Climatically relevant periodicities in the thickness of biogenic carbonate varves in Spooensee, Switzerland (9740-6870 calendar yr BP)

Accurate determination of the thicknesses of 2717 biogenic carbonate varves from a Swiss lake (Soppensee), spanning the period from about 9740 to 6870 calendar yr BP, allowed the computation of a power spectrum using classical FFT methods. The presence of pronounced peaks at 40-50 and 20-25 yr agrees with the results of other studies on varve thickness and D¹⁴C which have been interpreted as indicating an association between solar forcing and varve thickness. The presence in the Soppensee varve series of an additional peak at 10.9 yr, corresponding to the Schwabe sunspot cycle, lends further support to this hypothesis. Because the Soppensee varves are of biogenic rather than clastic origin, any influence fluctuations in solar irradiance may have had on sedimentation rates is likely to have been exerted via primary production.     

Modern diatom, cladocera, chironomid, and chrysophyte cyst assemblages as quantitative indicators for the reconstruction of past environmental conditions in the Alps. II. Nutrients

Surface sediments from 68 small lakes in the Alps and 9 well-dated sediment core samples that cover a gradient of total phosphorus (TP) concentrations of 6 to 520 g TP l^-1 were studied for diatom, chrysophyte cyst, cladocera, and chironomid assemblages. Inference models for mean circulation log₁₀ TP were developed for diatoms, chironomids, and benthic cladocera using weighted-averaging partial least squares. After screening for outliers, the final transfer functions have coefficients of determination (r², as assessed by cross-validation, of 0.79 (diatoms), 0.68 (chironomids), and 0.49 (benthic cladocera). Planktonic cladocera and chrysophytes show very weak relationships to TP and no TP inference models were developed for these biota. Diatoms showed the best relationship with TP, whereas the other biota all have large secondary gradients, suggesting that variables other than TP have a strong influence on their composition and abundance. Comparison with other diatom – TP inference models shows that our model has high predictive power and a low root mean squared error of prediction, as assessed by cross-validation.     

Vulnerability assessment in karstic areas: validation by field experiments

Several methods have been developed for vulnerability mapping in karstic areas. These methods need additional validation by field experiments. Several tests have been carried out in the Swiss Jura with natural and artificial tracers. The protective role of some intrinsic properties of the system, such as glacial deposits covering karst, epikarst storage and system dilution effect, have been clearly demonstrated. Use of three tracers in parallel showed the reactivity of the epikarst: all tracers arrived at the same time, but their relative concentration stayed clearly different. A classification of contamination scenarios into four classes is proposed. It is shown that the relevance of some intrinsic properties depends on the considered scenario class. The hydrodynamic state of the aquifer influences greatly flow velocities and can strongly modify contaminant concentrations at the output of the system. The spatial repartition (point vs diffuse) and the quantity of contaminant entering the system will also influence the output response. Hence, results from tracing experiments cannot be used straightforward for obtaining a representative value of flow velocity, dispersion or recovery rate.     

Defining deep decarbonization pathways for Switzerland: an economic evaluation

This article simulates deep decarbonization pathways for a small open economy that lacks the usual avenues for large CO₂ reductions – heavy industry and power generation. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the energy and economic impacts of the transition to only one ton of CO₂ emissions per capita in 2050. This represents a 76% reduction with respect to 1990 levels, while the population is expected to be 46% larger and GPD to increase by 90%. The article discusses several options and scenarios that are compatible with this emissions target and compares them with a reference scenario that extrapolates already-decided climate and energy policy instruments. We show that the ambitious target is attainable at moderate welfare costs, even if it needs very high carbon prices, and that these costs are lower when either CO₂ can be captured and sequestered or electricity consumption can be taxed sufficiently to stabilize it.

Policy relevance

In the context of COP 21, all countries must propose intended contributions that involve deep decarbonization of their economy over the next decades. This article defines and analyses such pathways for Switzerland, taking into consideration the existing energy demand and supply and also already-defined climate policies. It draws several scenarios that are compatible with a target of 1 ton of CO₂ emissions per capita in 2050. This objective is very challenging, especially with the nuclear phase out decided after the disaster in Fukushima and the political decision to balance electricity trade. Nevertheless, it is possible to design several feasible pathways that are based on different options. The economic cost is significant but affordable for the Swiss economy. The insights are relevant not only for Switzerland, but also for other industrialized countries when defining their INDCs.     

Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)

The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.     

Something old,something new,something red,something blue*

Abstract

Hydrologists responsible for flood management need real-time data in order to manage imminent or ongoing floods. In this paper, innovative methods for accessing hydrological data and their spatial visualization are introduced. A multitude of relevant real-time, forecast and historical information is provided in a single, self-updating hydrological map information system. The system consists of a central database and a cartographic user interface and provides harmonized and filtered data in the form of interactive, customizable maps. Maps may also be cross-referenced with historical maps or may be animated for improved comprehension and decision making. Emphasis is placed on the development of the hydrological real-time database that manages large amounts of spatial, temporal and attributive data. The paper focuses on the cartographic user interface, its functionality and the resulting interactive hydrological maps.

Citation Lienert, C., Weingartner, R. &; Hurni, L. (2011) An interactive, web-based, real-time hydrological map information system. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(1), 1–16     

Late-glacial climatic oscillations as recorded in Swiss lake sediments

Regional pollen assemblage zones for the late-glacial period of the Swiss Plateau are introduced and defined. They include four major zones (Artemisia, Juniperus—Hippophaë, Betula, Pinus PAZ) with several subzones. Pollen and oxygen-isotope analyses on lacustrine sediments from several lakes in the area reveal four distinct phases of climatic oscillation in the time period of 13 000-9500 yr BP. The first oscillation, termed the Aegelsee fluctuation, occurs shortly before 12 000 yr BP and varve counts suggest its duration was ca. 100 yr. It is characterised by a short decrease in the oxygen isotopes as well as a short increase in NAP associated with a depression in birch pollen values. The second oscillation, which occurs in the δ¹⁸O record shortly before the deposition of the Laacher See Tephra (ca. 11 000 yr BP), is termed the Gerzensee fluctuation. It occurs during a pine-dominated phase and its vegetational effects cannot be determined palynologically. The most prominent regressive phase is the Younger Dryas biozone (ca. 10 700-10 000 yr BP) characterised by an increase in heliophilous NAP and low δ¹⁸O values. The Younger Dryas biozone can often be subdivided palynologically into two parts: a first part rich in grasses and juniper and a second part with higher Filipendula and birch values. During the Preboreal biozone another distinct oscillation is evidenced only in the oxygen isotope ratios. Comparison of the Swiss oxygen isotope profiles with the Greenland Dye 3 record suggests that not only the three major shifts in the δ¹⁸O curves but also the minor ones are closely comparable, suggesting some common climatic control.     

Comparing historical and contemporary maps - a methodological framework for a cartographic map comparison applied to Swiss maps

Topographic maps are powerful tools for the purpose of identifying land use and cover change (LUCC) as they are among the most reliable representations of past landscapes for the time prior to the existence of aerial photography. In light of the increased availability of historical maps, we argue that there is a need for a standardized process to assess map comparability in a systematic way in order to avoid, or at least minimize, the detection of spurious landscape changes due to incompatible map series. A full understanding of map quality, background and error distributions is fundamental to attain reliable LUCC results. The conceptual framework presented in this study considers the context, distortion and cartographic generalization of topographic maps. Furthermore, it includes an approach to homogenize the level of generalization of landscape elements (e.g. forests) from maps with different scales. To demonstrate its application, we assessed the comparability of seven topographic maps from Canton Zurich covering a time span of 336 years (1664–2000). Overall, for the maps of Canton Zurich, a wall-to-wall comparison of forest cover based on the topographic maps presented here can be problematic for the oldest map from 1664. Based on the results, a wall-to-wall comparison with the later maps is not recommended, due to its substantial distortion. Yet, after re-generalization of natural landscape elements, such as forests, a comparison based on landscape indices is possible, even for the oldest map. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that maps from the mid-19^th century onward possess an acceptable level of accuracy. This framework can be applied to a wide range of maps at regional, national, or global levels, providing the opportunity to look at land cover history over multiple centuries.