21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展

由于极端天气气候事件的严重影响，越来越多的研究开始关注其变化情况。从观测分析到模拟研究，几乎都发现极端气温、降水事件发生了显著变化，而且在全球变暖的大背景下，未来有些极端事件可能会发生频数更高或强度更强。当然，研究结论也存在一定程度的不确定性，从模式模拟来看，目前模拟结果仍存在不确定性，不同模式的结果间常常存在较大的差异；而从观测分析来看，研究主要局限于20世纪后半叶，如果对更长时间作分析，结论或许会有所不同。文章从最基本的极端天气气候事件的定义出发，结合观测事实和模拟研究两个主要方面来介绍近几年来极端事件研究取得的主要进展，最后简单地总结了这些进展，并提出了进一步研究的思路。      

北祁连西段熬油沟及卡洼沟一带Au、Pt、Pd异常特征及找矿方向

北祁连西段作为甘肃一个重要的多金属成矿带，随着地质找矿工作不断地加强，日渐重要。根据熬油沟及卡洼沟一带水系沉积物、岩屑和岩石剖面测量结果，对Au、Pt、Pd和Pb、Zn等成矿元素的分布特征和组合关系进行了分析，总结了该处成矿地质背景和地球化学异常特征，指出了找矿方向。     

纳米级微粒地球化学测量中异常重现性研究

纳米级微粒测量是寻找隐伏矿的新方法,选取实地模拟实验和在已知隐伏矿区,利用液态捕集剂和等离子体质谱分析测试样品,进行重复测量试验,研究结果表明,不同成矿元素,在地表形成异常的运移富集速率不同,其运移速率主要取决于纳米级微粒本身的地球化学性质,地下上升气流、断裂等裂隙有利于微粒的上升运移富集;纳米级微粒地球化学重复测量时,异常可具有良好的重现性,但异常重现较常规气体缓慢,通常需要2~3个月。     

断层失稳错动热场前兆模式：雁列断层的实验研究

在实验室使用红外热像仪和接触式测温仪同步观测记录了压性和张性雁列断层失稳错动前后的热场变化过程.从实验记录中发现，在断层失稳引起温度场和热红外辐射亮温温度场上升之前，在两断层段之间的岩桥区发生降温变化.断层带开始升温发生在失稳前2～3 s内，岩桥区的降温却发生在失稳前约20s，这两个超前时间长度相差近一个量级.此类热场先降后升变化过程在雁列构造变形中有一定的普遍性，可能作为雁列断层失稳错动的热场前兆模式.根据实验观测结果，详细描述了上述热场变化的时间过程及其空间分布特征，分析了产生此种失稳前兆模式的机制，显著异常出现的条件及有利观测部位，讨论了它在地震前兆探索等研究中的意义.     

Analysis and modeling of the seasonal South China Sea temperature cycle using remote sensing

The present paper describes the analysis and modeling of the South China Sea (SCS) temperature cycle on a seasonal scale. It investigates the possibility to model this cycle in a consistent way while not taking into account tidal forcing and associated tidal mixing and exchange. This is motivated by the possibility to significantly increase the model’s computational efficiency when neglecting tides. The goal is to develop a flexible and efficient tool for seasonal scenario analysis and to generate transport boundary forcing for local models. Given the significant spatial extent of the SCS basin and the focus on seasonal time scales, synoptic remote sensing is an ideal tool in this analysis. Remote sensing is used to assess the seasonal temperature cycle to identify the relevant driving forces and is a valuable source of input data for modeling. Model simulations are performed using a three-dimensional baroclinic-reduced depth model, driven by monthly mean sea surface anomaly boundary forcing, monthly mean lateral temperature, and salinity forcing obtained from the World Ocean Atlas 2001 climatology, six hourly meteorological forcing from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 dataset, and remotely sensed sea surface temperature (SST) data. A sensitivity analysis of model forcing and coefficients is performed. The model results are quantitatively assessed against climatological temperature profiles using a goodness-of-fit norm. In the deep regions, the model results are in good agreement with this validation data. In the shallow regions, discrepancies are found. To improve the agreement there, we apply a SST nudging method at the free water surface. This considerably improves the model’s vertical temperature representation in the shallow regions. Based on the model validation against climatological in situ and SST data, we conclude that the seasonal temperature cycle for the deep SCS basin can be represented to a good degree. For shallow regions, the absence of tidal mixing and exchange has a clear impact on the model’s temperature representation. This effect on the large-scale temperature cycle can be compensated to a good degree by SST nudging for diagnostic applications.     

阿尔金山东段拉配泉地区区域物化探异常分布规律及找矿方向

在分析阿尔金区域地质和物化探异常资料的基础上,对阿尔金东段的构造特点和不同地层、岩石建造的成矿元素分布分配进行了分析和讨论,重点研究了阿尔金东段区域地球化学异常的分布规律和特点,分析和推断了引起Cu、Pb、Zn、Au、Ag等异常密集区带的地质因素,讨论了地球化学异常和区域成矿问题。认为阿尔金东段成矿潜力较大,并初步探讨了找矿方向。     

Crustal attenuation in the Southern Andean retroarc (38°–39°30′ S) determined from tectonic and gravimetric studies: The Lonco-Luán asthenospheric anomaly

The western retroarc of the Southern Andes between 38° and 40° S is formed by a NNW-elongated ridge not associated with stacked thrust sheets. On the contrary, during the last 4–3 Ma this ridge was affected by extensional deformation, regional uplift and related folding on a very broad scale. Receiver function analysis shows that the drainage divide area and adjacent retroarc lie over an attenuated crust. Expected crustal thickness at these latitudes is around 38 km, whereas in this part of the retroarc the thickness is less than 32 km. The causes for such attenuation have been linked to a moderate steepening of the subducted Nazca plate beneath the South American plate, which is suggested by a westward shift and narrowing of the magmatic arc during the last 4 to 5 Ma. Gravimetric studies show that the upper plate did not react homogeneously to slab steepening, but ancient sutures and lithospheric discontinuities deeply buried under Mesozoic to Cenozoic sequences in the retroarc were locally reactivated. These processes resulted in an asthenospheric anomaly that correlates at the surface with the area of Pliocene to Quaternary doming, widespread extension and three radial troughs. Two of the troughs have accommodated substantial amounts of extension, but the third was probably aborted at an early stage. Moreover, the presence of an anomalous concentration of calderas and large volcanic centers over the proposed asthenospheric anomaly, and their age distribution, may indicate minor migration of the asthenospheric anomaly between 4 and 2 Ma through the western South American plate.     

利用重力异常研究虎林盆地的构造分区和基底形态

首先应用MATLAB语言,编制了多边形法计算基底界面深度的程序,计算了一条基底界面深度。以区域地质资料和物性资料为依据,对黑龙江省虎林市幅1∶20万重磁场进行了综合分析。根据虎林盆地布格异常和区域场特征,结合重力异常和航磁异常等综合资料,按结晶基底起伏状态,将虎林盆地划分为3个隆起区,2个凹陷区。应用Sufer软件以及3D成图技术恢复出盆地基底起伏界面全貌。     

云南夏季旱涝与前期冬季环流变化的关系

夏季气候异常的前期信号特征分析一直是短期气候预测工作的重点。利用1948—2004年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料、1961—2004年云南124个站的月平均降水和1948—2003年英国Hadley中心的月平均海温资料, 分析了云南夏季旱涝的时空特征, 探讨了云南夏季旱涝与前期大气环流和大气热力状态变化的关系, 发现云南夏季旱涝前冬12月—1月, 特别是1月东亚中高纬度地区的大气环流变化和赤道附近高低层大气的热力状态对云南夏季旱涝有重要的指示意义, 当前冬东亚大槽强 (弱), 冬季风强 (弱), 赤道附近高低层大气温度偏低 (高) 时, 后期云南夏季降水偏多 (少)。同时, 初步探讨了东亚冬夏季风环流变化的相互联系及热带海温变化的可能影响, 指出冬季到夏季印度洋和赤道西太平洋地区持续的海温异常有可能通过改变夏季海陆的热力对比, 进而影响夏季风活动和云南夏季降水的变化。     

山东省近40a来的气温和降水变化趋势分析

本文利用非参数检验法(Mann-Kendall法)分析了山东省15个站点近40 a(1958—1998)来气温和降水的长期变化趋势。结果表明:全省气温除西南的莘县、兖州有下降趋势外,大部分地区呈现上升趋势,全省平均上升0.06℃/10a。分季情况为:春季和冬季气温有上升趋势,其中冬季气温上升对全省气温上升的贡献率最大。夏季气温基本保持不变,秋季气温有下降趋势。全省除济南降水量呈略微上升趋势外,其余地区的降水倾向率均为负值,全省的降水倾向率为-3.05 mm/a。表明山东省自1960年以来,年均降水量呈现减少趋势。减少幅度东南部大于西北部,以东南沿海平均减少幅度最大。