮海经济区城市竞争力定量评析

文章首先构建用来测度淮海经济区城市竞争力的指标体系,接着运用因子分析方法,对淮海经济区17个样本城市的竞争力进行计算,求出各城市的竞争力综合得分;然后通过聚类分析将17个样本城市的竞争力划分为强、较强、较弱、弱4类并相应地做出评价。其主要结论为：(1)大多数城市的竞争力得分值偏低;(2)各城市之间的竞争力得分有较大差距,徐州城市竞争力得分最高,排名前5位的徐州、临沂、枣庄、济宁、泰安与其后诸城市差距甚大。     

汶川地震重灾区泥石流沟内崩滑物空间分布的RS-GIS定量方法

汶川地震在山区引发大量崩塌、滑坡,形成大量的固体松散碎屑物质堆积在沟谷内(CLCAR,崩滑碎屑区),使得地震山区泥石流活动性增强。以岷江上游四川省汶川县银杏乡、映秀镇的15条泥石流沟的SPOT遥感影像为基础,利用GIS技术对CLCAR空间分布进行分析。建立CLCAR与流域高程、主沟侧距和沟口纵距的分布函数T(x)、M(x)和G(x),对CLCAR的空间分布特征进行描述;并计算其积分(DT、DM和DG)作为CLCAR空间分布特征的定量化参数。结果表明,函数T(x)、M(x)和G(x)能够较全面描述CLCAR的空间分布特征,DT、DM和DG能够作为CLCAR空间分布特征的定量化参数。泥石流沟谷内CLCAR的空间分布对泥石流的形成及规模具有一定的影响;在对灾区泥石流研究时有必要考虑泥石流沟内CLCAR空间分布特征。     

中国不同气候区域Hargreaves模型的修正

在计算参考作物蒸散量的模型中,FAO Penman-Monteith模型计算准确但需要气象参量过多,而Hargreaves模型只需要气温数据却无法保证较高的准确性。为了提高Hargreaves模型在中国不同气候类型条件下的适用性,以FAO Penman-Monteith模拟值为参考,建立了Hargreaves模型的修正系数。CLIMWAT数据库中156个站点的应用表明,修正前R2、RMSE分别为88.1%、3.803mm/d,修正后分别为97.3%、0.233mm/d;北京站多年的应用表明,修正前R2、RMSE分别为94.4%、4.861mm/d,修正后分别为97.2%、0.442mm/d。在此基础上,利用GIS分区运算工具建立了中国不同气候区域的修正系数表。研究结果有助于提高常规气象观测条件下(无风速、辐射观测)不同气候区域参考作物蒸散量的估算精度。     

How to Design and Present Texts to Cultivate Balanced Regional Images in Geography Education

This article examines possibilities associated with the cultivation of balanced regional images via the use of simple methods. Two experiments based on the primacy effect and the painting picture rule, or visual depiction of regions, were conducted. The results show significant differences in the formation of regional images. More specifically, the presentation of positive prior knowledge and the depiction of regional aspects with strong visual cues led to the formation of regional images that were more balanced. In conclusion, these simple teaching methods are effective for cultivating balanced regional images, an important element of geography education.     

中国黄土高原塬区表层土壤水分盈缺状况的研究

陆地表层水分的盈缺直接关系到局地气候变化.本文利用黄土高原塬区初夏至盛夏期两次陆面过程野外试验(LOess Plateau land surface process field EXperiment 2005,LOPEX05和LOPEX06)的野外试验观测资料,分析了试验期间黄土高原白庙塬区不同下垫面的水分蒸散和表层土壤水分盈缺状况.结果表明:在土壤水分比较充足的条件下,植被蒸腾增加量在正午时的峰值为0.05 mm·h-1,而较大降水发生后的首个晴日.冬小麦地和裸地的蒸散分别可达4.60 mm·d-和3.70 mm·d-1.局地降水是影响陆面蒸散量变化的主要因素,而植被冠层的存在增加了陆面蒸散发量中的植物蒸腾量值.2006年4月下旬到7月中旬,裸地的水分缺失为16.3 mm·m2,冬小麦地的水分缺失为39.9mm·m2.其中缺失最严重的时间段为5月下旬到6月上旬,最大旬缺失量达16.5 mm·m2,7月上旬和中旬,由于降水季节来临,土壤水分有少量盈余.在2005年7月中旬至8月下旬,玉米地和裸地的水分盈余分别为17.9 mm·m2和25.3 mm·m2.不同时间尺度的统计均表明,降水不仅是影响陆面蒸散量的主要因素,而且也是表层土壤水分盈缺的决定性因子.     

卫星遥感结合地面观测资料对中国西北干旱区地表热力输送系数的估算

本文利用黑河野外试验 (HEIFE) 地面观测资料, 采用空气动力学方法计算了干旱区内不同下垫面的地表热力输送系数CH, 结合由美国国家海洋和大气局 (NOAA) 系列卫星遥感观测的反映地表植被特征的归一化差值植被指数 (NDVI) 资料, 经拟合得到了针对我国西北干旱区不同下垫面的CH-NDVI参数化关系式, 并对此关系式进行了合理性检验。结果表明: 对于区域尺度而言, 在缺乏用其他方法获得较准确的区域CH值的情况下, 利用卫星遥感结合地面观测资料对其估算是较为可靠的方法。     

黄河源区草地退化对局地气候环境影响的数值模拟

土地覆盖变化会影响到近地层各气象要素发生不同程度的变化.利用中尺度数值模式MM5,设计了一个控制试验和一个敏感性试验.通过对2003年7月一个月的积分,模拟了黄河源区草原退化对局地气候环境的影响.结果表明,黄河源区草原退化导致该地区2 m高度气温及地表温度明显升高;空气湿度及土壤湿度不同程度减小;草原退化后降水的减小影响到径流减小;草原退化后还引起退化区感热通量增加,潜热通量减小,有效通量(感热通量+潜热通量)减小.与草地农牧化相比,草原退化对气候环境的影响程度更强.