塔里木河下游生态输水效益的民意调查

生态保护与环境整治是塔里木河下游生态输水工程的主要目标,因此输水能否起到改善环境和推动地方经济的发展是社会各界所关注的一个热点问题。本文采用问卷调查的方法,试图真实反映生态输水工程的社会效益。结果表明:(1) 90%以上常年生活在当地的被调查者,感受到生态输水对其本人以及其生活的环境的积极影响,因此希望继续输水的人数超过82%。(2)超过76%的家庭年收入在输水后得到不同程度的增加,表明输水后环境的变化对当地经济起到了一定的促进作用。(3)从当地居民对输水工程的继续开展的支付意愿看,70%以上的居民都表现出愿意出劳动力的强烈愿望;愿意出钱的比例为15%,两者都愿意支付的比例为6%左右。这一方面说明当地居民对继续输水的强烈渴望,也说明恢复环境的支付意愿是与当地的经济发展水平和个人生活水平紧密联系的。(4)从居民对环境变化明显程度的选项看,输水前后生态环境变化的明显程度依次为:风沙强度减弱﹥风沙次数减少﹥树草长势好转﹥野生动物增多﹥树草数量增加,这与环境监测的结果基本一致。总之,生态输水对当地居民生活和生态环境产生了很大影响,塔里木河下游生态输水的社会效益显著。     

基于数字高程模型定量分析长江口深水航道工程治理效果

长江口深水航道工程于1998年开工建设,2002年和2005年一期和二期工程先后竣工,分别达到8.5和10.0 m通航水深。自2006年三期工程实施以来,北槽航道中段连续4a发生严重淤积,年疏浚维护量平均达6×107m3,影响三期工程目标的如期实现。通过自主开发的数字高程模型定量分析平台,建立时间序列的空间分布属性数据库,对长江口深水航道工程治理过程前后的河床冲淤变化规律和工程效果进行量化分析,分析结果揭示了长江口南港北槽深水航道近期淤积的泥沙来源、淤积过程、主要淤积原因和淤积部位,从而为工程治理对策提供科学依据。     

Changes in Venice Lagoon dynamics due to construction of mobile barriers

The MoSE project (construction of mobile barrier to safeguard the Lagoon of Venice) entails changes to the structure of the lagoon's inlets. This could have consequences for the areas near the inlets and for the dynamics of the lagoon ecosystem as a whole. In order to predict the effects of the proposed alterations on the hydrodynamics of the lagoon, a well-tested hydrodynamic-dispersion model was applied. Simulations were carried out considering both idealised and realistic tide and wind scenarios.     

南水北调西线工程泥石流灾害及危险区划

南水北调西线工程是拟议中的国家重大建设工程,通过"五坝七洞一渠"共计260km的引水线路,引长江上游雅砻江和大渡河水入黄河。泥石流在工程区多有分布,现已查明,工程区共有不同危险度等级的泥石流沟103条。泥石流危险区划结果表明,研究区内没有泥石流极高危险区;泥石流高度危险区总面积为73km2,主要集中分布在杜柯河流域,达曲和泥曲流域有零星分布;泥石流中度危险区总面积114·75km2,各流域均有分布,其中杜柯河和达曲流域分布较多;泥石流低度危险区是分布最广的区域,总面积156·75km2,各流域均有分布,以杜柯河流域分布略多。研究表明,用单沟泥石流危险度值作为综合指标,以具有不同泥石流危险度等级的泥石流沟流域面积作为权重的加权平均方法,采用网格作为泥石流危险区划的基本单元,能够直接而真实地获得泥石流危险区划的成果。用本文提出的方法进行地质灾害的危险区划,无疑比用间接方法和替代指标得出的危险区划结果具有更高的可靠性。     

某长江大桥深度超过15米的砂土层液化势的综合评价

不同抗震设计规范的砂土液化判别方法或国内外其他有代表性的液化判别方法所采用的地震动参数和土性指标及其埋藏条件是不同的,因而采用这些方法对同一工程场地进行液化势预测时其评价结果通常有一些差异,甚至会得到相反的结论。为了给重大工程建设提供较为合理、可信的地基液化势预测结果,采用多种液化判别方法进行场地液化势的综合评价是比较客观的,也是必要的。本文结合某长江大桥桥基工程,采用建筑抗震设计规范的砂土液化判别方法、国内外有代表性的液化判别方法、有限元数值分析法等多种方法逐一对该工程场地砂性土层进行液化判别,并结合室内动三轴液化试验结果,对主桥墩不考虑冲刷条件和考虑一般冲刷深度5m条件时的砂性土层进行了液化势的综合评价,并将各土层的液化势分为液化、可能液化和不液化3个等级,得到了较为合理可靠的判别结果。     

Estimation of seismic hazard parameters in TERESA test areas

A general overview of some of the problems involved in earthquake catalogue handling is given as part of the works carried out into the ESC/SC8-TERESA project related with the seismic hazard assessment in two selected test areas: Sannio-Matese in Italy and the northern Rhine region (BGN). Furthermore, the necessary input data to be used in the calculation of seismic hazard has been obtained, including earthquake source zones and their seismic hazard parameters.The importance is pointed out of detailed analysis of seismic catalogues, mainly in relation to the use of aftershock information, the historical records of the region, and the possible temporal and spatial variation of seismicity, which could have an important influence on short-term hazard assessment.     

Assessment of seismic hazard for the Sannio-Matese area of Southern Italy — A summary

The working group on Test Regions for Evaluation of Methods for Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe (TERESA), consisted of 15 members from 10 different European countries. Methods and experience gathered in these countries have been compared and discussed for two test areas in Europe: the Sannio-Matese region, Southern Italy, with high seismic activity, and the border region between Belgium, The Netherlands, and Federal Republic of Germany, with low activity.This paper summarizes the results for one of the test areas, Sannio-Matese. Most of the participants used statistical procedures to assess earthquake hazard, receiving results in terms of probability of occurrence for intensity as the ground-motion parameter. It was found that careful preparation of input data and parameters is the major influencing factor, therefore most of the efforts of the working group was devoted to this task.The scatter of the obtained results of the group is considerable, mainly because of the uncertainties in the data and the subjectiveness involved in the procedures. For better control of both factors, more objective methods have to be developed.     

Seismic hazard computations for regions with low earthquake activity — A case study for the Belgium,The Netherlands and NW Germany area

The algorithms to evaluate seismic hazard, used and/or developed by five teams participating in the TERESA project, applied to the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands and NW Germany are compared. The main differences in the results can be explained by the majority criterion of Egozcue et al. (1989), the differences in the upper bound and zonification and, in some cases, by a higher attenuation.     

西藏“一江两河”中部流域地区土地沙漠化防治目标,对策与治沙工程布局

西藏“一江两河”中部流域地区是我国沙漠化强烈发展的地区之一。根据“一江两河”综合开发部署和沙漠化的实际状况，制定了本区沙漠化防治的目标、对策和治沙工程布局。“八·五”、“九·五”期间治理沙漠化土地８．４６万ｈａ。治沙工程实施后，综合效益指数将比１９９０年提高３３．７％，系统功能状况与效益水平在整体上提高１／３。     

重大项目对区域经济空间的影响——以广州市钟村镇新火车客站建设为例

在区域经济发展过程中,重大项目的影响比一般的经济因素显得更为重要和关键。而对受影响的区域来说,在我国现行行政区划体制下,乡镇所受的影响更为直接。2003年,广州新火车客站(以下简称新客站)规划选址于钟村镇石壁地区,引起了国内外的极大关注。通过实证分析,发现新客站的建设将会引起当地经济空间结构的极大改变,同时也会带来一系列的社会问题。