灾害天气对若尔盖旅游安全影响的时间特征分析

利用若尔盖1971-2000年的大风、雷暴、冰雹、积雪、雾及飑的逐年各月气象资料,用现代统计方法,分别逐类、逐月、逐年代统计若尔盖地区旅游气象灾害出现频次、时间变化特征,并对其变化特征及主要旅游气象灾害发生规律进行气候综合分析,结合旅游安全社会经验,统计出若尔盖气象灾害发生月份集中在4-8月,主要是春、夏两个季节。而较少月份集中在8-2月,为秋、冬两季。若尔盖地区适宜旅游期月份为5、6、7、8、9月,非常适宜旅游区月份为6、7、8月,疗养期月份为7月。而该时段为灾害频发期,因此应特别注意对灾害天气的预防和应对。为当地旅游管理部门提供参考,为旅游投资与实施建设提供气象依据,为旅游者选择旅游季节及评估旅游安全提供帮助。     

基于ST-ConvLSTM的南海海表面CO2分压的空间和时间序列预测

海表面二氧化碳分压(pCO₂)的未来变化趋势,对统计评估全球碳收支以及理解全球气候变化背景下的海洋酸化现象至关重要。目前传统的海面pCO₂预测方法大部分基于有限的实测数据,然而实测数据存在着时间和地理方面的制约,且计算成本较高。近年来,随着时空观测数据的爆炸性增长,基于深度学习的数据驱动模型在海表面pCO₂预测方面中表现出良好的潜力。然而,由于多种环境因素与海表面pCO₂之间的关系错综复杂,到目前为止尚无十分简单有效的相关模型来对海表面pCO₂进行预测。为应对这一挑战,利用时空卷积长短时记忆神经网络(ST-ConvLSTM)模型,通过海面温度(sea surface temperature, SST)、海面盐度(sea surface salinity, SSS)、叶绿素a浓度(chl a)和海面pCO₂数据,预测南海的海面pCO₂,并将2019年1～12月的数据作为测试集对模型的表现进行了验证。结果显示, ST-ConvLSTM模型...     

基于双谱滤波的综合脉冲星时算法研究

毫秒脉冲星的自转频率非常稳定,提供了一种独立的基于遥远自然天体并能持续数百万乃至数十亿年的时间基准,具有稳定性强、运行时间长、服务范围广等特点.为了减弱毫秒脉冲星计时观测中各种高斯噪声对脉冲星时的影响,研究了一种基于双谱滤波的综合脉冲星时构建算法,处理分析了国际脉冲星计时阵(International Pul-sar Timing Array,IPTA)最新发布的4颗毫秒脉冲星(PSR J0437-4715、J0613-0200、J1713+0747和J1909-3744)的观测数据,分析了不同时间尺度综合脉冲星时的稳定性,并与构成国际原子时(International Atomic Time,TAI)的4家授时单位原子钟稳定性进行了比较.结果表明:双谱滤波算法能够较好地抑制观测噪声,提高综合脉冲星时的稳定性.相比于经典加权算法,综合脉冲星时1 yr、10 yr稳定度从7.77×10^-14、8.56×10^-16分别提高到1.50×10^-14、3.50×10^-16,单脉冲星时稳定性的提升也类似.同时发现,综合脉冲星时稳定性在5 yr及以上时间尺度上优于原子钟稳定性,可用于改善当前原子时的长期稳定性.     

Determination of residence time and mixing processes of the Ubatuba,Brazil, inner shelf waters using natural Ra isotopes

Coastal waters contain elevated dissolved activities of short-lived radium isotopes, ²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra, having half-lives of 11.4 and 3.66 days, respectively. The input of these isotopes near the coast must be balanced by decay and mixing into the open ocean, where excess activities are zero. Since the decay rate is known, in the ideal case the mixing rate may be determined from the offshore distribution of these isotopes. This study found that samples collected in June 2000 followed the expected exponential decrease with distance offshore. We assign a dispersion coefficient of 28–39 m² s⁻¹ for this study. During January 2002 and November 2003, there was not a consistent decrease of activity with distance offshore. This is likely due to the ruggedness of the coastline, where many bays and small islands interrupt simple mixing patterns. To estimate exchange rates during 2002 and 2003, we used a model based on the decrease in the ²²⁴Ra/²²³Ra activity ratio (AR) with time for samples isolated from fresh inputs of Ra. This model yielded residence times of 1–2 weeks for samples collected within 20 km of the coast. We used this residence time to calculate the flux of ²²⁸Ra (half-life = 5.7 years) to the study area necessary to maintain the enrichment relative to ocean water. This enrichment is a factor of ten greater than the flux of ²²⁸Ra expected from submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) occurring within 50 m of shore.     

MATLAB在运用系统建模处理南海气象数据过程中应用

介绍了MATLAB语言特点和系统建模方法的基本理论.根据南海气象数据的实际建模处理过程,给出了建模的详细步骤及其MATLAB实现过程以及MATLABTM的主要实现程序.试验讨论和结果表明利用MATLAB语言可以方便地对南海气象数据用系统建模方法进行建模和处理,MATLAB在运用系统建模法处理南海气象数据方面具有明显的优越性.     

季节内SST和混合层深度变化的模式研究

用Niiler—Kraus类型的混合层积分模式,对TOGA—COARE强化观测期间由《实验3号》科学考察船观测资料得到的混合层深度和SST在季节内时间尺度的变化进行了模式研究。指出:1.混合层耗散参数与较长时间尺度过程风应力的变化存在着比较好的对应关系;2.模式可以较好的对风场和热通量场在季节内时间尺度的变化作出响应,模拟出季节内时间尺度SST的变化;3.Niiler,-Kraus模式在考虑耗散作用后,可用于海洋季节内时间尺度变化的模式研究。     

北部湾三维潮流场数值研究(英文)

本文对北部湾三维潮波进行了数值研究,并将所得结果与现有观测资料作了比较。通过比较发现两者相当一致。文中还绘制了M_2和K_1分潮的同潮图,并对其作了讨论。可以断定,北部湾的日潮优势是由日潮共振所引起的。M_2和K_1分潮流的水平分布表明,强流区位于它们各自的蜕化无潮点附近。还讨论了分潮流的铅直结构,可以看出这种结构十分接近实际分潮流场的特征。     

Coma Morphology of Three Non-periodic Comets

The coma morphology and short-term evolution was investigated of three non-periodic comets in retrograde orbits, C/2001 Q4 (NEAT), C/2002 T7 (LINEAR), and C/2003 K4 (LINEAR). All three comets display distinct coma features, which were very different from one comet to the next and remained rather constant in shape during the observational period. A single, broad feature perpendicular to the sun-tail direction dominated the coma of C/2003 K4 in all used filters (B,V,R,I), whereas the coma of Comet C/2002 T7 exhibited different features in blue and red filters. C/2001 Q4 showed rather complex coma morphology with clear short-term variability in coma brightness. Therefore, these non-periodic comets neither show a featureless coma nor any similarities of the features detected. The overall distribution of coma material was investigated from the shape of radial coma profiles averaged around the comet nucleus. For C/2001 Q4 and C/2002 T7, the slopes fitted to the linear part of these profiles are flatter in the blue than in the red, which can be explained by the presence of coma gas. For C/2003 K4 no such difference is indicated in the May observations (r = 2.3 AU), while in July (r = 1.7 AU) the profiles in the B-filter are flatter than in V, R, and I, hence gas contamination was relevant at least in the B filter. The R and I filter images were used to determine approximate Afρ values of each comet as a function of time.     

速度误差对时间偏移和深度偏移的影响分析

地震数值计算表明:地震速度模型出现误差,对时间偏移和深度偏移有不同的影响,且深度偏移结果的误差往往大于时间偏移的误差,影响了深度偏移方法的广泛应用。根本原因在于时间偏移使用的是均方根速度,而深度偏移使用的是层速度,因此在速度模型相同的情况下,层速度的变化远大于均方根速度的变化。地震数值模拟分析同时说明,深度偏移结果的误差还取决于地下介质的结构和岩性。当界面二边速度差异比较大时,速度摄动值δ引起深度偏移结果的误差,远大于界面二边速度平缓变化的情况。深度成像的误差等于速度摄动值δ和界面二边速度对比度vi+1/vi的乘积。     

Does time dilation tell us the distance to gamma-ray bursts?

Since the discovery that dim gamma-ray bursts last longer on average than bright ones (time dilation) the cosmological origin of this effect has been contested by various researchers. I discuss the current status of this issue and conclude that current models for a non-cosmological time dilation only explain part of the observed phenomenon, and even then betray themselves by distinct signatures in the data. As those signatures have not been seen, the cosmological origin remains the favoured explanation of the time dilation.