青岛市大气污染时间序列分析预报方法研究

根据青岛市大气污染监测资料 ,采用时间序列分析方法 ,建立多种预报模型 ,有原序列周期外延法、均生函数周期外延法、均生函数逐步回归法以及自回归预报法等 ,最后提出一种综合预报模型。连续预报试验表明 ,综合预报模型优于任何个别预报模型 ,有较好的预报能力。利用马尔可夫概型对污染状态 (轻、中、重 )进行了分级预报试验 ,也获得良好的效果。     

Comparisons between the influences of habitat, body size and season on the dietary composition of the sparid Acanthopagrus latus in a large marine embayment

Seasonal samples from Shark Bay on the west coast of Australia were used to determine (1) the habitats occupied by the juveniles and adults of Acanthopagrus latus in this large subtropical marine embayment and (2) the extent to which the dietary composition of this sparid is influenced by habitat type, body length and season. Sampling was undertaken in two habitat types in which A. latus was known to be abundant, namely mangrove (Avicennia marina) creeks and nearby rocky areas, the latter comprising sandstone boulders and/or limestone reefs. The mean total length ±95% CLs of A. latus was far lower in mangrove creeks, 126 ± 6.1 mm, than in rocky areas, 313 ± 4.7 mm. As A. latus attains maturity at ca. 245 mm, the juveniles of this species typically occupy mangrove areas and then, with increasing body size, move to nearshore rocky areas, where they become adults. The species composition of the food ingested by juvenile A. latus in mangrove creeks differed markedly from that of large juveniles and adults in rocky areas. Based on analyses of data for both habitat types combined, this difference was far greater than that between size classes and season, which was negligible. There were indications, however, that, overall within each habitat, the dietary composition did change seasonally, although not with body size. Acanthopagrus latus fed predominantly on mangrove material, sesarmid crabs and small gastropods in mangrove habitats, and mainly on Brachidontes ustulatus in rocky areas, where this mytilid bivalve is very abundant. The mangrove material, which contributed nearly 40% of its overall dietary volume in mangrove creeks, consisted mainly of lateral root primordia. This apparently unique food source for a teleost is presumably ingested through subsurface nipping, which would be facilitated by the mouth and dentitional characteristics of sparids. The almost total lack of correspondence in the dietary compositions of fish in the length class that was well represented in both mangrove and rocky areas illustrates the extent to which this sparid is capable of opportunistic feeding behaviour.     

Effects of tributyltin at environmental levels on monooxygenase system of digestive gland in hard clam Meretrix meretrix

The effects on ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase （EROD）, NADPH-cytochrome c reductase and NADH cytochrorne b5 reductase activities of digestive gland in Meretrix meretrix exposed to tributyltin （TBT） at environmental levels （0.1,1.0,10.0 ng/dm as stannum concentration）,in experimental condition, were evaluated. The EROD, NADH cytochrorne b5 reductase activities were significantly inhibited after exposure to 10.0 ng/dm^3 TBT for 8 and 20 d, the NADPH cytochrorne c reductase activities were significantly inhibited after exposure to 0.1,1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm TBT for 8 d and to 1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm for 20 d, as compared with the matched control, while NADH cytochrorne b5 reductases and NADPH cytochrome c reductase activities were induced after exposure to 10.0 ng/dm^3 TBT for 2 d. The EROD activity in the 10 ng/dm^3 group,and the NADH cytochrome b5 reductases activities in 1.0 and 10.0 ng/dm groups, were significantly induced when transferred to clean recovery tanks for 7 d. The three enzymic activities in the clams exposed to TBT were recovered to the level corresponding to that of the control group after transfer to clean recovery tanks for 20 d. NADPH cytochrome c reductase activity in Meretrix meretrix seems to be more sensitive to exposure of TBT than that of the EROD and NADH cytochrome b5 reductases. The results suggest that induction and inhibition by TBT to the monooxygenase system enzymic activity in Meretrix meretrix would simultaneously exist. The enzymic activities were inhibited by exposure for a long time. The results suggest that inhibition of the monooxygenase system should be an indication of the exposure to environmentally relevant concentrations of TBT for a long time.     

Roles of Continental Shelves and Marginal Seas in the Biogeochemical Cycles of the North Pacific Ocean

Most marginal seas in the North Pacific are fed by nutrients supported mainly by upwelling and many are undersaturated with respect to atmospheric CO₂ in the surface water mainly as a result of the biological pump and winter cooling. These seas absorb CO₂ at an average rate of 1.1 ± 0.3 mol C m⁻²yr⁻¹ but release N₂/N₂O at an average rate of 0.07 ± 0.03 mol N m⁻²yr⁻¹. Most of primary production, however, is regenerated on the shelves, and only less than 15% is transported to the open oceans as dissolved and particulate organic carbon (POC) with a small amount of POC deposited in the sediments. It is estimated that seawater in the marginal seas in the North Pacific alone may have taken up 1.6 ± 0.3 Gt (10¹⁵ g) of excess carbon, including 0.21 ± 0.05 Gt for the Bering Sea, 0.18 ± 0.08 Gt for the Okhotsk Sea; 0.31 ± 0.05 Gt for the Japan/East Sea; 0.07 ± 0.02 Gt for the East China and Yellow Seas; 0.80 ± 0.15 Gt for the South China Sea; and 0.015 ± 0.005 Gt for the Gulf of California. More importantly, high latitude marginal seas such as the Bering and Okhotsk Seas may act as conveyer belts in exporting 0.1 ± 0.08 Gt C anthropogenic, excess CO₂ into the North Pacific Intermediate Water per year. The upward migration of calcite and aragonite saturation horizons due to the penetration of excess CO₂ may also make the shelf deposits on the Bering and Okhotsk Seas more susceptible to dissolution, which would then neutralize excess CO₂ in the near future. Further, because most nutrients come from upwelling, increased water consumption on land and damming of major rivers may reduce freshwater output and the buoyancy effect on the shelves. As a result, upwelling, nutrient input and biological productivity may all be reduced in the future. As a final note, the Japan/East Sea has started to show responses to global warming. Warmer surface layer has reduced upwelling of nutrient-rich subsurface water, resulting in a decline of spring phytoplankton biomass. Less bottom water formation because of less winter cooling may lead to the disappearance of the bottom water as early as 2040. Or else, an anoxic condition may form as early as 2200 AD. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Sediment–water interactions of natural oestrogens under estuarine conditions

The natural human female hormones oestrone and 17β-oestradiol have been implicated in the disruption of endocrine systems in some wildlife adjacent to sewage effluents. The sorption behaviour of these two compounds under estuarine conditions was studied by spiking either 2.55 μg of oestrone or 2.65 μg of 17β-oestradiol in kinetic experiments. In equilibrium experiments, 3 ng of oestrone or 3.2 ng of 17β-oestradiol was added in each of the centrifuge tubes. Sorption onto sediment particles was relatively slow, with sorption equilibrium being reached in about 70 and 170 h for oestrone and 17β-oestradiol, respectively. The effects of a variety of environmental parameters on sorption were studied including salinity, sediment concentration (SC), the presence of a third phase, particle size and, also, surfactant concentrations. Results show that although salinity did not induce any statistically significant effect on the sorption of 17β-oestradiol, it did statistically enhance the sorption of oestrone, and a salting constant of 0.3 l mol⁻¹ was derived. The partition coefficient for both compounds decreased with increasing sediment concentration, a phenomenon that has been widely reported and attributed to the presence of colloids (which could enhance dissolved concentrations). In this paper, the true partition coefficients for sediment particles (K_p^true) and colloidal particles (K_c^true) have been calculated, and a K_p^true value of 141 and 102 ml g⁻¹ was obtained for oestrone and 17β-oestradiol, respectively. In addition, K_c^true values for oestrone (222×10² ml g⁻¹) and 17β-oestradiol (135×10² ml g⁻¹) were two orders of magnitude higher than their respective K_p^true values, suggesting that the colloidal particles are significantly stronger sorbents for natural oestrogens than sediment particles. Particles of different sizes were found to have different partition coefficients due to the strong relationships between partition coefficients for the two compounds and particulate organic carbon (POC) contents and specific surface areas (SSAs). The presence of a surfactant was shown to reduce the partition coefficients for the two compounds, although its concentrations being used were higher than those normally found in the natural environment.     

一种基于BP算法学习的小波神经网络

为发展 Szu的基于信号表示的小波神经网络 ,提出一种多输入多输出的小波网络模型 ,网络隐层采用框架小波函数、输出层采用 Sigmoid激励函数 ,并选用“熵误差函数”以加速网络的学习速度。奇偶判别和混沌时间序列预测例子的实验结果表明了它具有良好的函数逼近能力和推广能力 ,收敛速度和均方误差均优于相同结构的多层感知器模型。     

Comparison between zooplankton data collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey in the English Channel and by WP-2 nets at station L4, Plymouth (UK)

Zooplankton sampling has been carried out by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey since the 1930s enabling the study of long-term changes in plankton populations, the elucidation of seasonal patterns of abundance, and more recently providing zooplankton biomass estimates for ecosystem models. Data for zooplankton abundance collected by CPR tows in the Western English Channel (between 1988 and 1998) were compared to vertically integrated samples collected from station L4 off Plymouth, UK. Comparisons were made for locally abundant copepods (including Acartia, Calanus, Para/Pseudocalanus, Centropages, Oithona and Temora) collected by CPR and WP-2 nets. All dominant species recorded at L4 were also common to the CPR data. However, the position of the taxa in the two datasets was not equivalent. Seasonal cycles revealed by CPR data were significantly similar to those recorded throughout the water column at L4 for most taxa. However, absolute levels of abundance differed for the two datasets: abundances were underestimated by CPR samples when compared to those of vertically integrated samples by a factor of between 2 and 35, with the exception of Centropages. The differing mesh sizes (200 and 270 μm) of the WP-2 net and CPR mesh could only partially explain these differences in abundance, implying that the behaviour of individual taxa and their depth in the water column also influenced the abundance recorded.     

崂山花岗岩地区含锶、偏硅酸矿泉水的形成机理

报道了崂山花岗岩地区矿泉水的特征。指出其矿泉类型为含锶、偏硅酸型，并讨论了其形成机理。     

Fe(OH)_3胶体与铜离子作用的研究

使用切向流超滤系统得到粒度较均匀的Fe(OH)3胶体,进而对Fe(OH)3胶体粒子与Cu2 的作用进行了研究,并将实验结果与南沙群岛海区表层水中铜与胶体物质结合状况的调查数据进行了比较分析,得到如下结果:(1)在海水介质中,铜在Fe(OH)3胶体上结合的百分率(pH>5)随pH的升高而下降,随着Fe(OH)3胶体浓度的减小而下降?(2)在天然海水介质中,使铜在Fe(OH)3胶体上结合的百分率在50%-70%的有机物浓度为1.0mg·L-1,有机物浓度的增大使铜与无机胶体结合的百分率有下降的趋势?     

琼州海峡铁路轮渡新海湾港区泥沙淤积问题

海南省拟建琼州海峡铁路轮渡。本文通过对海峡南岸新海湾轮渡港址附近自然条件、岸滩演变和输沙特征的分析研究，对不同类型港区布置方案港内开挖区和航道的淤积强度、淤积量等进行了计算，并对不同防护建筑物的有效拦沙时间等进行了探讨和计算，提出了港区类型推荐方案。