近10年我国降水的QBO分析

近10年来我国东部地区降水分布趋势的年际变化具有QBO特征,双年的降水为中部地区少南北多,单年的降水为中部多南北少,其中江淮流域的降水变化最明显。分析表明,降水QBO的特征与西太平洋副高和冷空气活动有关,一般双年副高偏北、亚洲纬向环流发展,雨带偏北;单年相反,副高偏南、亚洲经向环流发展,雨带偏南,江淮流域降水较多。     

A comparison of the flood precipitation episode in August 2002 with historic extreme precipitation events on the Czech territory

The hydro-meteorological characteristics of the flood from August 2002, which affected a great part of the Czech territory, particularly the Vltava and Labe river basin, were compared with corresponding conditions during similar flood events in the summer seasons of 1997, 1890, 1897 and 1903. The comparison shows analogies in synoptic conditions and causal precipitation heights. The heaviest precipitation fell in the area of a considerable horizontal pressure gradient on the rearward side of the cyclone which advanced very slowly to the north-east across Central Europe and created conditions for the transport of moist air as well as for an organized long-term updraft enhanced in orographically exposed regions. The varying features of the individual events were based on the spatial–temporal distribution of causal precipitation and also on the very different saturation of the catchments. It was chiefly the extraordinary time concentration of precipitation together with the highest catchment saturation that made the flood in 2002 the most extreme.The extremeness of meteorological fields during two episodes in July 1997 was compared with two episodes in August 2002 with the aid of the reanalysis data from ECMWF. The first episode in 1997 and the second episode in 2002 were the most similar and more extreme in terms of the large-scale fields of basic meteorological quantities. The similar features of these episodes are specifically an intensive influx of moisture into Central Europe and intensive upward motions in the precipitation area. The extremeness of upper- and low-level potential vorticity fields was evaluated to diagnose the behavior of the cyclone and frontal precipitation bands accompanying it. The suitable spatial configuration of positive upper- and low-level potential vorticity anomalies induced an additional amplification of upward motions in the precipitation area that apparently contributed to triggering the heavy precipitation over Central Europe. On the whole, quantities reached more extreme values during the second episode in 2002.     

人类活动和降水变化对滑坡泥石流中长期演变的影响

根据滑坡泥石流灾害资料、耕地面积和公路里程等反映人类活动的资料以及降水资料,在定义了低纬高原区滑坡泥石流指数、人类活动指数和降水指数的基础上,研究了人类活动和降水变化对低纬高原区滑坡泥石流中长期演变的影响规律。结果表明,滑坡泥石流发生频次的中长期演变呈现出每年增加0.9次的趋势,且其演变具有明显的阶段性,从少发期到多发期的突变点出现在1993年。在11～16年的尺度上,人类活动与滑坡泥石流之间存在密切的关系。人类活动指数与滑坡泥石流发生频次之间为极显著的同位相关系,且人类活动超前于滑坡泥石流发生为0.2～2.8年;人类活动所导致的地质环境恶化是使低纬高原区滑坡泥石流频次增加的主要原因;除去人类活动影响后,低纬高原区滑坡泥石流与主汛期降水关系密切;在准3年和准6年尺度上,低纬高原区滑坡泥石流与主汛期降水呈显著的同位相关系,且低纬高原区主汛期降水超前于滑坡泥石流发生为0～0.8年;主汛期降水是影响低纬高原区滑坡泥石流频次变化的另一原因。最后,建立了考虑人类活动和主汛期降水且具有良好模拟和预测能力的低纬高原区滑坡泥石流的中长期演变预测模型。     

1950—2009年夏季菲律宾低空越赤道气流的变化特征

利用1950—2009年NECP/NCAR的月平均经向风再分析资料,根据夏季(6—8月)菲律宾低空越赤道气流的特征,定义了该支气流的强度指数IS和位置偏移指数IL,并根据这两个指数分析了菲律宾越赤道气流的时间变化特征及对应的环流特征,以及其与亚洲夏季降水的关系。结果表明,IS主要呈现弱、强、弱、强的年代际变化特征,IL主要呈现振荡、稳定、径直转向的年代际变化特征。IS与由低层澳大利亚高压北侧冷空气活跃和西太平洋副热带高压减弱所造成的经向气压梯度的变化有关,IL与澳大利亚地区和赤道低槽区高、低层的南北气压梯度有关。IS与印度尼西亚、孟加拉湾南部、热带西太平洋和澳大利亚东部的降水关系密切,IL与孟加拉湾和中国南海南部的降水关系密切。此外,IL与澳大利亚上空的垂直运动具有密切联系。     

春季青藏高原感热异常对长江中下游夏季降水影响的初步研究

探讨了春季青藏高原感热的分布特征,对高原地区地-气温差与感热的合成分析表明,长江中下游地区旱涝年春季高原近地层热力结构分布呈显著差异;统计分析与数值模拟试验也证实了春季高原下垫面感热南北非均匀异常分布,对长江中下游地区夏季降水存在着显著影响,即春季高原下垫面感热非均匀异常分布特征可能是长江中下游地区夏季旱涝的“强信号”之一。     

人类活动排放的CO2及气溶胶对20世纪70年代末中国东部夏季降水年代际转折的影响

全球变暖背景下,中国东部夏季降水在20世纪70年代末开始较19世纪呈现东北及长江中、下游地区多雨,华北及华南少雨的特征。与此同时,人类活动排放的CO₂及气溶胶量也发生了明显的年代际变化。文中利用地球系统耦合模式（CESM）诊断了中国东部夏季的水分收支对人类活动排放的CO₂及气溶胶年代际变化的响应。发现CO₂排放量增加后,江淮流域的水汽辐合以及中国南方的水汽辐散主要是与质量辐散有关的动力项及与湿度梯度相关的热力项共同作用的结果,但动力作用更显著。气溶胶效应则主要通过动力作用使得江淮流域水汽辐合,而中国南方地区水汽辐散。虽然CO₂和气溶胶对辐射量及温度的影响差别很大,但通过改变温度梯度,热成风效应产生的动力作用都会导致江淮流域上升运动增强,降水增多;而中国南方下沉运动显著,降水减少,与观测结果一致,且CO₂相较于气溶胶的影响更为显著,证实了20世纪70年代末人类活动对中国东部夏季降水年代际转折的影响。      

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin in the Extreme Summer of 2020※

Seasonal forecasts for Yangtze River basin rainfall in June, May–June–July (MJJ), and June–July–August (JJA) 2020 are presented, based on the Met Office GloSea5 system. The three-month forecasts are based on dynamical predictions of an East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) index, which is transformed into regional-mean rainfall through linear regression. The June rainfall forecasts for the middle/lower Yangtze River basin are based on linear regression of precipitation. The forecasts verify well in terms of giving strong, consistent predictions of above-average rainfall at lead times of at least three months. However, the Yangtze region was subject to exceptionally heavy rainfall throughout the summer period, leading to observed values that lie outside the 95％ prediction intervals of the three-month forecasts. The forecasts presented here are consistent with other studies of the 2020 EASM rainfall, whereby the enhanced mei-yu front in early summer is skillfully forecast, but the impact of midlatitude drivers enhancing the rainfall in later summer is not captured. This case study demonstrates both the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Yangtze region and the potential limitations in anticipating complex extreme events driven by a combination of coincident factors.     

Invasive potential of the winter grass Schismus barbatus during the winter season of a predominantly summer-rainfall desert in Central-Northern Monte

Biological invasions are a major threat for natural ecosystems. Deserts are characterized by their scarce, highly variable rainfall and thus considerably susceptible to invasions, especially by annual plants that can quickly capitalize sporadic rainfall events. In this study we evaluated the potential of an invasive winter-annual species native to the Mediterranean region (Schismus barbatus) to invade a summer-rainfall desert in the Central-Northern Monte Phytogeographical Province, Argentina, where the native annual flora is mainly composed of summer species. We recorded the number of germinated seeds from soil samples collected in four seasons (during one year) coinciding with four important life-stages of Schismus (pre-germination, post-germination I and II and post-dispersal), and contrasted our results with data obtained from the literature. Almost 33,000 Schismus seeds were estimated to germinate per m², and about 90% percent of them germinated from samples collected in the pre-germination stage. Compared to deserts in USA and Australia, where Schismus has been a successful invader, the density of germinated seeds we observed was especially high even though the amount of rainfall for the vegetative period of Schismus was considerable lower. Our results suggest that S. barbatus has a great invasive potential in the Central-Northern Monte. The low number of annual plant populations that are able to compete for highly variable cool-season rains may be a key feature determining the invasibility of these deserts during the winter.     

夏季北极涛动与西北夏季干湿特征的年代际关系

 摘要： 利用中国西北地区（新、青、甘、宁、陕及内蒙古西部地区）1960—2003年131个测站夏季降水量、小型蒸发皿蒸发量，NECP/NCAR月平均再分析资料及夏季北极涛动指数，首先通过降水量和蒸发量定义了均一化干湿指数，进而分析了夏季北极涛动同西北地区夏季干湿特征之间的关系。研究表明：夏季北极涛动与西北地区大部分地区夏季干湿特征之间存在着显著的正相关关系，特别是年代际尺度上关系尤其密切。夏季北极涛动与西北地区夏季干湿特征空间变化的南北差异密切相关，在夏季AO偏强年代，海平面气压场在东亚大陆为正距平，太平洋为负距平;700 hPa风场在贝加尔湖地区及其下方有较强的反气旋性距平环流，西北西风带区出现西风距平，季风区出现北风距平，而500 hPa高度场在中国西北地区表现为西低东高结构。这样使得东亚夏季风偏弱，西北西风带区在夏季以西风气流为主，降水偏多，气候偏湿，而季风区盛行偏北气流，降水偏少，气候偏干。反之亦然。     

南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系

本文对长江中下游夏季旱涝年前期（3、4、5月的季节平均）和同期（6、7、8月的季节平均）的南半球环流作对比分析,探讨南半球环流异常与长江中下游夏季旱涝的关系. 结果表明前期和同期南半球环流均有显著差异,春季南极涛动对长江中下游旱涝的影响较夏季显著,南半球副热带高压在春、夏两季中有很好季节持续性. 因此,春季南半球环流异常可以作为长江中下游夏季旱涝主要短期气候预测因子. 南、北半球中高纬环流相互作用是长江中下游夏季降水的一个重要因素,其可能的联系机制是从南半球高纬到北半球东亚沿岸经向分布的正压遥相关. 研究中还发现在长江中下游的涝年,整个对流层中南半球春、夏两季有持续增温,这说明了南北半球的温度梯度减弱也是东亚夏季风减弱的原因之一.