Resolving physically and biologically driven suspended particulate matter dynamics in a tidal basin with a distribution-based model

Understanding suspended particulate matter (SPM) dynamics in coastal waters is crucial to assess changes in coastal sediment budgets and biogeochemical fluxes. SPM dynamics are subject to various physical and biological factors and processes such as, e.g. tidal currents and aggregation which can be enhanced by extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) that are produced by algae and bacteria. It is still unclear how the different factors and processes interact and together determine SPM dynamics. To unravel the interacting processes and factors, we propose a new distribution-based modeling approach. Based on the derivation of explicit equations for size distribution characteristics of SPM such as the average radius, we derived a model of reduced complexity characterized by low initialization and parameterization effort as well as low computational cost. The proposed 0D model includes the processes of aggregation and fragmentation due to shear, aggregation due to differential settling, deposition, resuspension and tidal exchange, and describes the evolution of the SPM concentration in the water column linked by the settling velocity to the change of the mass average radius of the aggregate distribution. A systematic parameter variation for critical bottom shear stress of erosion, the size of resuspended aggregates, the fractal dimension, the collision efficiency, and the aggregate strength has been performed and compared to observations in the back-barrier basin of Spiekeroog Island in the German Wadden Sea. This analysis confirms the hypothesis that in winter biological influences on SPM dynamics are smaller compared to summer. This is mainly reflected by a significant shift in the various parameters. We hence conclude that biological control mechanisms have a much more quantitative relevance for SPM dynamics than currently represented by state-of-the-art SPM transport models.     

Developing a conceptual model of marine farming in New Zealand

Survey and Geographic Information System (GIS) data analysis describes the relative influence of biophysical and human variables on site choices made by marine farmers in New Zealand. Community conflicts have grown in importance in determining farm location and different government planning strategies leave distinct signature patterns. Recent legislation empowers local governments to choose among three strategies for future regional aquaculture development. This paper suggests each strategy could result in different spatial outcomes. Simulation modelling of the type described here can provide a better understanding of farmer responses to management approaches and the range of futures that could result from planning choices made today.     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.     

Stochastic bivariate time series models of waves in the North Sea and their application in simulation-based design

In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marine vessels and structures. Markov, VAR and VARMA wave models, producing independent long-term time series of significant wave height (H_s) and spectral peak period (T_p), is presented as possible solutions to this problem. The models are tested and compared by addressing how the models affect interpretation of design concepts and the ability to replicate statistical and physical characteristics of the wave process. Our results show that the VAR and VARMA models perform sufficiently in describing design performance, but does not capture the physical process fully. The Markov model is found to perform worst of the tested models in the applied tests, especially for measures covering several consecutive sea states.     

A rational approach to seepage flow effects on bottom friction beneath random waves

The bottom friction beneath random waves is predicted taking into account the effect of seepage flow. This is achieved by using wave friction factors for rough turbulent, smooth turbulent and laminar flow valid for regular waves together with a modified Shields parameter which includes the effect of seepage flow. Examples using data typical to field conditions are included to illustrate the approach. The analytical results can be used to make assessment of seepage effects on the bottom friction based on available wave statistics. Generally, it is recommended that a stochastic approach should be used rather than using the rms values in an otherwise deterministic approach.     

Cenozoic folding in the Cumuruxatiba basin,Brazil: An approach to the deformation trigger by the Abrolhos magmatism

The Cumuruxatiba basin is located in the central portion of the eastern Brazilian margin surrounded by Cenozoic magmatic highs that belong to the Abrolhos Magmatic Complex. This basin was formed by rifting, in the Neocomian followed by thermal subsidence during late Cretaceous like other basins along the Eastern Brazilian margin. In the Cenozoic, the Abrolhos magmatism took place as sills and dykes intruded the sedimentary section, primarily during the Paleogene. In that time, there was a strong NS contractional deformation in the basin represented by folds related to reverse faults coeval with Abrolhos magmatism activity. The structural restorations of regional 2D seismic sections revealed that most of the contractional deformation was concentrated at the beginning of the Cenozoic with maximum peak at the Eocene (up to 33% of total shortening and rate of 6 km/Ma). The Post-Eocene period was marked by a decrease in the strain rate that continues to the present day (around 4 km/Ma to less than 1). 3D structural modelling exhibited a major, well-developed E–W to NE–SW fold belt that accommodated most of the contractional Cenozoic deformation between Royal Charlotte and Sulphur Minerva magmatic highs. Volcanic eruptions and magmatic flows from the Abrolhos complex resulted in differential overburden on edge of the basin, acting as a trigger for halokinesis and the subsequent formation of fault-related folds. In general, such structures were developed close to adjacent magmatic highs, commonly exhibiting vergence towards the centre of the basin. Some magmatic features formed coeval with Cenozoic syn-deformation sediments clearly indicate that Abrolhos magmatism activity and contractional deformation development were associated. The study of the thickness variation of the syn-deformation section in relation to fault-related folds on deformation maps and maximum strain diagrams revealed that most folds were activated and re-activated several times during the Cenozoic without a systematic kinematic pattern. This lack of systematic deformation might be related to the variation of the magmatic pulse activity of adjacent magmatic highs resulting in a complex interference pattern of Cenozoic folds. These structural interpretations of the timing of fault-related folds that are potential Cenozoic traps in the Cumuruxatiba basin play a fundamental role in petroleum systems and exploration of low-risk hydrocarbon prospects.     

An economic valuation of the Namibian recreational shore-angling fishery

A roving creel survey of recreational shore-anglers in Namibia was used to determine catch and effort of line-fishing. A stratified sample of 240 anglers was surveyed to determine expenditures. Results showed that, between October 1996 and September 1997, some 8 800 anglers spent around 173 000 days angling and had direct expenditures of N$29.7 million. In all, 93% of angling took place in the West Coast Recreational Area. Some 44% of anglers were foreign visitors who contributed 55% of the expenditures. Value added to gross national income within the shore-angling fishery was N$14 million, equivalent to 3.6% of the value of the whole fisheries sector. The expenditures ultimately amounted (through a multiplier) to a gross national income of N$3 069 per angler, or N$27 million in aggregate. These amounts could be sustainable if policies to reduce fish mortality without affecting angler numbers are implemented.     

长江口年代际冲淤演变趋势预测与应对策略

受流域来水来沙条件变化及河口大型工程建设的综合影响,长江口呈现新的冲淤格局,为预测未来演变趋势,本研究基于前期研究中建立的长江口年代际冲淤演变预测模型(Delft3D),未来情景考虑不同来沙量条件和相对海平面上升速率。预测结果表明,到2035年长江口整体以冲刷为主,口内河段主槽和浅滩边缘冲刷较明显,仅高滩局部淤积;到2050年口内河段保持净冲刷状态,拦门沙地区在现状来沙量条件下略有淤积,但在极端低来沙量条件下转变为净冲刷状态,海平面上升对拦门沙地区冲刷具有一定抵消作用,但不会使冲淤状态产生本质改变。本研究分析认为,长江口局部区域未来冲淤趋势可能对河口综合治理与保护产生不利影响,针对新格局条件下的滩槽河势稳定、重要洲滩保护、重大工程安全评估、冲刷致灾研判以及海堤防护标准再评估等方面提出了对策建议,可为新时期长江口综合治理与可持续发展提供参考。     

Risk identification and perception in the fisheries sector: Comparisons between the Faroes,Greece, Iceland and UK

This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control.     

Probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution near segmented shore-parallel breakwaters

This paper presents a new framework for probabilistic modelling of long-term beach evolution in the vicinity of detached breakwaters. The study focuses on the key physical processes contributing to beach variability over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Based on a one-line model, the framework is enhanced with sophisticated solutions for beach-wave-structure interaction, diffraction together with a treatment of varying tide level. The sediment transport rate is calibrated at regional and local levels using data from bespoke field campaigns and site-specific coefficients are proposed. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted for long-term shoreline simulation under a sequence of time varying sequence of waves, currents and tidal levels. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation give an insight into the statistical characteristics of beach behaviour within the defence system. In particular, regions within the scheme that are relatively stable and those that exhibit greater natural fluctuations are identified.