新疆三工河绿洲土地利用变化系统动力学仿真

从小区域(乡域)尺度出发,综合考虑人口、经济、技术、市场等主要人文因素对绿洲土地利用变化的驱动作用,建立系统动力学（SD）模型,并以天山北麓三工河流域为例,用1978—1998年的实际数据验证了模型的适用性和可靠性,在此基础上,模拟和分析了三种发展模式下本区域1998—2050年土地利用变化过程,结果表明：SD方法对于乡域尺度的土地利用变化研究是适宜的;三种模式下土地利用变化规律表现出明显的差异性,人口、经济、技术、市场等因素对本区域土地利用变化具有显著驱动作用。     

Multi-offset phase analysis of surface wave data (MOPA)

Inaccuracy in the shear wave velocity profile inverted from surface wave data manifests from both modelling error and data uncertainty. An alternative method for dispersion curve evaluation by weighted linear regression of phase-offset data can be applied to both equispaced and non-equispaced data for objective identification of these often overlooked error sources.From field data, near-field effects are noted to at most half a wavelength and lateral discontinuities identified by marked changes in wavenumber with offset. Transition frequencies to dominant higher modes appear lower than when identified from standard plane-wave transform methods. Effects can be discriminated by their frequency, position or offset dependence.When a non-corrupt dispersion curve is extracted, the errors are up to 5% at low frequency. Through theoretical Gaussian error propagation analysis, the resulting shear wave velocity profile shows up to 18% uncertainty at depth.     

Modelling of the passive turning of a turret moored vessel in conditions of compact ice

The concept of the offshore oil and gas field development using floating ship-shaped platforms, frequently named floating production units (FPU further), with turret mooring is widely used in the world, including regions with harsh environment. The direct transfer of this concept to the Arctic seas is not possible, mostly due to the difficulties of maintaining a weathervaning, or passive turning regime in heavy ice conditions. The main danger relates to the fact that the expected FPU rotation under the action of high ice loads can be accompanied by a translational displacement of the FPU away from the mooring point. As a result, the mooring system may reach an overloaded state until the FPU turns to a favourable position relative to the ice drift direction. In the paper, we are focused on the investigation of a mathematical model of the passive FPU turning on a spot under the assumption that the ice cover is described by a rigid-plastic continuum. The study is performed both analytically and by numerical simulations. A number of specific FPU motion patterns are analytically derived from the model in quasi-static approximation in the form of successive limit states of the system FPU – ice continuum. Some results of the corresponding numerical simulation are presented that confirm the existence of similar solutions in the full dynamic setting of the problem. A partial parametric analysis of the problem is also performed.     

Particle transport and distribution on the Mars Science Laboratory mission: Effects of triboelectric charging

We report on the nature of fine particle (<150 μm) transport under simulated martian conditions, in order to better understand the Mars Science Laboratory’s (MSL) sample acquisition, processing and handling subsystem (SA/SPaH). We find that triboelectric charging due to particle movement may have to be controlled in order for successful transport of fines that are created within the drill, processed through the Collection and Handling for In situ Martian Rock Analysis (CHIMRA) sample handing system, and delivered to the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) and Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) instruments. These fines will be transferred from the surface material to the portioner, a 3 mm diameter, 8 mm deep distribution center where they will drop ∼2 cm to the instrument inlet funnels. In our experiments, movement of different material including terrestrial analogs and martian soil simulants (Mars Mojave Simulant - MMS) resulted in 1-7 nanocoulombs of charge to build up for several different experimental configurations. When this charging phenomenon occurs, several different results are observed including particle clumping, adherence of material on conductive surfaces, or electrostatic repulsion, which causes like-charged particles to move away from each other. This electrostatic repulsion can sort samples based upon differing size fractions, while adhesion causes particles of different sizes to bind into clods. Identifying these electrostatic effects can help us understand potential bias in the analytical instruments and to define the best operational protocols to collect samples on the surface of Mars.     

断层旋性与地震危险性

文中以“平行同旋走滑断层减震”的观点论证了兰州、北京、昆明这些位于强震活动区的大城市今后百年内不会发生 6 .5级以上地震。以“平行异旋走滑断层加震”的观点解释了西南棱形块体北边界和南边界在发生大震方面相互促进的现象。对于由构造分段求震级来说 ,在遇到不同的横交断层作为分段点时 ,还需考虑将来发震时始破裂点的位置以及发震断层的旋性 ,不然就会造成对震级估计不足 ,继而成为抗震建设的潜在不安全因素。在主震后为了预报余震的强度 ,可应用物理学中的科里奥利力理论 ,应用时必须知道断层类型和旋性。对于走滑断层来说 ,左旋余震弱 ,右旋余震强。例如 1997年藏北玛尼 7.5级地震 ,余震仅为 5 .3级 ,震级偏小 ,因主震为左旋的缘故 ;1976年唐山 7.8级地震 ,余震可达 7.1级 ,因主震是右旋。对于逆断层来说 ,上盘错动方向在当地子午面左侧者余震强度大 ,在右侧者余震强度弱。据此讨论了 1999年台湾南投 7.6级大震余震强度达 7.1级是因为主震为逆断层 ,上盘向西错动。     

垃圾填埋场衬垫系统穿刺性能评价

垃圾中含有铁、玻璃和陶瓷等尖锐物,在荷载作用下极有可能使衬垫系统发生破坏,导致渗滤液流入地下污染周边环境,如何正确评价衬垫系统的穿刺性能很重要。考虑材料的抗拉强度、厚度以及穿刺棒的直径提出了衬垫系统穿刺力的评价公式,并与试验结果进行了比较。结果表明,单层土工膜的抗穿刺力试验结果与评价值比较吻合,但由土工膜与无纺布组成的衬垫系统抗穿刺力的试验值与评价结果有一定偏差;土工膜与无纺布一起使用能大幅度提高衬垫系统的抗穿刺能力,因此土工膜上应铺设无纺布有利于保护衬垫系统;土工膜的抗拉强度越大,抗穿刺能力越强;基础的存在能在一定程度上提高衬垫系统的抗穿刺性能。所得结果对垃圾填埋场衬垫系统的设计具有一定的指导意义     

Preservation potential of implanted solar wind volatiles in lunar paleoregolith deposits buried by lava flows

The lunar surface is bathed in a variety of impacting particles originating from the solar wind, solar flares, and galactic cosmic rays. These particles can become embedded in the regolith and/or produce a range of other molecules as they pass through the target material. The Moon therefore contains a record of the variability of the solar and galactic particle fluxes through time. To obtain useful temporal snapshots of these processes, discrete regolith units must be shielded from continued bombardment that would rewrite the record over time. One mechanism for achieving this preservation is the burial of a regolith deposit by a later lava flow. The archival value of such deposits sandwiched between lava layers is enhanced by the fact that both the under- and over-lying lava can be dated by radiometric techniques, thereby precisely defining the age of the regolith layer and the geologic record contained therein. The implanted volatile species would be vulnerable to outgassing by the heat of the over-lying flow, at temperatures exceeding 300-700 °C. However, the insulating properties of the finely particulate regolith would restrict significant heating to shallow depths. We have therefore modeled the heat transfer between lunar mare basalt lavas and the regolith in order to establish the range of depths below which implanted volatiles would be preserved. We find that the full suite of solar wind volatiles, consisting predominantly of H and He, would survive at depths of ∼13-290 cm (for 1-10 m thick lava flows, respectively). A substantial amount of CO, CO₂, N₂ and Xe would be preserved at depths as shallow as 3.7 cm beneath meter-thick flows. Given typical regolith accumulation rates during mare volcanism, the optimal localities for collecting viable solar wind samples would involve stacks of thin mare lava flows emplaced a few tens to a few hundred Ma apart, in order for sufficient regolith to develop between burial events. Obtaining useful archives of Solar System processes would therefore require extraction of regolith deposits buried at quite shallow depths beneath radiometrically-dated mare lava flows. These results provide a basis for possible lunar exploration activities.     

Distribution and source of heavy metals in the surface sediments from the near-shore area,north Jiangsu Province,China

Samples of surface sediment and vibrocore were collected in the near-shore area of north Jiangsu Province for grain size, elements, ²¹⁰Pb_excess and ¹³⁷Cs analyses. In our study area, the diversity of metal concentration was controlled not by the grain size, but by the source. The element content of the old Yellow River Delta was used as baseline for our study area. Geoaccumulation indexes indicate that no station was polluted by Cu, Pb, Zn and As, but the I_geo values of As were close to zero in some stations. Slight pollution caused by Cd was observed in some stations. Correlation and enrichment factors suggest that Cu, Pb and Zn are lithogenic in origin, while As and Cd are mixed in origin. Especially, in some polluted stations Cd was obviously anthropogenic in origin.     

关于用科氏力预测最大余震问题的讨论

对用科里奥利力效应预测余震最大强度的某些问题进行了讨论.并介绍了用该效应对2008年汶川8级地震的最大余震所作的正确预测.     

一次区域性暴雪天气过程的诊断分析

利用Micaps常规天气资料和NCEP 1°×1° 6h再分析资料．采用天气学诊断方法．对2006年2月27日十堰市出现的一次区域性暴雪天气过程的环流特征和物理量场特征进行了分析。结果表明,此次区域性暴雪天气过程是在比较有利的天气背景条件下发生的,高空东移小槽、中低层切变线和地面冷锋是其主要的影响系统;中低层较强的暖湿气流（暖平流）沿低层冷空气垫爬升是产生强降雪的动力条件;强烈的水汽辐合为暴雪的产生提供了充足的水汽,暴雪区位于近似西南-东北向水汽通量轴线的左侧。