Ground water contaminant transport by nondivergence-free, unsteady and nonstationary velocity fields

Pore flow velocity is assumed to be a nondivergence-free, unsteady, and nonstationary random function of space and time for ground water contaminant transport in a heterogeneous medium. The laboratory-scale stochastic contaminant transport equation is up scaled to field scale by taking the ensemble average of the equation by using the cumulant expansion method. A new velocity correction, which is a function of mean pore flow velocity divergence, is obtained due to strict second order cumulant expansion (without omitting any term after the expansion). The field scale transport equations under the divergence-free pore flow velocity field assumption are also derived by simplifying the nondivergence-free field scale equation. The significance of the new velocity correction term is investigated on a two dimensional transport problem driven by a density dependent flow.     

Seismic Displacement of Gravity Walls by a Two-body Model

Gravity walls retaining dry soil are modeled as a system of two bodies: (a) the gravity wall that slides along the wall-foundation soil boundary and (b) the critical soil wedge in the soil behind the wall. The strength of the system is defined by both the frictional and the cohesional components of resistance. The angle of the prism of the critical soil wedge behind the wall is obtained using the limit equilibrium method. The model accounts for changes in the geometry of the backfill soil behind the wall by considering the displacements at the end of each time step under limit equilibrium. The model shows that the standard (single) block model is over-conservative for the extreme case of critical-to-applied-seismic acceleration ratios less than about 0.30, but works well for cases where this ratio ranges between 0.5 and 0.8. The model is applied to predict the seismic displacement of gravity walls (a) tested in the shaking-table and (b) studied numerically by elaborate elasto–plastic analyses.     

A stochastic model of surface contaminant releases to support assessment of site contamination at a former industrial site

An industrial site is usually contaminated by accidental (and occasionally intentional) releases of pollutants to the environment from various operations carried out on that site. Consequently, the pattern of contamination created during the life of the site depends in part, at least, on the pattern of operations. Thus, the assessment of the pattern of contamination over the site should be improved: if it is possible to identify the pattern of operations on the site, the duration of the different activities and the perceived likelihood of releases from the different operations. A stochastic model has been developed that can be used to simulate alternative realizations of contaminant releases (duration, extent and timing). The model employs release zones associated with particular activities or groups of activities on the site and the areas of each of the zones may be independent or overlapping. The period of activity in each zone is obtained from the site records, while the likelihood and extent of contamination in each zone is inferred from an analysis of the contamination data obtained by point sampling. The form of the model, the method of inference of the model parameter values from the site data and the application of the model to the study site are presented. The release model has been developed as part of a suite of stochastic models for site ground contamination analysis. The stochastic soil and transport models and the application of the integrated modelling system are described in separate papers.     

Earthquake catalogues and modelling strategies. A new testing procedure for the comparison between competing models

In this paper we consider the procedures that, on the basis of an earthquake catalogue, yield the magnitude distribution function F _M (F _M generators). In particular, our attention is focused on the F _M generators that are currently used in the frame of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis at a site. From an engineering point of view, the behaviour of F _M in the range of strong earthquakes is of crucial importance. On the other hand, in general, the statistical validation of F _M in that range is not feasible because of an insufficient number of strong earthquakes in available catalogues.Our investigation is limited to the problem of the comparison between competing F _M generators. We show that a simple empirical F _M generator (called the CFP generator) can be more reliable than generators based on mathematical models. The numerical experiments that support this statement regards two test-sites and two mathematical models of magnitude distribution, namely the truncated-exponential and the characteristic-type models.The main conclusion is the suggestion of a test (called the CFP-test) that can be summarized as follows. Let X be a site for which, with current criteria, a specific F _M ^X generator based on a mathematical model has been selected. At this point, following the comparison approach described in the paper, the F _M ^X generator is compared with the empirical CFP generator. It can happen (actually it happens in many of our numerical experiments) that this test indicates the CFP generator as more reliable than the selected F _M ^X generator.     

Stochastic generation of hourly rainstorm events

Occurrence of rainstorm events can be characterized by the number of events, storm duration, rainfall depth, inter-event time and temporal variation of rainfall within a rainstorm event. This paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model considering correlated non-normal random rainstorm characteristics, as well as dependence of various rainstorm patterns on rainfall depth, duration, and season. The proposed model was verified by comparing the derived rainfall depth–duration–frequency relations from the simulated rainfall sequences with those from observed annual maximum rainfalls based on the hourly rainfall data at the Hong Kong Observatory over the period of 1884–1990. Through numerical experiments, the proposed model was found to be capable of capturing the essential statistical features of rainstorm characteristics and those of annual extreme rainstorm events according to the available data.     

Comparison of the spatial distribution of ground motion between main shocks and strong aftershocks

Using the ground motion attenuation relation, we calculated and compared the effective peak acceleration (EPA) generated by main shocks and their strong aftershocks of 21 earthquake sequences with MS≥7 occurred in Chinese mainland and offing of China during 1966~2002. The result shows that EPA of strong aftershocks usually exceed that of main shock for 76.2% earthquake sequences and EPA of more than 50% strong aftershocks are greatly lar-ger than that of main shocks in large area, which suggests that it is necessary to take damage produced by strong aftershock into account in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the seismic design.     

昆明机场红土地层地下结构抗震模拟研究

昆明机场残积红土既是区域内重要的土地资源,更是各类工程建设的建筑地基,由于机场及临近区域内小江地震活动断裂带和普渡河断裂带地震活动频繁,使研究区处于较不稳定状态。本文采用MIDAS GTS有限元数值分析软件,利用动三轴试验所得出的结果,分别对昆明长水国际机场玄武岩残积红土、砂页岩残积红土地层下典型的地下结构进行了抗震模拟研究。所获得的研究成果,对红土分布区城市及村镇房屋建筑地基和地下空间结构抗震安全稳定性评价具有一定的指导意义和实用价值。     

Measurements of the direction of the solar wind using interplanetary scintillation

EISCAT observations of the interplanetary scintillation of a single source were made over an extended period of time, during which the orientation of the baselines between the two observing sites changed significantly. Assuming that maximum correlation between the scintillations observed at the two sites occurs when the projected baseline is parallel to the direction of plasma flow, this technique can be used to make a unique determination of the direction of the solar wind. In the past it has usually been assumed that the plasma flow is radial, but measurements of eleven sources using this technique have indicated conclusively that in at least six cases observed at mid or high heliocentric latitude there is a significant non-radial component directed in four cases towards the heliocentric equator and in two cases towards the pole.     

A statistical study of field-aligned electron beams associated with ion conies events

A statistical study of field-aligned electron beams associated with upflowing ion conics is presented from Exos-D (Akebono) observations below 10 000 km. The electron beams are narrowly collimated along the field line and generally have energies of several tens of eV. They are divided in the analysis into three types: upflowing, downflowing, and counterstreaming. All the types of electron beams are almost equivalent in their energy and pitch angle characteristics and their association rate with upflowing ion events. About 50% of ion conies are found to be coincident with field-aligned electron beams. There is also a correlation in energy between the field-aligned electrons and ion conics. These show that the association is not a mere coincidence but rather that the field-aligned acceleration of electrons is related to the perpendicular energization of ions. The association rate of upflowing electrons is high on the nightside, while that of downflowing electrons is high on the dayside. The association rate of downflowing electrons is high at low altitudes, and the rates of the three types of electron beams become equivalent at high altitudes. Data indicate that the height of the electron acceleration region is lower on the nightside. It is suggested that the average height of the electron acceleration region is around the satellite apogee (–10000 km), and the average thickness of the region is about thousands km.     

The Deutsch field gamma-ray pulsar – II. Application of the model

A new model for gamma-ray pulsars presented by Higgins & Henriksen is applied to the cases of the seven known gamma-ray pulsars. Those pulsars that are not presently observed in gamma-rays, but are candidates for observation by the next generation of gamma-ray telescopes, are discussed. The case of millisecond pulsars is discussed, and it is shown that these objects should radiate at detectable levels, in opposition to the predictions of other gamma-ray pulsar models.