Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

Structural architecture of a highly oblique divergent plate boundary segment

The Reykjanes Peninsula in southwest Iceland is a highly oblique spreading segment of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge oriented about 30° from the direction of absolute plate motion. We present a complete and spatially accurate map of fractures for the Reykjanes Peninsula with a level of detail previously unattained. Our map reveals a variability in the pattern of normal, oblique- and strike-slip faults and open fractures which reflects both temporal and spatial strain partitioning within the plate boundary zone. Fracture density varies across the length and width of the peninsula, with density maxima at the ends and at the northern margin of the zone of volcanic activity. Fractures with similar strike cluster into distinct structural domains which can be related to patterns of faulting predicted for oblique extension and to their spatial distribution with respect to volcanic fissure swarms. Additional structural complexity on the Reykjanes Peninsula can be reconciled with magmatic periodicity and associated temporal strain partitioning implied by GPS data, as well as locally perturbed stress fields. Individual faults show variable slip histories, indicating that they may be active during both magmatic and amagmatic periods associated with different strain fields.     

A comparative error analysis of manual versus automated methods of data acquisition for algebraic strain estimation

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the algebraic strain estimation algorithm of Shimamoto and Ikeda [Shimamoto, T., Ikeda, Y., 1976. A simple algebraic method for strain estimation from deformed eillipsoidal objects: 1. Basic theory. Tectonophysics 36, 315–337]. It is argued that the error in their strain estimation procedure can be quantified using an expected discrepancy measure. An analysis of this measure demonstrates that the error is inversely proportional to the number of clasts used. The paper also examines the role of measurement error, in particular that incurred under (i) a moment based and (ii) manual data acquisition methods. Detailed analysis of these two acquisition methods shows that in both cases, the effect of measurement error on the expected discrepancy is small relative to the effect of the sample size (number of objects). Given their relative speed advantage, this result favours the use of automated measurement methods even if they incur more measurement error on individual objects. Validation of these results is carried out by means of a simulation study, as well as by reference to studies appearing in previous literature. The results are also applied to obtain an upper bound on the error of strain estimation for various studies published in the literature on strain analysis.     

Improved reliability in the interpretation of geochemical measurements by the quantification of uncertainty from sampling

All geochemical measurements require the taking of field samples, but the uncertainty that this process causes is often ignored when assessing the reliability of the interpretation, of the geochemistry or the health implications. Recently devised methods for the estimation, optimisation and reduction of this uncertainty have been evaluated by their application to the investigation of contaminated land. Uncertainty of measurement caused by primary sampling has been estimated for a range of six different contaminated land site investigations, using an increasingly recognized procedure. These site investigations were selected to reflect a wide range of different sizes, contaminants （organic and metals）, previous land uses （e.g. tin mining, railway sidings and gas works）, intended future use （housing to nature reserves） and routinely applied sampling methods. The results showed that the uncertainty on measurements was substantial, ranging from 25% to 186% of the concentration values at the different sites. Sampling was identified as the dominant source of the uncertainty （〉70% of measurement uncertainty） in most cases. The fitness-for-purpose of the measurements was judged using the optimized contaminated land investigation （OCLI） method. This identifies the optimal level of uncertainty that reduces to overall financial loss caused by the measurement procedures and the misclassification of the contamination, caused by the uncertainty. Generally the uncertainty of the actual measurements made in these different site investigations was found to be sub-optimal, and too large by a factor of approximately two. The uncertainty is usually limited by the sampling, but this can be reduced by increasing the sample mass by a factor of 4 （predicted by sampling theory）. It is concluded that knowing the value of the uncertainty enables the interpretation to be made more reliable, and that sampling is the main factor limiting most investigations. This new approach quantifies this problem for the first time, and allows sampling procedures to be critically evaluated, and modified, to improve the reliability of the geochemical assessment.     

Strain softening of K0-consolidated Changi sand under plane-strain conditions

Experimental results are presented in this paper to study the strain softening behaviour of a marine dredged sand under plane-strain conditions. K₀ consolidated drained and undrained tests were conducted using a new plane-strain apparatus to characterize the strain softening behaviour of the sand under plane-strain conditions. For medium dense specimens, strain softening and shear bands were observed to occur under both drained and undrained conditions. For very loose specimens, no shear bands were observed and critical states were reached within the homogeneous deformation region in both drained and undrained tests. Strain softening was observed to occur at small strain for very loose specimens under undrained conditions. Two types of strain softening, the homogenous softening and banding softening, were identified and the conditions for strain softening were established. The results obtained from this study were compared with the studies by Han and Vardoulakis (Géotechnique 41(1):49–78, 1991), Finno et al. (J Geotech Eng ASCE 122(6):462–473, 1996, Géotechnique 47(1):149–165, 1997) and Mokni and Desrues (Mech Cohes-Frict Mat 4:419–441, 1998).     

Comparison of magnetic parameters with vehicular Br levels in urban roadside soils

Chemical methods are generally chosen to monitor soil pollution but magnetic measurements proved to yield additional information at low cost and less time consumption. In this investigation, the novel use of rapid and non-destructive magnetic measurements to characterize Br levels in Xuzhou (China) urban roadside soils was reported. X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) was used to quantify Br in the soil samples. Data from 21 roadside soil samples confirm Br contamination, with a mean level of 4.36 mg kg⁻¹ and a range of 2.4–8.7 mg kg⁻¹. These values are higher than that of unpolluted soils in Xuzhou that averages 1.1 mg kg⁻¹. Hierarchical clustering analysis shows Br in Xuzhou roadside soils is mainly from road traffic. Clear correlations between Br levels and simple magnetic parameters [mass specific susceptibility (χ _LF), susceptibility of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (χ _ARM), saturation isothermal remanence (SIRM)] are observed. The present study shows that these three magnetic parameters can be used as a proxy for Br levels in Xuzhou urban roadside soils.     

圆形标志中心子像素定位方法的研究与实现

采用回光反射材料制作圆形回光反射标志，经摄影后得到标志的“准二值影像”；对标志的椭圆影像进行亚像素边缘提取，经最小二乘椭圆拟合后得到标志中心的子像素级位置。试验表明，可以达到0．02像素的定位精度。     

中国大陆科学钻探主孔声发射法现今地应力状态的确定

对中国大陆科学钻探主孔的岩心进行了声发射测量,确定了301～1531m深度的最大主应力。并与钻孔崩落法(深度1269～1655m)测量结果进行了对比,结果表明,声发射测量所得测值基本上落在钻孔崩落法测值的趋势线上,两种方法所得结果一致,说明测量结果可信。测量结果表明科学钻探主孔地应力大小随深度增加,在浅部301m最大主应力为13.4MPa,在深部1655m为55.2MPa。随深度的增加率为0.0279MPa/m。最大主应力方向为N54°±3.3°E,且方向不随深度变化。     

贵州大方县公鸡山地裂缝特征成因及防治

文章通过对贵州省大方县以公鸡山地裂隙实地调查，认为地裂隙的形成主要与公鸡山一带地下采煤有关。即采煤虚脱，沿先存构造断裂拉张而成。同时叙述了地裂缝特征及危害，并提出防灾减灾措施。