市政管道的全寿命风险评估

市政管道的全寿命风险评估是市政管道风险管理的重要组成部分,准确而有效的评估决策关系到管道建设的成败问题。本文通过对市政管道全寿命周期内单元风险进行识别与分类;采用现有的管道风险技术,和专家评分法等方法对风险因子进行实效因素评分,然后进行市政管道的全寿命风险评估。     

Applicability of Single and Sequential Extractions for Assessing the Potential Mobility of Heavy Metals in Contaminated Soils

Heavy metal polluted sites are bearing an acute hazardous risk for the groundwater, but also a potential one. While the acute risk can be assessed directly via seepage water measurements, determination of the potential risk is much more complex. It results from the sum of all reactions that are capable to mobilize heavy metals under worst case environ-mental conditions. Using a fourfold sequential extraction (SE₄) such a worst case was simulated for four soils highly contaminated with Pb, Zn, and Cu. The resulting potential mobilizable amounts ϕ_pm have been compared with those derived from 6 single extractions. By means of variance analyses, it is shown that ϕ_pm of lead can be represented by a single extraction with NH₂OH. In contrary, ϕ_pm of zinc can be represented using the pH_stat test or an extraction with aqua regia, while ϕ_pm of copper can be represented only by aqua regia extraction. The water-soluble amounts deriving from the DEV-S4 test do not correlate with the potential mobilizable amounts of any metal. Therefore, an assessment of contaminated sites should include an aqua regia extraction additionally to the seepage water analysis.     

2017年8月9日精河6.6级地震灾害损失及灾后恢复重建经费评估

2017年8月9日新疆精河发生6.6级地震,地震造成36人受伤,各类房屋建筑、公共服务设施、基础设施等遭受不同程度的破坏。通过实地抽样调查,按照国家标准的原则和方法,评估出此次地震造成的直接经济损失为429964万元,灾后恢复重建经费约需538461万元。     

渔港防台风等级评估研究 ——以霞关一级渔港为例

文章通过对历史上影响苍南近岸海域的24场风暴潮过程进行分析筛选,确定1323“菲特”为最危险台风路径基础,设计了8~17级的间距为22.5 km的18条构造台风路径,采用FVCOM浪、潮、流耦合模式分别计算潮位场、流场和浪场分布,通过分析渔港岸线是否淹没、锚泊地是否船只走锚、防波堤防浪能力3个指标确定单项防台评估能力,按“就低不就高”的原则最终确定霞关一级渔港的防台风等级为9级,并且渔船锚泊是渔港的薄弱环节,最后结合研究过程中发现的问题,提出渔港防台风建议。     

Alternatives of strategic environmental assessment for road traffic development planning—Case of Changchun City, China

On analyzing the achievement of the goal in the modern urban road traffic development planning, the alternative of Strategic Environmental Assessment for urban traffic planning should include the basic scheme, the extended scheme and the environmental protection scheme. This study from different perspectives designed the alternatives for Changchun's county-level road and urban road system planning, and used the method of System Dynamics to simulate, optimize and analyze those alternatives. Thereafter, some methods including the correlation function method were used to comprehensively assess and rank those alternatives for recommending two best alternatives with the consideration to the indicators, such as the total emission amount of CO, the total emission amount of nitrogen oxides, the noise value, the road construction cost, the fossil oil consumption and the traffic capacity. The result showed that the study would provide substantial supports for decision-makers to make more scientific decisions and promote the sustainable urban traffic in Changchun City.     

围填海工程生态建设水平评估研究

围填海工程生态化建设及生态化水平评估对于切实提高围填海的生态门槛,保护海洋生态资源具有重大意义。文章以提高围填海工程生态化建设水平为目标,构建围填海工程生态化水平评估指标体系。研究结果表明,生态化平面设计、生态化海堤和生态化岸滩是评估围填海工程生态化水平的关键指标,专家相对权重值分别为0.23、0.21和0.19;变异系数和肯德尔和谐系数的计算结果表明,生态化平面设计、生态化海堤和长期监测评估的变异系数较小,表明专家对3类指标认可度基本一致。研究提出生态化建设水平评估总分值在0.6以上为合格;0.6～0.7生态化建设水平为中;0.7～0.9生态化建设水平为良好,0.9以上生态化建设水平为优。     

R值用于地震预测效能评估中的问题与改进

在回顾地震预测效能检验的基础上,对Ｒ值评分法进行了进一步的理论推导,给出了预报指标“有异常”与“无异常”状态下预报的震发生的Ｒ值及其相互关系,多异常状态下地震发生的Ｒ值分布计算及其与方法总的Ｒ值的关系及在异常取值间隔与预报时空尺度不一致的情况下Ｒ值的正确计算与预报方法等结果,最后讨论了与预报评分相关的一些问题。     

遥感数据专题分类不确定性评价研究：进展、问题与展望

从遥感数据中提取专题类别信息是当前遥感数据最主要的应用领域之一。由于遥感分类专题信息广泛应用于各种领域，其数据质量受到越来越多的关注。不确定性是评价分类专题类别数据质量最主要的方面。回顾了遥感数据专题分类不确定性评价方法的历史，总结了当前各种评价方法及其指标体系，将这些方法归结为基于误差矩阵的方法、模糊评价方法、像元尺度上的不确定性评价方法和其它方法四大类。对每一类不确定性评价方法及其指标体系的优点和缺点进行了分析和总结，指出从理论方法研究方面，需要优先发展独立于分类方法的像元尺度上的遥感分类不确定性评价模型与指标体系，以及统一的遥感数据分类不确定性评价模型体系研究；在应用研究方面，需要加强优化空间采样设计和不确定性评价过程标准化研究。     

原子荧光光度法测定土壤样品中砷的不确定度评定

通过原子荧光光度法对土壤样品中砷重复测定6次，计算实验标准差，同时对测试过程系统效应产生的不确定度分量进行评估，从而评定其不确定度。     

强雷区高层建筑雷电风险评估技术探讨

通过对某高层建筑物的雷电风险评估,雷电风险评估方法和从雷电环境特点、风险分量和损失类型、风险评估计算等方面对某高层建筑物的雷电风险评估,得到评估建筑物的雷电风险评估综合结论,并提出了具体的防护建议.