南海礼乐盆地礁体水热循环及其对地温场的影响

南海礼乐盆地自渐新世以来持续发育碳酸盐岩礁体,礁体区地温场可能受到礁体与周围低温海水间水热循环的扰动.为了解礁体与周围海水间的热交换过程及其对礁体区地温场的影响,以便从位于礁体区的钻井测温数据中提取深部热信息,本文以过礁体区S-1井的地震剖面为基础,在流热耦合条件下对礁体内的水热活动进行数值模拟.结果表明,礁体与海水间存在水热交换,该水热活动对礁体区温度场有明显的扰动,使得礁体上部温度和地温梯度明显降低,进入礁体下伏地层后,地温梯度逐渐趋于正常;水热循环对礁体区地温场的影响程度与礁体的厚度和渗透率密切相关,礁体厚度越大、渗透率越高,礁体及其下伏地层温度越低;计算剖面中,2100 m厚礁体之下可能存在约400 m厚、渗透率约为3×10^-12 m²的高渗碎屑岩层,高渗层上覆礁体平均渗透率估计介于1×10^-13~5×10^-12 m²之间.分析表明,在受水热活动影响的礁体区,礁体下伏地层中的热流可近似代表礁体区的深部热背景,S-1钻井深部热流介于65~75 mW·m^-2之间.

     

近500年西沙群岛海面温度年际变化的珊瑚记录及其环境意义

在南海西沙群岛（15.76°~17.13°N,111.18°~112.90°E）5条年分辨率的滨珊瑚生长率（即每年生长宽度,mm/a或cm/a）序列和4个U-Th年龄的基础上,根据珊瑚生长率与器测海温的显著正相关关系特征并建立的转换方程,定量重建了近500年（1520~2007 A.D.）连续的年分辨率的西沙海温历史。这一时期的海温变化可以分为两个主要阶段：1）1520~1825 A.D.以小幅波动为主,略有下降（-0.21±0.07 ℃）。2）1826~2007 A.D.整体呈上升趋势（0.93±0.15 ℃）,其中1826~1899 A.D.快速上升（1.0±0.13 ℃）;1900~1971 A.D.小幅波动,略有下降（-0.16±0.19 ℃）;1972~2007 A.D.再次上升（0.55±0.30 ℃）。同时,近500年来西沙海温具有显著的年际、十年际和多年代际周期,分别对应于ENSO、太阳活动和太平洋多年代际涛动（PDO）。珊瑚生长率记录的西沙海域持续升温始于1820年代后期,与西太平洋暖池区的升温起始时间相当,但略早于全球其他区域,体现了南海海域对赤道海域海洋环境变化的敏感响应。

     

利用混合海气耦合模式的气候异常预报试验

用混合海气耦合模式长期积分的模拟结果, 分析了模式大气的年际变化性; 用1979~1994年间的“回报”个例, 探讨了该模式对ENSO引起的全球气候异常的预报。结果表明:模式能较好地再现与ENSO相关的全球大气环流的年际变化特征; 对预报而言, 模式较高的预报技巧主要分布在热带地区, 全球热带大气具有较稳定的1年左右的可预报时效; 基本上可预报中、高纬地区由ENSO引起的冬、夏季大气环流异常 (包括气温和降水), 超前时间可达9个月至1年。     

Climate change and the effect of temperature backlashes causing frost damage in Picea abies

In boreal and nemoboreal forests, tree frost hardiness is modified in reaction to cues from day length and temperature. The dehardening processes in Norway spruce, Picea abies, could be estimated to start when the daily mean temperature is above 5 °C for 5 days. Bud burst will occur approximately after 120–170 degree-days above 5 °C, dependent on genetic differences among provenances. A reduced cold hardiness level during autumn and spring and an advanced onset of bud burst are expected impacts of projected future global warming. The aim of this study was to test if this will increase the risk for frost damage caused by temperature backlashes. This was tested for Sweden by comparing output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model, HadRM3H, for the period 1961–1990 with future IPCC scenario SRES A2 and B2 for 2070–2099. Different indices for calculating the susceptibility to frost damage were used to assess changes in frost damage risk. The indices were based on: (1) the start of dehardening; (2) the severity of the temperature backlash; (3) the timing of bud burst; and (4) the cold hardiness level. The start of dehardening and bud burst were calculated to occur earlier all over the country, which is in line with the overall warming in both climate change scenarios. The frequency of temperature backlashes that may cause frost damage was calculated to increase in the southern part, an effect that became gradually less pronounced towards the north. The different timing of the onset of dehardening mainly caused this systematic latitudinal pattern. In the south, it occurs early in the year when the seasonal temperature progression is slow and large temperature variations occur. In the north, dehardening will occur closer to the spring equinox when the temperature progression is faster.     

Seasonal cycle of topography in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea and its relationships with atmospheric forcing and oceanic adjustment based on altimetry data

Seasonal cycle is the most significant signals of topography and circulation in the Bohai Sea (BS)and Yellow Sea (YS) forced by prevailing monsoon and is still poorly understood due to lack of data in their interiors. In the present study, seasonal cycles of topography in the BS and YS and its relationship with atmospheric forcing and oceanic adjustment were examined and discussed using TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-I/2 Sea Level Anomalies (SLA) data. Analyses revealed complicated seasonal cycles of topography composed mainly of 2 REOF modes, the winter-summer mode (WlM) and spring-autumn mode (SAM). The WlM with action center in the BS displayed peak and southward pressure gradient in July, and valley and northward pressure gradient in January, which is obviously the direct response to monsoon with about l-month response time. The SAM with action center in the western south YS displayed peak and northward pressure gradient in October and valley and southward pressure gradient in April. After the mature period of monsoon, the action center in the BS becam eweakened while that in the western south YS became strengthened because of regional convergence or divergence induced by seasonal variations of the Taiwan Warm Current and Yellow Sea Coastal Current. The direct response of topography to monsoon resulted in the WIM, while oceanic adjustment of topography played an important role in the forming of the SAM.     

一种提取弱异常的方法

本文提出一种基于互相关原理的提取弱异常的方法,用于从复杂异常形态中提取出有用的弱异常,给出了应用实例.     

地下流体异常性质定量判别方法探索与地震预报

采用异常频次累加法和异常频次变化速率法研究了中强地震前后一定范围内地下流体群体异常随时间的演化特征．结果表明：地震前后地下流体异常频次累加曲线和变化速率曲线变化特征表现为“平稳（零值波动）—加速（连续正值）—恢复（连续负值）”３个阶段;地震与异常的关系表现为“加速（连续正值）—地震”的形式．利用该方法可以对地下流体异常性质（即非震异常、震前异常和震后异常）进行一定程度的定量判别．     

Determination of depths to centroids of three-dimensional sources of potential-field anomalies with examples from environmental and geologic applications

A method is developed for determining the depth to the centroid (the geometric center) of ‘semi-compact' sources. The method, called the anomaly attenuation rate (AAR) method, involves computing radial averages of AARs with increasing distances from a range of assumed source centers. For well-isolated magnetic anomalies from ‘semi-compact' sources, the theoretical AARs range from 2 (close to the sources) to 3 (in the far-field region); the corresponding theoretical range of AARs for gravity anomalies is 1 to 2. When the estimated source centroid is incorrect, the AARs either exceed or fall short of the theoretical values. The levelling-off of the far-field AARs near their theoretical maximum values indicates the upper (deeper) bound of the centroid location. Similarly, near-field AARs lower than the theoretical minimum indicate the lower (shallower) bound of the centroid location. It is not always possible to determine usable upper and lower bounds of the centroids because the method depends on characteristics of sources/anomalies and the noise level of the data. For the environmental magnetic examples considered in this study, the determined deeper bounds were within 4% of the true centroid-to-observation distance. For the case of the gravity anomaly from the Bloomfield Pluton, Missouri, USA, determination of only the shallower bound of the centroid location (7 km) was possible. This estimate agrees closely with the centroid of a previously determined three-dimensional model of the Bloomfield Pluton. For satellite magnetic anomalies, the method is appropriate only for high-amplitude, near-circular anomalies due to the inherent low signal-to-noise ratio of satellite magnetic anomalies. Model studies indicate that the AAR method is able to place depths within ±20–30 km of actual center locations from a 400-km observation altitude. Thus, the method may be able to discriminate between upper crustal, lower crustal, and mantle magnetic sources. The results from the prominent Kentucky anomaly are relatively well-resolved (centroid depth 30 km below the Earth's surface). For the Kiruna Magsat anomaly, the deleterious effects from neighboring anomalies make a determination difficult (possible depth could be between 20 and 30 km). The centroid depths are deeper for the Kursk anomaly (40–50 km). These depths may indicate that magnetic anomalies from the near-surface Kursk iron formations (a known contributor) and deep crustal magnetic sources could combine to form the Kursk Magsat anomaly.     

THE EXCITING MECHANISM OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION TO EL NINO EVENT

The data analyses indicated that the occurrence of EL Nino event is closely related to intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in the tropical atmosphere: The intraseasonal oscillation is very strong in tile tropics (particularly over the equatorial western Pacific) prior to the occurrence of El Nino; But the ISO is evidently reduced and the quasistationary system is enhanced after the outbreak of El Nino. A simple air-sea coupled model study shows that the periodical self-excited oscillation can be produced in the air-sea-coupled system, but the pattern is different from the observed ENSO mode. When there is external (atmospheric) forcing with interannual time scale, a coupled mode, which looks like the ENSO mode, will be excited in the air-sea system. Synthesizing the results in data analyses and the theoretical investigation. the mechanism of ISO in the tropical atmosphere exciting the El Nino event can be suggested : The interannual anomalies (variations) of the tropical ISO play an important role in the exciting El Nino event through the air-sea interaction.     

中国东部夏季雨带类型与前期北半球500 hPa环流异常的关系

根据1951～1986年的资料,在文献[1]对中国东部夏季（6～8月）雨带分布类型的基础上,分析了各雨型与前期北半球500 hPa环流异常的关系。重点研究了各雨型的长期天气过程。发现不同雨型前期环流有不同的长期演变过程。指出中高纬和低纬环流不同季节变异及其相互作用,可能是导致中国东部各种雨带分布类型的一个重要因素。并提出了一些预报线索,可供夏季我国大范围旱涝趋势的长期预报参考。