Long-term variations in the second sectorial Stokes harmonics on the basis of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry between 1993 and 2000

The long-term variations in the second degree sectorial Stokes parameters of the geopotential have been determined from TOPEX-POSEIDON (T/P) satellite altimeter data, covering the period of January 1, 1993 to January 3, 2001 (T/P cycles 11-305). It is the first attempt to determine the variations in the second sectorial harmonics in the Earth’s inertia tensor due to the ocean dynamics. The variations amount to about 1 × 10⁻¹⁰ (J ₂ ⁽²⁾ ≈ 1.6 × 10⁻⁶ and S ₂ ⁽²⁾ ≈ −0.9 × 10⁻⁶). The variations are about 5% of the tidal effect. This corresponds to variations in the directions of the equatorial axes of the Earth’s inertia ellipsoid of up to 10 arc-seconds. Consequently, the annual and semi-annual variations of the Earth’s equatorial flattening is about 10⁻⁹; i.e. it corresponds to a change of 8 units of its denominator of 91 030. (The equatorial flattening ≈ 1/91 030). Since the coverage of the Earth’s ocean surface is not worldwide, and the inclination of T/P is i = 66°, it is only 58.2% (min. depth of the ocean 2 000 m) of the Earth’s surface which is processed, the torque, resulting from the seasonal transfer of masses within a sea surface layer, is not zero. It amounts up to 10¹⁶ kg m²s⁻², which is comparable to the total indirect tidal torque due to the Moon and the Sun, ∼ 3.9 × 10¹⁶ kg m²s⁻². However, the above estimate strongly depends on the adopted thickness of the sea surface layer, ΔR = 50 m. For a larger thickness of ΔR = 100 m, the seasonal torque amounts to about ∼ 2.3 × 10¹⁶ kg m²s⁻².     

Characteristic scales, temporal variability modes and simulation of monthly Elbe River flow time series at ungauged locations

Spatial and temporal patterns of the long-range extreme monthly Elbe River flows across Germany are investigated, using various statistical methods, among others, principal component and wavelet analysis. Characteristic time scales are derived for various time series statistics. The wavelet analysis of the raw river discharge data as well as of the major principal component reveal the main oscillatory components and their temporal behavior, namely low frequency oscillations at interannual (6.9 yr) and interdecadal (13.9 yr) scales. The EOFs at ungauged stations are estimated from the principal components of the observed time series sampled over a limited time span whose length equals the major temporal variability scale (≈7 yr). The EOFs (empirical orthogonal functions) obtained in this way are subsequently used to simulate long-range flows at these locations. A comparison of this method with linear interpolation and ordinary kriging of the EOF shows the superiority of the former in representing the distributional properties of the observed time series. The simulated time series preserve also short and long-memory.     

A Critical Analysis of a Recent Test of the Lense–Thirring Effect with the LAGEOS Satellites

In this paper, we quantitatively discuss the impact of the current uncertainties in the even zonal harmonic coefficients J _l of the Newtonian part of the terrestrial gravitational potential on the measurement of the general relativistic Lense–Thirring effect. We use a suitable linear combination of the nodes Ω of the laser-ranged LAGEOS and LAGEOS-II satellites. The one-sigma systematic error due to mismodelling of the J _l coefficients ranges from ~ 4% for the EIGEN−GRACE02S gravity field model to ~ 9% for the GGM02S model. Another important source of systematic error of gravitational origin is represented by the secular variations j _l of the even zonal harmonics. While the relativistic and J _l signals are linear in time, the shift due to j _l is quadratic. We quantitatively assess their impact on the measurement of the Lense–Thirring effect with numerical simulations obtaining a 10−20% one-sigma total error over 11 years for EIGEN-GRACE02S. Ciufolini and Pavlis (Nature 431:958–960, 2004) claim a total error of 5% at the one-sigma level.     

Temporal and spatial variations of δ18O in precipitation of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin

This paper reveals the temporal and spatial variations of stable isotope in precipita-tion of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin based on the variations of δ18O in precipitation at four stations (Lhaze, Nugesha, Yangcun and Nuxia) in 2005. The results show that δ18O of pre-cipitation has distinct seasonal changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin. The higher value of δ18O occurs in spring prior to monsoon precipitation, and the lower value occurs during monsoon precipitation. From the spatial variations, with the altitude-effect and rainout process during moisture transport along the Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, 18O of precipitation is gradually depleted. Thus, δ18O of precipitation decreases gradually from the downstream to the upstream, and the lapse rate of δ18O in precipitation is approximately 0.34‰/100m and 0.7‰/100km for the two reasons. During monsoon precipitation, spatial variation of δ18O in precipitation is dominated by the amount effect in the large scale synoptic condition.     

Geospatial–temporal dependence among weekly precipitation extremes with applications to observations and climate model simulations in South America

A quantification of the spatio-temporal dependence among precipitation extremes is important for investigating the properties of intense storms as well as flood or flash-flood related hazards. Extreme value theory has been widely applied to the hydrologic sciences and hydraulic engineering. However, rigorous approaches to quantify dependence structures among extreme values in space and time have not been reported in the literature. Previous researchers have quantified the dependence among extreme values through the concept of (pairwise bivariate) tail dependence coefficients. For estimation of the tail dependence coefficients, we apply a recently developed method [Kuhn G. On dependence and extremes. PhD thesis (Advisor: C. Klüppelberg), Munich University of Technology, 2006] which utilized the multivariate tail dependence function of a subclass of elliptical copulas. This study extends the previous approach in the context of space and time by considering pairs of spatial grids in South America and quantifying the dependence among precipitation extremes based on the time series at each spatial grid. In addition, Kendall’s τ is used to estimate the pairwise copula correlation (for an elliptical copula) of precipitation between all grids in South America. The geospatial–temporal dependence measures are applied to precipitation observations from 1940 to 2005 as well as simulations from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) for 1940–2099. New insights are obtained regarding the spatio-temporal dependence structures for precipitation over South America both with regard to correlation as well as tail dependence.     

时态土地利用变更管理系统的设计与建立

根据土地利用的时空特点和建立的时空数据模型,运用地理信息技术中的拓扑学关系,将点、线、面这些空间数据与一定的属性数据相连接,处理点线、线线、线面等的空间关系,从而实现对土地变更数据的计算机管理。     

Spatial and temporal variations of spatial population accessibility to public hospitals: a case study of rural–urban comparison

Quantification and assessment of nationwide population access to health-care services is a critical undertaking for improving population health and optimizing the performance of national health systems. Rural–urban unbalance of population access to health-care services is widely involved in most of the nations. This unbalance is also potentially affected by varied weather and road conditions. This study investigates the rural and urban performances of public health system by quantifying the spatiotemporal variations of accessibility and assessing the impacts of potential factors. Australian health-care system is used as a case study for the rural–urban comparison of population accessibility. A nationwide travel time-based modified kernel density two-step floating catchment area (MKD2SFCA) model is utilized to compute accessibility of travel time within 30, 60, 120, and 240 min to all public hospitals, hospitals that provide emergency care, and hospitals that provide surgery service, respectively. Results show that accessibility is varied both temporally and spatially, and the rural–urban unbalance is distinct for different types of hospitals. In Australia, from the perspective of spatial distributions of health-care resources, spatial accessibility to all public hospitals in remote and very remote areas is not lower (and may even higher) than that in major cities, but the accessibility to hospitals that provide emergency and surgery services is much higher in major cities than other areas. From the angle of temporal variation of accessibility to public hospitals, reduction of traffic speed is 1.00–3.57% due to precipitation and heavy rain, but it leads to 18–23% and 31–50% of reduction of accessibility in hot-spot and cold-spot regions, respectively, and the impact is severe in New South Wales, Queensland, and Northern Territory during wet seasons. Spatiotemporal analysis for the variations of accessibility can provide quantitative and accurate evidence for geographically local and dynamic strategies of allocation decision-making of medical resources and optimizing health-care systems both locally and nationally.     

Diurnal and seasonal variations of CO2 fluxes and their climate controlling factors for a subtropical forest in Ningxiang

In this study, the diurnal and seasonal variations of CO2 fluxes in a subtropical mixed evergreen forest in Ningxiang of Hunan Province, part of the East Asian monsoon region, were quantified for the first time. The fluxes were based on eddy covariance measurements from a newly initiated flux tower. The relationship between the CO2 fluxes and climate factors was also analyzed. The results showed that the target ecosystem appeared to be a clear carbon sink in 2013, with integrated net ecosystem CO2exchange(NEE), ecosystem respiration(RE), and gross ecosystem productivity(GEP) of-428.8, 1534.8 and1963.6 g C m-2yr-1, respectively. The net carbon uptake(i.e. the-NEE), RE and GEP showed obvious seasonal variability,and were lower in winter and under drought conditions and higher in the growing season. The minimum NEE occurred on12 June(-7.4 g C m-2d-1), due mainly to strong radiation, adequate moisture, and moderate temperature; while a very low net CO2 uptake occurred in August(9 g C m-2month-1), attributable to extreme summer drought. In addition, the NEE and GEP showed obvious diurnal variability that changed with the seasons. In winter, solar radiation and temperature were the main controlling factors for GEP, while the soil water content and vapor pressure deficit were the controlling factors in summer. Furthermore, the daytime NEE was mainly limited by the water-stress effect under dry and warm atmospheric conditions, rather than by the direct temperature-stress effect.     

1951-2016年秦巴山区霜期变化的时空特征分析

依据秦巴山区96个气象站点1951—2016年逐日最低气温数据,利用一元线性回归、M-K突变检验法和Cressman插值法分析了初、终霜日和霜期变化的时空特征,并对终霜日和霜期的变化趋势及其与海拔高度的关系进行了分析,结果表明:在时间变化上,秦巴山区平均初霜日呈现出推迟的趋势,且在1960年左右发生了显著突变,而平均终霜日则与之相反,表现出提前的趋势,平均霜期也呈现出显著的减少趋势,且在20世纪60年代中期至70年代末期间表现得十分明显;空间变化上,秦巴山区初霜日和霜期呈现出较大的南北差异,而终霜日则表现为较大的东西差异;在与海拔分布的关系上,秦巴山区部分地区终霜日和霜期的变化趋势有明显的海拔依赖性,表现为西部和中东部地区终霜日的变化趋势随海拔高度的增加而减少,北部地区霜期的变化趋势随着海拔高度的增加而减少。