The Role of Aga Khan Rural Support Programme in Rural Development in the Karakorum, Hindu Kush ＆ Himalayan Region： Examples from the Northern Mountainous Belt of Pakistan

Pakistan is predominantly a mountainous country where rural development activities are characterised by inconsistency, politically motivated short-term projects without proper feedback. Since the inception of the country, the top-down approach has been followed, and the same development plans that were formulated for the plain areas have been extended to the mountains without any modification. In doing so, neither the participation of the local communities was cared for, nor the mountain specificities were considered in the planning process. Moreover, the representation of the local inhabitants was improper and contradictory to the facts. This biased approach has been one of the main causes for the failure of development projects carried out by different agencies of the Government. Contrary to the perception of the state authorities, the mountain communities proved to be more open to accept new approaches and demonstrated the capacity and capability of being a dependable development partner. In this paper, a detailed account of the Aga Khan Rural Support Programme （AKRSP） has been presented to assess and evaluate the approach followed by this non-governmental organisation （NGO）, and the response of the local inhabitants as collaborators in the development process. The achievements of the AKRSP from project planning, implementation and monitoring can be adopted as a model for rural development not only in the plains, but also in the mountainous areas of the developing countries in the world.     

Theory of stability, and regulation and control of ecological system in oasis

Starting with analysis on the evolving course of oasis and the characteristics and evolution of transitional zone between oasis and desert, in consideration of ecological elements including plant stomata resistance, area covered by vegetation, and physical elements including albedo of vegetation and bare soil, atmosphere temperature, and humidity, under the condition of the balance among net radiation flux, latent heat flux, and sensible heat flux, the following are calculated: temperatures of vegetation and bare soil in different conditions, as well as the evapotranspiration rate of ecosystem. Analysis on evapotranspiration rate indicates that it depends on both the climate of environment and the physiological and ecological conditions of plants. On certain conditions, the evapotranspiration rate of transitional zone between oasis and desert (i.e. area covered by vegetation less than 20%), in some parameter domains, appears in bifurcation or multiequilibrium state. Meanwhile, in such area, ecosystem is extremely unstable. Any minor change to the balance will cause either increase or reduction of area covered by vegetation in ecosystem, on the basis of discussion on the emergency of these phenomena. This paper is attempting to propose an effective way of destruction and rebuilt ecosystem in transitional zone. The way is to control the evaporation of plant through selecting anti-drought country plant with big stomata resistance, and modify the roughness of the underlying surface in ecosystem by establishing rational interspace structure of plant community, so as to put the degenerative ecosystem into the natural succession track. This primary theory is being verified through observation and analysis on historical data.     

Sensitivity analysis of support safety factor for predicting the effects of contributing parameters on roof falls in underground coal mines

Roof falls accounted for 18.18% of all fatal accidents in Indian coal mines, contributing about 35.29% of all fatal accidents in below-ground operations in 2005. The support safety factor, always preferred in support planning and design of underground coal mines, may be an important predictor for roof falls. In this paper, geotechnical data were collected from 14 roof fall incident places in an underground coal mine, located in the Eastern India, which has bord and pillar method of workings. The mean value of probabilistic support safety factor for the case study mine was found to be 1.24. However, the probability, of the estimated support safety factor of less than or equal to one, was found to be 0.246. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to analyze the effects of the contributing parameters on support safety factor and the likelihood of the roof fall. The multi-variate regression analysis was carried out for the data generated by Monte Carlo method to correlate the contributing factors to support safety factor. It ranked gallery width as the first parameter to control the support safety factor.     

Spatial Variability of Rock Depth in Bangalore Using Geostatistical, Neural Network and Support Vector Machine Models

Geospatial technology is increasing in demand for many applications in geosciences. Spatial variability of the bed/hard rock is vital for many applications in geotechnical and earthquake engineering problems such as design of deep foundations, site amplification, ground response studies, liquefaction, microzonation etc. In this paper, reduced level of rock at Bangalore, India is arrived from the 652 boreholes data in the area covering 220 km². In the context of prediction of reduced level of rock in the subsurface of Bangalore and to study the spatial variability of the rock depth, Geostatistical model based on Ordinary Kriging technique, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) models have been developed. In Ordinary Kriging, the knowledge of the semi-variogram of the reduced level of rock from 652 points in Bangalore is used to predict the reduced level of rock at any point in the subsurface of the Bangalore, where field measurements are not available. A new type of cross-validation analysis developed proves the robustness of the Ordinary Kriging model. ANN model based on multi layer perceptrons (MLPs) that are trained with Levenberg–Marquardt backpropagation algorithm has been adopted to train the model with 90% of the data available. The SVM is a novel type of learning machine based on statistical learning theory, uses regression technique by introducing loss function has been used to predict the reduced level of rock from a large set of data. In this study, a comparative study of three numerical models to predict reduced level of rock has been presented and discussed.     

鲁中南隆起区第四纪晚期断裂活动特征

根据野外调查，并综合前人的研究资料，对鲁中南地区第四纪晚期断裂活动进行了分析，研究表明，鲁中南隆起区第四纪断裂活动具有时空不均匀性，主要表现为第四纪时期断层活动强度变化和断裂活动的群集性以及第四纪晚期断裂活动段分布的局限性上。对于鲁中南地区而言，活动断层可以分为中更新世中期（500kaBP)至晚更新世初期（90kaBP)活断层和晚更新世中、晚期至全新世早期活断层两类；其中前一类（主要是中更新世断裂）断裂数量较多，分布较为广泛，而晚更新世晚期以来的活动断裂段的数量较少，分布较局限。它们对地震的控制能力不同，前者可控制5．5级左右的地震，而后一类可控制6－7级地震的发生。     

Chemical Fluxes of Asian Rivers into Oceans and their Controlling Factors

Chemical fluxes of Asian rivers into oceans bear different regional variations. Three zones are characteristic of distinct dissolved sediment loads and yields and ionic concentration.Rivers into oceans in China play an important role in Asia because of their different chemical fluxes, among which those draining the Loess Plateau have high ionic concentration, low water discharges and dissolved sediment loads and yields.Climate, vegetation, soil and strata lithology, chemical weathering intensity and tectonic activity dominate chemical fluxes of Asian rivers into oceans, and different factors have different effects on the chemical fluxes of separate regional rivers. Rising of the Tibet Plateau also exerts an important influence on chemical compositions of rivers originating from it.     

海岸带专题地图编绘相关问题

海岸带是影响人类活动的重要地带，海岸带专题地图能够详细表示出海岸带的特性。随着海洋经济的发展，海岸图的需求日益增加。从地图的数学要素出发，提出目前海岸图绘制存在的问题，并从地图学、海洋学、遥感地学的角度，对地图投影的选择、坐标系转换、比例尺对海岸图编绘的影响及控制点的确定等问题进行了综合分析。     

Main Controlling Factors on Hydrocarbon Accumulation and Distribution in Marine Sedimentary Sequences in South China

Multiple source rock assemblages were deposited in the sedimentary provinces in South China in geologic history,and some of them were destructed by and some survived against multiple tectonic movements.Therefore,multiple sources,mixed sources,and uneven distribution of sources occurred in the marine sedimentary basins in South China during the late stage of hydrocarbon pooling.Epidiagenesis of the marine carbonate reservoirs and its modification to reservoir poroperm characteristics determined the formation and the scale of natural gas pools.The exploration practices show that the large to medium gas fields mainly occur in areas with high-quality reservoirs.Detailed study of the paleo-oil accumulations and typical oil and gas reservoirs reveals that the basins experienced multiphase superimposition and modification,leading to the distribution of the Paleozoic paleo-oil accumulations and bitumen in the peripheral areas.The phenomenon that oil and gas production concentrates in the Sichuan basin indicates that the overall sealing conditions of a basin determine the oil/gas potentials and the scale of oil and gas production.This is a critical factor controlling the accumulation and distribution of gas in the marine sequences in South China.The early oil and gas pools in the Yangtze platform left billions of bitumen in the peripheral areas due to the destruction of seals.Since the Himalayan,"late-generation and late-accumulation" gas pools represented by the gas pools in the Sichuan (四川) basin were formed in the marine sedimentary sequences in South China as a result of the change of the sealing conditions.Current gas discoveries appear to be "paleo-generation and paleo-accumulation" gas pools but actually are "late-generation and late-accumulation" gas pools.These patterns of hydrocarbon pooling clearly depict themselves in western Sichuan basin and Weiyuan (威远)gas field.It is revealed that the gas pools in the Sichuan basin were mainly formed as a result of hydrocarbon phase change (thermal cracking of oil to gas),miscible migration,and dynamic equilibration since the Himalayan.A large number of gas pools were formed in the Himalayan and the gas pools in the marine sequences are characterized by late pooling; this kind of gas fields/pools are controlled by:(1) effectiveness of modification and superimposition of the marine basins,(2) effectiveness of the source rocks,(3) effectiveness of the overall preservation conditions,and (4) effectiveness of plays.     

基于支持向量机的CBERS-02卫星影像信息提取

CBERS卫星是由中国空间技术研究院与巴西空间研究院联合研制的地球资源遥感卫星,CBERS-02卫星数据总体质量比CBERS-01卫星有所提高,本文利用支持向量机方法对CBERS-02卫星影像信息进行提取。研究中首先用6S模式对影像进行大气校正,然后选择RBF为支持向量机方法的核函数,并用交叉验证方法得到影响RBF核函数的两个最佳参数值进行学习完成信息提取,最后将提取结果制作成矢量图。通过研究得出用大气校正后的数据进行信息提取分类精度有所提高;与最大似然法和最小距离法相比,支持向量机方法分类精度较高。通过将研究结果与ETM+影像进行比较得出,CBERS-02卫星影像精度能够满足应用需求并能代替TM/ETM+数据开展研究工作。     

陕西关中盆地中部地下热水H、O同位素交换 及其影响因素

对关中盆地地下热水δ＆18O和8D数据的研究表明：盆地中部西安、咸阳深部的地压地热流体发生明显的δ^18O同位素交换,并出现^2H同位素交换,表明热储流体发生了强烈的水岩反应,盆地周边及中部的非地压地热流体^18O交换则不明显。根据研究区^18O同位素的交换程度（用^2H过量参数d表征）和水化学资料,可将关中盆地热储流体分为循环型和封闭型热储流体2类。地热水埋深越大、滞留时间越长、TDS和温度越高、地质环境越封闭,18^O交换程度就越大。西安和咸阳地下热水分属于不同的地热系统,具有不同的补给来源。