Quantitative precipitation forecasting over Narmada Catchment

Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been attempted over the Narmada Catchment following a statistical approach. The catchment has been divided into five sub-regions for the development of QPF models with a maximum lead-time of 24 hours. For this purpose the data of daily rainfall from 56 raingauge stations, twice daily observations on different surface meteorological parameters from 28 meteorological observatories and upper air data from 11 aerological stations for the nine monsoon seasons of 1972–1980 have been utilized. The horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture divergence are computed using the kinematic method at different pressure levels and used as independent variables along with the rainfall and surface meteorological parameters. Multiple linear regression equations have been developed using the stepwise procedure separately with actual and square root and log-transformed rainfall using 8-year data (1972–1979). When these equations were verified with an independent data for the monsoon season of 1980, it was found that the transformed rainfall equations fared much better compared to the actual rainfall equations. The performance of the forecasts of QPF model compared to the climatological and persistence forecasts has been assessed by computing the verification scores using the forecasts for the monsoon season of 1980.     

节理岩体的分维特征及其工程地质意义

本文用分形理论,对节理网络分布和粗糙度曲线进行分形分析。结果表明,节理的空间分布和粗糙度曲线具自相似性;分维是一个表征岩体强度、岩体损伤程度、岩体质量及节理粗糙程度的几何参数,并可用于评价岩体稳定性、断裂体系活动性及划分风化卸荷带等。     

地震多元参数综合解释煤层结构

利用时间域和频率域的多元地震参数解释煤层结构属于岩性地震勘探范畴。将该技术用于陕北大保当勘探区,配合地质研究,成功地确定了2~(-2)煤层的结构变化情况,确定的煤层分叉线同单纯依靠地震解释或地质推断的煤层分叉线比较,精度明显提高。     

Source parameters for the January 1975 Brawley — Imperial valley earthquake swarm

The source parameters, moment, stress drop and source dimension are estimated for 61 events from the January 1975 Brawley earthquake swarm. Earthquakes studied range in local magnitude from 1.0 to 4.7. Stress drops range from 1 to 636 bars and increase with source depth. It is estimated that the sedimentary structure of the Imperial Valley amplifies shear waves by a factor of 2 to 3 in addition to the free surface amplification of 2. Estimates of moment from 10 sec surface waves are 4 to 6 times larger than the moment estimated from the relatively flat part of the local body wave spectrum at 1 sec. This may be due to after-slip on the fault, a long thin fault, or partial stress drop. It is shown that the experimentally determined ratio of stress drop to apparent stress should be approximately 4.0 when spectrum integration is used to obtainS-wave energy and theP-wave energy is 1/3 theS-wave energy.     

Ray parameters of diffracted long period P and S waves and the velocities at the base of the mantle

The derivation of P and S velocities at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from long-period diffracted waves by the use of the simple ray-theoretical formulav _CMB=r _c /p (v _CMB=velocity at the CMB;r _c =core radius;p=ray parameter) yields apparent velocity values which differ from the true velocities. Using a dominant period of about 20 sec for calculating theoretical seismograms, we found a linear relation between the apparent velocity and the average velocity in a transition zone at the base of the mantle with fixed velocity on top.The ray parameters determined from long-period earthquake data are found to be 4.540±0.035 and 8.427±0.072 sec/deg for P_diff and S_diff, respectively. These values yield apparent velocities of 13.378±0.103 for P and 7.207±0.062 km/sec for S waves. By means of the theoretical relation between apparent and average velocity and under the assumption of linear variation of velocity with depth, one can invert the apparent velocities into true CMB velocities of 13.736±0.170 and 7.320±0.124 km/sec. These results imply positive velocity gradients at the base of the mantle and hence no significant departures from adiabaticity and homogeneity.Contribution No. 211 of the Geophysical Institute, University of Karlsruhe.     

Significance of Dar-Zarrouk parameters in the exploration of quality affected coastal aquifer systems

The interpreted Earth subsurface resistivity layer parameters of 55 vertical geoelectrical soundings are analyzed over a fan shaped area of 1,700 km² from Pipli-Astrang-Bhramgiri, Orissa, India. In this study, Dar-Zarrouk (D-Z) parameters, namely the longitudinal conductance (S), transverse resistance (T) and longitudinal resistivity (R _s ) are analyzed and we encountered the resistivity regime of the clay layers, saline and fresh water bearing formations. The significance of these parameters in establishing an easily decipherable vision about the occurrence and distribution of fresh and saline water aquifers, while dealing with complicated situations of intermixing of the resistivity ranges of saline and fresh water aquifers has been illustrated. The results show that the Dar-Zarrouk (D-Z) parameters provide a useful and confident solution in delineating the saline and fresh water aquifers. The behavior of the D-Z parameters S, T and R _s , and its patterns in space over large areas with respect to the occurrence of saline water and fresh water aquifer systems in the deltaic coastal aquifer system has been demonstrated.     

Pre-and post-outburst parameters for the components of the symbiotic star V1329 Cyg

We present new UB V observations of the symbiotic nova V 1329 Cyg. Based on all our UB V observations of a uniform system, we redetermined the orbital period of the binary and estimated the magnitudes and luminosities of its components. We show that the pre-outburst visual luminosities of the red giant and the hot star were almost equal and that the rapid irregular photographic variability of the star was caused by the nonstationary behavior of the hot component. The outburst amplitude of the hot component (subdwarf) in 1964 was found to be ～2^m in the V band, which is typical of ordinary symbiotic stars. We estimated the continuum luminosity of the gaseous component that appeared after the outburst. In the V band, it was almost 1^m fainter than the flared hot star. Structurally, the gaseous component is an ionized gaseous disk comparable in size to an M giant.     

Determination of hydraulic parameters of an unconfined alluvial aquifer by the floodwave-response technique

Groundwater constitutes a vital component of the water-resource system. Adequate knowledge of aquifer parameters is of utmost importance for proper groundwater management. In the present study, an attempt has been made to critically analyze the river–aquifer interaction and to explore the practicability and reliability of the floodwave-response technique in estimating the hydraulic parameters of the Konan aquifer, Japan. The analysis of the pertinent hydrologic and hydrogeologic data revealed a strong relationship between the Monobe River stage and the groundwater levels over a major portion of the Konan basin. Inverse modeling, using the floodwave-response model at four sites, yielded high values of hydraulic diffusivity that ranged from 16 to 194 m²/s. However, the overall average aquifer diffusivity was found to be reasonable (0.7–3.5 m²/s). All the selected flood events were not found suitable for determining reasonable values of hydraulic diffusivity at a given site. Using the optimal diffusivities at two sites and the aquifer transmissivity from the pumping tests at these sites, the storage coefficient values were estimated as those of truly confined aquifers. In contrast, reasonable values of storage coefficient were obtained based on the average aquifer diffusivity estimates. The sensitivity analysis of the floodwave-response model indicated that the optimal hydraulic diffusivity is very sensitive to the distance parameters of the model, which necessitate precise measurement of these parameters. It is concluded that a judicious application of the floodwave-response technique is essential, especially in the case of unconfined aquifers.

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Resumen El agua subterránea constituye un componente vital de los sistemas de recursos hídricos. El conocimiento adecuado de los parámetros del acuífero es de suma importancia para el manejo apropiado del agua subterránea. En el presente estudio se ha realizado un intento para analizar críticamente la interacción río-acuífero y explorar la confiabilidad y utilidad de la técnica de respuesta de onda de crecida para estimar los parámetros hidráulicos del acuífero Konan, Japón. El análisis de datos hidrológicos e hidrogeológicos pertinentes muestra una relación fuerte entre el nivel del Río Monobe y los niveles de agua subterránea en gran parte de la cuenca Konan. El modelizado de inversión utilizando el modelo de respuesta de onda de crecida en cuatro sitios generó valores altos de difusividad hidráulica que varían de 16 a 194 m²/s. Sin embargo, se encontró que la difusividad promedio global del acuífero tenía valores razonables (0.7 a 3.5 m²/s). Todos los eventos de crecida seleccionados no fueron encontrados satisfactorios para determinar valores razonables de difusividad hidráulica en un sitio determinado. Utilizando las difusividades óptimas en dos sitios y la transmisividad del acuífero proveniente de pruebas de bombeo en esos sitios se estimaron valores del coeficiente de almacenamiento como los que se obtendrían para acuíferos completamente confinados. En contraste, se obtuvieron valores razonables del coeficiente de almacenamiento basados en los cálculos de difusividades promedio del acuífero. Los análisis de sensitividad del modelo de respuesta de onda de crecida indicaron que la difusividad óptima hidráulica es muy sensitiva a los parámetros de distancia del modelo por lo que se necesitan mediciones precisas de esos parámetros. Se concluye que es esencial una aplicación sensata de la técnica de respuesta de onda de crecida, especialmente en el caso de acuíferos no confinados.

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Resumé Leau souterraine constitue une composante vitale des systèmes de ressource en eau. Une connaissance adéquate des paramètres des aquifères est importante pour une gestion correcte de ces systèmes. Dans cette étude, la démarche consiste à analyser linteraction rivière–aquifère de manière critique et dexplorer la technique permettant destimer les paramètres hydrauliques de laquifère Konan, Japon. Lanalyse pertinente des données hydrologiques et hydrogéologiques révèle une relation forte entre le niveau de la rivière Monobe et les niveaux piézométriques sur une grande partie du bassin de Konan. La modélisation inverse utilisant le modèle de réponse aux vagues de crue sur quatre sites fournit des valeurs de diffusivité comprises entre 16 et 194 m²/s. Néanmoins la valeur moyenne de diffusivité est apparue raisonnable (entre 0.7 et 3.5 m²/s). Tous les évènements de crue nont pas été retenus comme permettant de calculer avec une bonne fiabilité la diffusivité sur un site donné. En utilisant les données optimales de diffusivité provenant de deux sites, et la transmissivité fournie par les essais de pompage, le coefficient demmagasinement a été déterminé et correspond bien à un aquifère confiné. Par contraste, des valeurs raisonnables de coefficient demmagasinement ont été déterminées par estimation de la diffusivité moyenne de laquifère. Lanalyse de sensibilité du modèle de réponse aux vagues de crue indique que la diffusivité hydraulique optimale est très sensible à la distance utilisée dans le modèle, qui nécessite dés lors une mesure précise. En conclusion il est essentiel que ce type dapplication doit tre judicieusement mis en oeuvre, et spécialement dans le cadre daquifères captifs.

     

三峡库区云阳塞坝"平台式"斜坡变形机理分析

以三峡库区云阳塞坝滑坡为例,分析了层状砂泥岩区缓坡平台上崩滑堆积物中因开挖引起变形的机理。研究表明,崩滑堆积物呈蜂窝状分布的富水含水层,因远距离开挖失水而导致的不均匀变形,是地面出现拉裂的主要原因;平台中的公路开挖所诱发的边坡回弹变形仅限于局部范围。这两类变形的发生在时间上或相应的施工期间可能表现为表观的“同步”现象,但不均匀变形随着含水层排水的完成而结束,而开挖所诱发的回弹变形,则可以随着外界条件的变化而不断发展。直至发生滑坡。在空间上,两类变形具有不同的特征,其中,不均匀固结变形的发生以不规则的孤立含水层为中心向外发展,而回弹变形则局限于临空面附近,远离临空面时变形量和变形速率迅速减小。在富含地下水的松散堆积物中进行工程施工时,区分两类变形机理和效应,对于减少滑坡误判,正确进行工程设计,减少工程造价具有重要意义。