论东海陆架盆地玉泉运动

据地质及地球物理勘探资料，并结合周围邻近盆地的对比研究后提出：（１）目前确定的新玉泉运动，其影响比前人描述的轻微得多；（２）以前所确定的原（老）玉泉运动的活动强度比新玉泉运动强烈得多，不应将原（老）玉泉运动取消，而应将新、老玉泉运动的间隔期视为构造变革过渡期。     

A numerical procedure for predicting rainfall‐induced movements of active landslides along pre‐existing slip surfaces

A numerical model to predict landslide movements along pre‐existing slip surfaces from rainfall data is presented. The model comprises: a transient seepage finite‐element analysis to compute the variations of pore water pressures due to rainfall; a limit equilibrium stability analysis to compute the factors of safety along the slip surface associated with transient pore pressure conditions; an empirical relationship between the factor of safety and the rate of displacement of the slide along the slip surface; an optimization algorithm for the calibration of analyses and relationships based on available monitoring data. The model is validated with reference to a well‐monitored active slide in central Italy, characterized by very slow movements occurring within a narrow band of weathered bedrock overlaid by a clayey silt colluvial cover. The model is conveniently divided and presented in two parts: a groundwater model and a kinematic model. In the first part, monthly recorded rainfall data are used as time‐dependent flow boundary conditions of the transient seepage analysis, while piezometric levels are used to calibrate the analysis by minimizing the errors between monitoring data and computed pore pressures. In the second part, measured inclinometric movements are used to calibrate the empirical relationship between the rate of displacement along the slip surface and the factor of safety, whose variation with time is computed by a time‐dependent stability analysis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

定向移动基于马尔科夫链的时空不确定性

概率时间地理是经典时间地理基于概率的一种扩展,它采用概率描述移动对象在可达位置的非等可能性。已有的概率时间地理是基于正态分布或布朗桥的,其方差与移动速度无关或随移动速度的增大而发散,因而难以兼顾应用针对性和稳定性。本文提出了一种基于马尔科夫链的概率时间地理方法。首先,构建中间关于两边的双向条件马尔科夫链,它在移动速度足够大时的极限可视为布朗桥,因而具有稳定性数字特征。然后,建立定向移动到马尔科夫链的映射关系,主要是根据定向移动的时空位置、移动速度等信息建立马尔科夫链的步长、状态空间和转移矩阵,这样马尔科夫链与移动速度有关。最后,利用双向马尔科夫链连续计算定向移动在任意时刻的概率分布云,其方差的针对性和稳定性在实例中进行了验证。     

松辽盆地长岭断陷营城组火山岩储集空间特征及演化

通过对长岭断陷营城组火山岩岩心、铸体薄片的详细观察和物性资料的统计分析认为,该区储层岩石类型多样,主要有流纹岩、流纹质晶屑凝灰岩和原地自碎角砾化熔岩等,不同岩石类型其储集空间发育特征不同,但主要由原生气孔、次生溶孔和裂缝组合构成储集空间。储集空间演化过程可分为三个阶段:原生储集空间形成阶段、表生淋滤作用阶段和埋藏成岩作用阶段,在以上演化过程中,储集性能受岩性岩相、构造运动和风化淋滤溶蚀作用的共同影响,在受深大断裂控制的火山机构近火山口相带、古构造高部位的溶蚀岩相带,裂缝及后期溶蚀孔隙发育,是优质储层分布区。     

罕见的“强烈震群”活动

本文介绍了全世界范围内的“强烈震群”的地区分布、活动频率和强度等特征，并指出“强烈震群”主要分布在太平洋西半部的岛弧－海沟地带，这些“强烈震群”是依据近百年来的现代地震仪观测数据获得的。     

盾构偏航引起的地表位移预测

对于盾构隧道的设计和施工，解析方法预测地表沉降，具有使用简便、物理意义明确的特点。在Sagaseta提出的基于由地层损失引起的地表沉降理论基础上，结合工程实际情况，提出了模拟盾构推进过程的三维地层损失模式，并推导了相应的地表位移计算解析公式，对实际工程具有参考价值。     

The recent fault scarps of the Western Alps (France): Tectonic surface ruptures or gravitational sackung scarps? A combined mapping, geomorphic, levelling, and Be dating approach

In the Western Alps, some recent scarps were previously interpreted as surface ruptures of tectonic reverse and normal faults that agree with microseismicity and GPS measurements. Our analysis shows that in fact there are hundreds of recent scarps, up to 30 m high and 2.1 km long, with only pure normal motions. They share the same characteristics as typical sackung scarps. The scarps are mainly uphill facing, parallel to the ridge crests and the contour lines. They are relatively short (less than 2.1 km) with respect to tectonic fault ruptures, and organized in swarms. They cut screes and relict rock glaciers with a slow (commonly 1 mm/year) average slip rate. In the Aiguilles Grives massif these sackung scarps clearly express the gravitational toppling of sub-vertical bedding planes in hard rocks. In contrast, the Belledonne Outer Crystalline Massif exhibits scarps that stem from the gravitational reactivation of conjugate tectonic faults. The recent faults extend to about 1600 m beneath the Rognier ridge crest, but are always above the valley floor. The main scarp swarm is 9.2 km long and constitutes the largest sackung ever described in the Western Alps. ¹⁰Be dating of a scarp and offset surfaces shows that > 4 m slip may have occurred rapidly (in less than 3800 years) sometimes between the end of the glaciation and 8800 ± 1900 years ago. This dating, together with the location of some faults far from the deep glacial valleys, suggests that sagging might have been triggered by strong earthquakes during a post-glacial period of probably enhanced seismicity. The Belledonne and Synclinal Median faults (just beneath the Rognier sackung) could have been the sources of this seismicity.     

Central Chile: An example of quasi-static crustal behavior

Abstract Indications of transient crustal displacement associated with the 3 March 1985, M, = 7.8, Central Chile earthquake are evidenced by various observational devices. Almost half a meter of coastal uplift at localities close to the epicentral region was detected by repeated leveling lines. A tide gauge at Valparaiso revealed minor coseismic coastal subsidence (∼ 10 cm) continuously developing after the earthquake. Two limnigraphs, 27 km apart, that were situated at the extremes of Rapel Lake to the south of the leveling line, have recorded continuously the equipotential lake level for more than 10 years, providing a permanent very-long-base tiltmeter. The water level difference at the two limnigraphs as a function of time resembles a ramp function, beginning approximately at the time of the earthquake occurrence and gradually developing over a period of 10 months with a maximum amplitude of 120 mm or 4.4 p radians in tilt. The shape of the time-dependent tilt is mimicked by the sea level signal recorded at Valparaiso, ∼ 100 km away from Rapel Lake, showing a maximum coastal subsidence of 0.6 m. Comparisons of sea level changes produced by the 1971, M, = 7.5, earthquake indicates that they represent rupture in different portions along the seismogenetic region as well as a different rupture mode. Gravity surveys carried out in three different pre- and post-seismic epochs, along the segment of the leveling line which shows major coseismic uplift, indicate that the whole region has subsided, post-seismically, 10 em in 5 years. These observations are interpreted in terms of a variable slip dislocation model. Inversions show that it is the more than 2 m of fault displacement in 10 months of post-seismic movement along the contact between the Nazca and South America plates, which is interpreted to be responsible for the time-dependent elevation changes.     

福建沿海全新世地壳垂直运动速率

本文以78个古海面遗迹为根据,运用线性相关的计算方法讨论了:(1)闽东沿海(福鼎、宁德、罗源、连江等地);(2)福州盆地与长乐海岸平原;(3)福清龙高半岛与平潭岛;(4)莆田沿海。(5)九龙江平原;(6)漳浦、云霄、东山、诏安等地的全新世地壳垂直运动速率。在全新世时本区大部分地区以上升运动为主、平均速率一般为0.8—2.8毫米/年,在时空上略呈规律性变化,结果与形变测量资料可以对比