江西湖口隧道工程地质条件评价

论述了江西湖口隧道场区的地层岩性条件。根据断层、层面、节理结构面的组合赤平投影图,判定了隧道西洞口与东洞口自然斜坡的稳定性,以及隧道西洞口、东洞口SW、东洞口NE路堑坡的稳定性。F2、F2′、F3断层横切洞体,断层与洞体交汇处及软岩分布区,围岩不稳定,易出现掉块及小塌方。提出了短开挖、弱爆破、强支护、先排水隧道的施工方案。     

The accountability imperative for quantifying the uncertainty of emission forecasts: evidence from Mexico

Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to which forecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify the uncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of GHG emissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of GHG emissions for Mexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that, because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes. We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimum transparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of the forecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to derive climate change mitigation targets.

POLICY INSIGHTS

• No minimum transparency and quality standards exist to guide the development of GHG emission scenario forecasts, not even when these forecasts are used to set national climate change mitigation targets.

• No accountability mechanisms appear to be in place at the national level to ensure that national governments rely on scientifically sound processes to develop GHG emission scenarios.

• Using probabilistic forecasts to underpin emission reduction targets represents a scientifically sound option for reflecting in the target the uncertainty to which those forecasts are subject, thus increasing the validity of the target.

• Setting up minimum transparency and quality standards, and holding governments accountable for their choice of forecasting methods could lead to more robust emission reduction targets nationally and, by extension, internationally.

     

An improved Monte Carlo simulation method for discontinuity orientations based on Fisher distribution and its program implementation

Fisher distribution is the most commonly used probability density function for discontinuity orientations. Based on Fisher distribution, Monte Carlo simulation method for discontinuity orientations was reviewed and improved. Those orientations extending beyond the edge of an upper hemisphere projection (OEBEUHP) often have an important influence on both the mean orientation and Fisher constant K, thus affecting simulation results. The detailed algorithms for identifying and adjusting those OEBEUHP were developed in this paper. Based on the improved method, a program for generating discontinuity orientations and plotting their stereographic projection maps, named as MCSDO, was developed. Due to the aforementioned adjustment, the generated orientations by MCSDO are close to the original discontinuity orientations, which were mapped in field, and satisfactory. Only the original orientations and target number of generated orientations need to be input. By running the program we can directly obtain the follows: orientations of generated discontinuities, mean orientations of both original and generated discontinuities, Fisher constant K of both original and generated discontinuities, and stereographic projection maps of both original and generated discontinuities. MCSDO is a freeware designed for researchers and practicing engineers, and can be easily mastered with a little computer knowledge.     

巫溪南门湾危岩体稳定性分区研究

危岩体是影响人类生命财产安全与工程活动的自然地质灾害之一.对危岩体的勘察、稳定性评价与防治是地质灾害防治的研究难题.受危岩体复杂地质特征影响,南门湾危岩体由20余个危岩块体组成,其防治设计存在一定工程风险.本文通过分析岩体裂隙系统发育状况,在W6危岩单体稳定性研究的基础上,建立了赤平投影法评价危岩体稳定性的判断标准与南...     

露天矿山边坡破坏模式与稳定性的综合评价

以四川峨胜石灰石露天矿山为研究对象,在对矿山进行工程地质分区的基础上,采用赤平投影方法分析了各区工作台阶边坡、终了台阶边坡的破坏模式,并采用数值模拟方法分析了各区终了大边坡的破坏模式,在此基础上基于FLAC3D强度折减法对各区边坡的稳定性进行了综合评价。结果表明：①受结构面控制,工作台阶边坡与终了台阶边坡存在楔形体破坏、崩塌掉块、顺层滑移3种破坏模式;②受岩层控制,终了大边坡存在顺层滑移、滑移-拉裂、蠕滑-压致拉裂、塑流-拉裂4种破坏模式;③本研究中,顺向坡的二维模型稳定性系数大于三维模型,斜交坡三维模型稳定性系数大于二维模型,比值平均值为0.83。     

How the performance of hydrological models relates to credibility of projections under climate change

Two approaches can be distinguished in studies of climate change impacts on water resources when accounting for issues related to impact model performance: (1) using a multi-model ensemble disregarding model performance, and (2) using models after their evaluation and considering model performance. We discuss the implications of both approaches in terms of credibility of simulated hydrological indicators for climate change adaptation. For that, we discuss and confirm the hypothesis that a good performance of hydrological models in the historical period increases confidence in projected impacts under climate change, and decreases uncertainty of projections related to hydrological models. Based on this, we find the second approach more trustworthy and recommend using it for impact assessment, especially if results are intended to support adaptation strategies. Guidelines for evaluation of global- and basin-scale models in the historical period, as well as criteria for model rejection from an ensemble as an outlier, are also suggested.     

北京某建筑边坡场地工程地质条件与坡体稳定性评价

边坡的稳定性对工程建设有重要影响, 为了保障建筑场地的安全, 本文对北京某建筑边坡场地工程地质条件进行了详细调查和论述, 并针对场地内的6个典型坡体, 分别采用赤平投影法和极限平衡法对边坡的稳定性进行了综合评价, 其中极限平衡法采用了复杂平面滑动和三维楔形体分析模型。分析结果表明, 该工程场区工程地质条件较为简单, 岩体结构主要为层状结构, 工程场区内所涉及的6个边坡稳定性均较好, 但由于区内有一条断裂穿过, 对边坡2的稳定性有一定的影响。针对边坡的稳定性和建筑场地的高效可用性, 建议采用放坡护面+坡脚挡墙支护等方式进行防护。     

SOFTWARE REVIEWS

Electromap World Atlas , Version 1.1. Interactive Population Statistical System , Version 1.0. Jerry W. Wicks and Jose Luiz Pereira de Almeida MATHCAD , Version 2.5. Memory Mate. Micro DEM +, Version 5.21. Peter Guth NCSS – Number Cruncher Statistical System , Version 5.02. Dr. Jerry L. Hintze     

Statistical Projections of Ocean Climate Indices off Newfoundland and Labrador

ABSTRACT

Present global climate models (GCMs) are unable to provide reliable projections of physical oceanographic properties on the continental shelf off Newfoundland and Labrador. Here we first establish linear statistical relationships between oceanographic properties and coastal air temperature based on historical observations. We then use these relationships to project future states of oceanographic conditions under different emission scenarios, based on projected coastal air temperatures from global (Canadian Earth System Model, version 2 (CanESM2), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model, version 2M (GFDL-ESM2M)) and regional (Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM)) climate models. Estimates based on CanESM2 agree reasonably well with observed trends, but the trends based on two other models result in substantial underestimates. Projected trends are closer to observations under a high emission scenario than under median-level emission scenarios. Over the next 50 years, the increases in projected sea surface temperature off eastern Newfoundland (Station 27) range from 0.4° to 2.2°C. The increases in bottom ocean temperature over the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelves range from 0.4° to 2.1°C. The area of the cold intermediate layer (<0°C) on the Flemish Cap (47°N) section is projected to decrease by 9–35% of the 1981–2010 average. The decline in sea-ice extent off Newfoundland and Labrador ranges from 20 to 77% of the average (0.4–1.5?×?10⁵?km²), and the reduction in the number of icebergs at 48°N off Newfoundland ranges from 30% to nearly 100% of the norm at this latitude. Despite differences among the models and scenarios, statistical projections indicate that conditions in this region will reach or exceed their maxima (sea surface temperature, bottom ocean temperature) and reach or fall below their minima (sea-ice extent, number of icebergs) that were observed during the course of monitoring activities over the past 30–60 years, possibly as early as 2040. We note, however, that the statistical relationships based on historical data may not hold in the future because of the changing influence of input from Arctic waters and because of large uncertainties in projected air temperatures from GCMs.     

Evidence for magma mixing in the Mariana arc system

Volcanoes of the Mariana arc system produce magmas that belong to several liquid lines of descent and that originated from several different primary magmas. Despite differences in parental magmas, phenocryst assemblages are very similar throughout the arc. The different liquid lines of descent are attributed to differences in degree of silica saturation of the primary liquids and in the processes of magmatic evolution (fractional crystallization vs magma mixing). Pseudoternary projections of volcanic rocks from several arc volcanoes are used to show differences between different magmatic suites. In most of the arc, parental liquids were Ol- and Hy-normative basalts that crystallized olivine, augite, and plagioclase (± iron-titanium oxide) and then plagioclase and two pyroxenes, apparently at low pressure. Eruptive rocks follow subparallel liquid lines of descent on element–element diagrams and on pseudoternary projections. Magmas at North Hiyoshi are Ne-normative and have a liquid line of descent along the thermal divide due to precipitation of olivine, augite, and plagioclase. Derived liquids are large ion lithophile element (LILE)-rich. Magmas at other Hiyoshi seamounts included an alkaline component but had more complex evolution. Those at Central Hiyoshi formed by a process dominated by mixing alkaline and subalkaline magmas, whereas those at other Hiyoshi seamounts evolved by combined magma mixing and fractional crystallization. Influence of the alkaline component wanes as one goes south from North Hiyoshi. Alkaline and subalkaline magmas were also mixed to produce magmas erupted at the Kasuga seamounts that are behind the arc front. The alkaline magmas at both Hiyoshi and Kasuga seamounts had different sources from those of the subalkaline magmas at those sites as indicated by trace element ratios and by _Nd.