Predicting Diel,Diurnal and Nocturnal Dynamics of Dissolved Oxygen and Chlorophyll‐a Using Regression Models and Neural Networks

Human‐induced and natural interruptions with continuous streams of observational data necessitate the development of gap‐filling and prediction strategies towards better understanding, monitoring and management of aquatic systems. This study quantified the efficacy of multiple non‐linear regression (MNLR) versus artificial neural network (ANN) models as well as the temporal partitioning of diurnal versus nocturnal data for the predictions of chlorophyll‐a (chl‐a) and dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics. The temporal partitioning increased the predictive performances of the best MNLR models of diurnal DO by 45% and nocturnal DO by 4%, relative to the best diel MNLR model of diel DO ($r_{{\rm adj}}^{2} = 68.8\%$ ). The ANN‐based predictions had a higher predictive power than the MNLR‐based predictions for both chl‐a and DO except for diurnal DO dynamics. The best ANNs based on independent validations were multilayer perceptron (MLP) for diel chl‐a, generalized feedforward (GFF) for diurnal and nocturnal chl‐a, MLP for diel DO, GFF for diurnal DO, and MLP for nocturnal DO.     

Predicting the displacement of triple pendulum™ bearings in a full‐scale shaking experiment using a three‐dimensional element

The accuracy of a series spring model to predict the peak displacement and displacement history of Triple Pendulum? (TP) bearings in a strongly shaken, full‐scale building is evaluated in this paper. The series spring model was implemented as a self‐contained three‐dimensional TP bearing element in OpenSees and is now available for general use. The TP bearing element contains the option for constant friction or a generalized friction model that accounts for the effect of instantaneous velocity and compression load on the friction coefficient. Comparison between numerical simulation and experimental data of a five‐story steel moment frame building shows that the peak displacement of isolation system can generally be predicted with confidence using a constant friction coefficient model. The friction coefficient model accounting for the effect of axial load and velocity leads to minor improvement over the constant friction coefficient models in some cases. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interaction between the controls on fluvial system development: tectonics,climate, base level and river capture – Rio Alias,Southeast Spain

Fluvial systems in uplifting terrain respond to tectonic, climatic, eustatic and local base‐level controls modified by specific local factors, such as river capture. The Rio Alias in southeast Spain is an ephemeral, transverse‐to‐structure fluvial system. The river drains two interconnected Neogene sedimentary basins, the Sorbas and Almeria basins, and crosses two major geological structures, the Sierras de Alhamilla/Cabrera and the Carboneras Fault Zone. Regional epeirogenic uplift resulted in sustained fluvial incision during the Quaternary, punctuated by major climatically driven periods of aggradation and dissection, which created a suite of five river terraces. The river terrace sequence was radically modified in the late Pleistocene by a major river capture (itself a response to regional tectonics), localized tectonic activity and eustatic base‐level change. The Rio Alias is defined by four reaches; within each the climatically‐generated, region‐wide, fluvial response was modified by tectonics, base‐level change or river capture to varying degrees. In the upper part of the basin (Lucainena reach), climate was the dominant control on river development, with limited modification of the sequence by uplift of the Sierra Alhamilla and local drainage reorganization by a local river capture. Downstream of the Sierra Alhamilla in the Polopus reach, the climatic signal is dominant, but its expression is radically modified by the response to a major river capture whereby the Alias system lost up to 70% of its pre‐capture drainage area. In the reach adjacent to the Carboneras Fault Zone (Argamason reach), modification of the terrace sequence by local tectonic activity and a resultant local base‐level fall led to a major local incisional event (propagating c. 3–4 km upstream from the area of tectonic disturbance). At the seaward end of the system (El Saltador reach) Quaternary sea‐level changes modified the patterns of erosion and incision and have resulted in steep incisional terrace profiles. The signals generated by regional tectonics and the Quaternary climate change can be identified throughout the basin but those generated by ongoing local tectonics, river capture and sea‐level change are spatially restricted and define the four reaches. The connectivity of the system from the headwaters to the coast decreased through time as incision progressed, resulting in changes in local coupling characteristics. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inelastic displacement demands in steel structures and their relationship with earthquake frequency content parameters

This paper deals with the estimation of peak inelastic displacements of SDOF systems, representative of typical steel structures, under constant relative strength scenarios. Mean inelastic deformation demands on bilinear systems (simulating moment resisting frames) are considered as the basis for comparative purposes. Additional SDOF models representing partially‐restrained and concentrically‐braced (CB) frames are introduced and employed to assess the influence of different force‐displacement relationships on peak inelastic displacement ratios. The studies presented in this paper illustrate that the ratio between the overall yield strength and the strength during pinching intervals is the main factor governing the inelastic deformations of partially‐restrained models and leading to significant differences when compared with predictions based on bilinear structures, especially in the short‐period range. It is also shown that the response of CB systems can differ significantly from other pinching models when subjected to low or moderate levels of seismic demand, highlighting the necessity of employing dedicated models for studying the response of CB structures. Particular attention is also given to the influence of a number of scalar parameters that characterise the frequency content of the ground motion on the estimated peak displacement ratios. The relative merits of using the average spectral period T_aver, mean period T_m, predominant period T_g, characteristic period T_c and smoothed spectral predominant period T_o of the earthquake ground motion, are assessed. This paper demonstrates that the predominant period, defined as the period at which the input energy is maximum throughout the period range, is the most suitable frequency content scalar parameter for reducing the variability in displacement estimations. Finally, noniterative equivalent linearisation expressions based on the secant period and equivalent damping ratios are presented and verified for the prediction of peak deformation demands in steel structures. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surveillance of Invasive Bacterial Pathogens and Human Enteric Viruses in Wastewater Final Effluents and Receiving Water Bodies – a Case Study from Durban,South Africa

The physico‐chemical characteristics and microbial composition of the final effluents of two municipal wastewater treatment plants in South Africa were assessed between July and September 2009. The impact of the treated final effluents on the receiving water bodies was also evaluated. The temperature across all sampling points ranged between 14 and 22°C, while pH varied from 6.9 to 7.6. High levels of turbidity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia, nitrate, nitrite and orthophosphate (PO₄) were observed in many cases. Turbidity of the samples was in the range of 2.2–288.6 NTU. The concentrations (mg/L) of other physico‐chemical parameters are as follows: COD (9.33–289); ammonia (0.000340–45.4); nitrate (0.062–539); nitrite (0.021–22.6); PO₄ (5.3–33.2). The microbial quality of the effluents discharged from the plants did not comply with the limits set by the South African guidelines with respect to pathogens such as Salmonella, Shigella, Escherichia coli, total coliform, faecal coliform, enterococci, faecal streptococci, and viral particles for effluents intended for discharge into receiving watersheds. This study revealed an undesirable impact on the physico‐chemical and microbial qualities of the receiving water bodies as a result of the discharge of inadequately treated effluents from the wastewater treatment facilities. This poses a health risk to several rural communities which rely on the receiving water bodies primarily as their sources of domestic water and recreational purposes. There is therefore a need for the intervention of appropriate regulatory agencies in South Africa to ensure compliance of treatment facilities with wastewater effluent quality standards.     

Timing and development of sedimentation of the Cleaverville Formation and a post‐accretion pull‐apart system in the Cleaverville area,coastal Pilbara Terrane,Pilbara, Western Australia

In the Cleaverville area of Western Australia, the Regal, Dixon Island, and Cleaverville Formations preserve a Mesoarchean lower‐greenschist‐facies volcano‐sedimentary succession in the coastal Pilbara Terrane. These formations are distributed in a rhomboidal‐shaped area and are unconformably overlain by two narrowly distributed shallow‐marine sedimentary sequences: the Sixty‐Six Hill and Forty‐Four Hill Members of the Lizard Hills Formation. The former member is preserved within the core of the Cleaverville Syncline and the latter formed along the northeast‐trending Eighty‐Seven Fault. Based on the metamorphic grade and structures, two deformation events are recognized: D₁ resulted in folding caused by a collisional event, and D₂ resulted in regional sinistral strike‐slip deformation. A previous study reported that the Cleaverville Formation was deposited at 3020 Ma, after the Prinsep Orogeny (3070–3050 Ma). Our SHRIMP U–Pb zircon ages show that: (i) graded volcaniclastic–felsic tuff within the black shale sequence below the banded iron formation in the Cleaverville Formation yields an age of (3 114 ±14) Ma; (ii) the youngest zircons in sandstones of the Sixty‐Six Hill Member, which unconformably overlies pillow basalt of the Regal Formation, yield ages of 3090–3060 Ma; and (iii) zircons in sandstones of the Forty‐Four Hill Member show two age peaks at 3270 Ma and 3020 Ma. In this way, the Cleaverville Formation was deposited at 3114–3060 Ma and was deformed at 3070–3050 Ma (D₁). Depositional age of the Cleaverville Formation is at least 40–90 Myr older than that proposed in previous studies and pre‐dates the Prinsep Orogeny (3070–3050 Ma). After 3020 Ma, D₂ resulted in the formation of a regional strike‐slip pull‐apart basin in the Cleaverville area. The lower‐greenschist‐facies volcano‐sedimentary rocks are distributed only within this basin structure. This strike‐slip deformation was synchronous with crustal‐scale sinistral shear deformation (3000–2930 Ma) in the Pilbara region.     

Shaking table test and analysis method on ultimate behavior of slender base‐isolated structure supported by laminated rubber bearings

This paper describes the results of shaking table tests to ascertain the ultimate behavior of slender base‐isolated buildings and proposes a time history response analysis method, which can predict the ultimate behavior of base‐isolated buildings caused by buckling fracture in laminated rubber bearings. In the tests, a base‐isolated structure model weighing 192 kN supported by four lead rubber bearings is used. The experimental parameters are the aspect ratio of height‐to‐distance between the bearings and the shape of and the axial stress on the bearings. The test results indicate that the motion types of the superstructure at large input levels can be classified into three types: the sinking type; the uplift type; and the mixed type. These behaviors depend on the relationship between the static ultimate lateral uplifting force on the superstructure and the lateral restoring characteristics of the base‐isolated story. In the analysis method, bearing characteristics are represented by a macroscopic mechanical model that is expanded by adding an axial spring to an existing model. Nonlinear spring characteristics are used for its rotational, shear, and axial spring. The central difference method is applied to solve the equation of motion. To verify the validity of the method, simulation analysis of the shaking table tests are carried out. The results of the analysis agree well with the test results. The proposed model can express the buckling behavior of bearings in the large deformation range. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theory and experimental study for sliding isolators with variable curvature

Because a conventional isolation system with constant isolation frequency is usually a long‐period dynamic system, its seismic response is likely to be amplified in earthquakes with strong long‐period wave components, such as near‐fault ground motions. Seismic isolators with variable mechanical properties may provide a promising solution to alleviate this problem. To this end, in this work sliding isolators with variable curvature (SIVC) were studied experimentally. An SIVC isolator is similar to a friction pendulum system (FPS) isolator, except that its sliding surface has variable curvature rather being spherical. As a result, the SIVC's isolation stiffness that is proportional to the curvature becomes a function of the isolator displacement. By appropriately designing the geometry of the sliding surface, the SIVC is able to possess favorable hysteretic behavior. In order to prove the applicability of the SIVC concept, several prototype SIVC isolators, whose sliding surfaces are defined by a sixth‐order polynomial function, were fabricated and tested in this study. A cyclic element test on the prototype SIVC isolators and a shaking table test on an SIVC isolated steel frame were all conducted. The results of both tests have verified that the prototype SIVC isolators do indeed have the hysteretic property of variable stiffness as prescribed by the derived formulas in this study. Moreover, it is also demonstrated that the proposed SIVC is able to effectively reduce the isolator drift in a near‐fault earthquake with strong long‐period components, as compared with that of an FPS system with the same friction coefficient. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures

A versatile, simulation‐based framework for risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis of base‐isolated structures is discussed in this work. A probabilistic foundation is used to address the various sources of uncertainties, either excitation or structural, and to characterize seismic risk. This risk is given, in this stochastic setting, by some statistics of the system response over the adopted probability models and stochastic simulation is implemented for its evaluation. An efficient, sampling‐based approach is also introduced for establishing a probabilistic sensitivity analysis to identify the importance of each of the uncertain model parameters in affecting the overall risk. This framework facilitates use of complex models for the structural system and the excitation. The adopted structural model explicitly addresses nonlinear characteristics of the isolators and of any supplemental dampers, and the effect of seismic pounding of the base to the surrounding retaining walls. An efficient stochastic ground motion model is also discussed for characterizing future near‐fault ground motions and relating them to the seismic hazard for the structural site. An illustrative example is presented that emphasizes the results from the novel probabilistic sensitivity analysis and their dependence on seismic pounding occurrences and on addition of supplemental dampers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of snowmelt runoff model for water resource management

Snow‐covered areas (SCAs) are the fundamental source of water for the hydrological cycle for some region. Accurate measurements of river discharge from snowmelt can help manage much needed water required for hydropower generation and irrigation purposes. This study aims to apply the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) in the Upper Indus basin by the Astore River in northern Pakistan for the years 2000 to 2006. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data are used to generate the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the region. Various variables (snow cover depletion curves (SCDCs), temperature and precipitation) and parameters (degree‐day factor, recession coefficient, runoff coefficients, time lag, critical temperature and temperature lapse rate) are used as input in the SRM. However, snow cover data are direct and an important input to the SRM. Satellite data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are used to estimate the SCA. Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) algorithm is applied for snow cover mapping and to differentiate snow from other land features. Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of determination (R²) and volume difference (D_V) are used for quality assessment of the SRM. The results of the current research show that for the study years (2000–2006), the average value of R² is 0·87 and average volume difference D_V is 1·18%. The correlation coefficient between measured and computed runoff is 0·95. The results of the study further show that a high level of accuracy can be achieved during the snowmelt season. The simulation results endorse that the SRM in conjunction with MODIS snow cover product is very useful for water resource management in the Astore River and can be used for runoff forecasts in the Indus River basin in northern Pakistan. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.