Decision-support systems for groundwater protection: innovative tools for resource management

Governmental authorities are forced by law to make decisions within the framework of European, national and regional directives in the fields of spatial planning, groundwater and environmental protection. These tasks can be supported by a decision-support system, which integrates data from various sources and helps to make decision processes more effective and transparent. Basic work for such a decision support system has been done in a transnational and interdisciplinary project (Interreg II C: KATER), including metadata definition, metadata system, cartographic tools and GIS tools. The direct integration of these tools and information in the decision process will be implemented in the next few years (project KATER II).     

The influence of dam and lakes on the Yangtze River streamflow: long‐range correlation and complexity analyses

Employing long‐range correlation, complexity features and clustering, this study investigated the influence of dam and lake‐river systems on the Yangtze River flow. The impact of the Gezhouba Dam and the lake systems on streamflow was evaluated by analysing daily streamflow records at the Cuntan, the Yichang and the Datong station. Results indicated no evident influence of the Gezhouba Dam on streamflow changes. Distinct differences in scaling behaviour, long‐range correlation and clustering of streamflow at the Datong station when compared with those at the Cuntan and Yichang stations undoubtedly showed the influence of water storage and the buffering effect of the lake systems between the Datong station and other two hydrological stations on streamflow in the lower Yangtze River basin. Decreased regularity, enhanced long‐range correlation and increased clustering of streamflow in the lower Yangtze River basin due to the effect of water storage of the lake systems were corroborated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonlinear earthquake analysis of high arch dam–water–foundation rock systems

A nonlinear finite element model for earthquake response analysis of arch dam–water–foundation rock systems is proposed in this paper. The model includes dynamic dam–water and dam–foundation rock interactions, the opening of contraction joints, the radiation damping of semi‐unbounded foundation rock, the compressibility of impounded water, and the upstream energy propagating along the semi‐unbounded reservoir. Meanwhile, a new equivalent force scheme is suggested to achieve free‐field input in the model. The effects of the earthquake input mechanism, joint opening, water compressibility, and radiation damping on the earthquake response of the Ertan arch dam (240 m high) in China are investigated using the proposed model. The results show that these factors significantly affect the earthquake response of the Ertan arch dam. Such factors should therefore be considered in the earthquake response analysis and earthquake safety evaluation of high arch dams. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长白山及邻区地壳、上地幔顶部三维速度结构

根据沿长白山布设的宽频带流动地震台站及吉林省地震台网所记录的近震P波走时数据,利用层析成像方法对长白山及邻区（39°N-45°N、122°E-130°E）深至40 km的地壳和上地幔顶部三维速度结构进行了研究。结果表明：地震的发生和分布多集中于断裂等复杂地质构造。利用较高分辨率的地壳、上地幔顶部三维速度结构证实了长白山火山区岩浆囊存在,并推测岩浆囊的位置位于火山口的西南方向,深度为10~40 km。壳内岩浆囊分布对进一步解释、认识火山灾害提供了重要的深部信息。     

一个半线性耦合抛物型方程组爆破解的速率估计

考虑一个方程和非线性边界条件耦合的半线性抛物型方程组,运用Scaling方法、Green函数、Schauder估计等方法,研究该方程组解的爆破速率,并给出非线性反应项和吸收项对爆破速率的影响。     

气象预警信息一键式发布系统研究与应用

基于WebGIS、HTTP通信、数据库等技术,制定了一键式预警信息发布规范,有效整合了电子显示屏、预警大喇叭、手机等预警发布终端,开发了气象预警信息一键式发布平台,实现了地图综合显示、气象数据叠加、任意预警区域选取、一键式发布预警信息等功能,提高了预警信息发布的可视化水平,保证了多终端预警信息发布的高效性、一致性。该系统的一键式信息发布技术,为气象预警发布开拓了新思路,能够有效提升业务水平和预警发布能力。     

基于GIS的矿产预测地质解译空间信息集成

利用我国海量地质标准基础数据库中的数字地质图和矿产图,通过基于GIS的地质解译空间集成地质信息,将其用于综合信息矿产预测。以地质解译系统对内蒙大兴安岭南段1∶20万成矿预测的应用为案例,阐述地质信息的空间提取与集成过程：首先在建立地质字典库实现地质空间信息共享的基础上,通过矿化密集区对地质模型的分类图层进行空间分析,建立地质成矿空间信息库和图库;然后,基于典型矿床圈定模型单元,通过模型单元与地质成矿空间信息库和图库的空间分析,建立地质找矿模型;最后,基于地质单元对地质成矿空间信息库和图库的二次空间集成,完成预测模型的地质空间信息提取与集成。将本方法应用在银矿案例的综合信息矿产预测靶区评价上,得到可供进一步查证的新增靶区比已知靶区增加了近5倍。     

利用奇异谱分析提高极移中长期预报精度

由于空间大地观测数据传输耗时及处理过程复杂, 导致极移测量值的获取存在时延, 无法满足对高精度的极移预报值有重大需求的应用领域. 针对极移复杂的时变特性, 提出一种基于奇异谱分析(singular spectrum analysis, SSA)的预报方法. 首先用SSA分离提取极移时序中的高频组分与低频组分; 其次建立最小二乘(least square, LS)外推与自回归(AutoreGressive, AR)模型对极移高频和低频组分进行组合预报. 结果表明, SSA方法能够准确地分离和提取极移低频和高频组分, 对低频和高频组分组合预报可以显著改善极移的中长期(30--365d)预报精度, 与国际地球自转和参考系服务局(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的A公报中的极移预报值相比, SSA方法对极移PMX分量(本初子午线方向)和PMY分量(西90$^\circ$子午线方向)的中长期预报精度改进最高分别可达45.97%和62.44%. 研究结果验证了SSA方法对极移中长期预报改进的有效性.     

基于情境感知和序列模式挖掘的气象学习资源推荐算法

随着互联网的快速发展,气象部门职工作为学习者可以获得的学习资源得到极大丰富。信息超载导致检索合适的在线学习资源时遇到了困难;学习者在不同学习环境和序列访问模式上也有不同的学习需求。但是,现有的推荐系统,如基于内容的推荐和协同过滤,没有结合学习者的情境和序列访问模式,推荐结果准确度不高。本文提出了一种结合情境感知、序列模式挖掘和协同过滤算法的混合推荐算法来为学习者推荐学习资源。混合推荐算法中,情境感知被用来整合学习者的情境信息,如知识水平和学习目标;序列模式挖掘被用来对网络日志进行挖掘,发现学习者的序列访问模式;协同过滤被用来根据学习者的情境数据和序列访问模式为目标学习者计算预测并生成建议。实验和应用效果表明,该混合推荐算法推荐的质量和准确性方面优于其他推荐算法。     

2006年6月10日浙江飑线FY-2C卫星云图特征

利用国际卫星云气候计划（International Satellite Cloud Climate Program,简称ISCCP）提供的1998—2007年共10 a的深对流路径跟踪资料,统计分析了影响江淮地区对流系统（Convection system,简称CS）的时空分布及其参数特征。结果表明：影响江淮地区的CS主要集中在春夏两季,大多生成于江淮本地及我国中西部地区,呈现以江淮地区为中心的带状分布特征,越靠近江淮区域CS分布越为密集。依据源地不同,将影响江淮地区的CS分为5类,受气候条件与地形地貌的共同作用,各源地CS参数特征差异显著,总体来说CS的水平尺度越大,其生命史、对流云团(Convective clusters,简称CC)数目及水平云温度梯度也越大。其中江淮中心区域（MID）区域CS水平尺度、生命史和CC数目的平均值均为最小;东南（SE）区域CS生命周期以中长周期为主,水平尺度、最大对流比和云温度梯度的平均值最大。梅雨期内江淮地区对流活动频繁,CS的水平尺度大、生命史长、CC数目多。