基于EM及熵值理论的区域经济与影响因素研究

基于EM算法的聚类方法属于软聚类范畴,在应用中具有较高的灵活性,而熵值理论可以较好地反映出分子对系统凝聚状态的影响度。以河南省为例应用EM聚类方法分析了各地市的经济发展水平,运用熵值理论对影响经济发展的各因素进行了评价,并计算得出各因素的影响度,以此探讨河南省各地市经济发展不平衡的特点和原因,并为经济的全面协调发展提供了对策和思路。     

Fractal Dimension of the 1999 Chamoli Earthquake from Aftershock Studies in Garhwal Himalaya

The Aftershock sequence of Chamoli earthquake (M _w 6.4) of 29 March 1999 is analyzed to study the fractal structure in space, time and magnitude distribution. The b value is found to be 0.63 less than which is usually observed worldwide and in the Himalayas. This indicates that the numbers of smaller earthquakes are relatively less than the larger ones. The spatial correlation is 1.64, indicating that events are approaching a two-dimensional region meaning that the aftershocks are uniformly distributed along the trend of the aftershock zone. Temporal correlation is 0.86 for aftershocks of M 1, indicating a nearly continuous aftershock activity. However, it is 0.5 for aftershocks of M 1.75, indicating a non continuous aftershock activity. From the assessment of slip on different faults it is inferred that 70% displacement is accommodated on the primary fault and the remainder on secondary faults.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for a problematic segment of the natural gas pipeline,Hendek (Turkey)

A segment of natural gas pipeline was damaged due to landsliding near Hendek. Re-routing of the pipeline is planned, but it requires the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map. In this study, the statistical index (Wi) and weighting factor (Wf) methods have been used with GIS to prepare a landslide susceptibility map of the problematic segment of the pipeline. For this purpose, thematic layers including landslide inventory, lithology, slope, aspect, elevation, land use/land cover, distance to stream, and drainage density were used. In the study area, landslides occur in the unconsolidated to semi-consolidated clayey unit and regolith. The Wf method gives better results than the Wi method. Lithology is found to be the most important aspect in the study area. Based on the findings obtained in this study, the unconsolidated to semi-consolidated clayey unit and alluvium should be avoided during re-routing. Agricultural activities should not be allowed in the close vicinity of the pipeline.     

Global multiresolution models of surface wave propagation: comparing equivalently regularized Born and ray theoretical solutions

I invert a large set of teleseismic phase-anomaly observations, to derive tomographic maps of fundamental-mode surface wave phase velocity, first via ray theory, then accounting for finite-frequency effects through scattering theory, in the far-field approximation and neglecting mode coupling. I make use of a multiple-resolution pixel parametrization which, in the assumption of sufficient data coverage, should be adequate to represent strongly oscillatory Fréchet kernels. The parametrization is finer over North America, a region particularly well covered by the data. For each surface-wave mode where phase-anomaly observations are available, I derive a wide spectrum of plausible, differently damped solutions; I then conduct a trade-off analysis, and select as optimal solution model the one associated with the point of maximum curvature on the trade-off curve. I repeat this exercise in both theoretical frameworks, to find that selected scattering and ray theoretical phase-velocity maps are coincident in pattern, and differ only slightly in amplitude.     

基于灰色聚类法的鞍山城区岩溶塌陷危险性区划

利用灰色聚类方法对鞍山城区岩溶塌陷危险性进行区划。首先在对鞍山城区钻孔资料深入分析的基础上,生成了13幅单因子图,为进行岩溶塌陷的危险性区划提供数据支持。为了科学准确地评估各因子对鞍山岩溶塌陷的影响,采用AHP法来确定危险性区划中的聚类权值。最后根据1万个栅格单元的评价结果,将鞍山城区依据岩溶塌陷危险性程度划分为1级、2级、3级、4级危险区以及无危险区共5个区域。经检验和分析,区划结果与实际情况较为吻合,表明灰色聚类法应用于鞍山城区岩溶塌陷危险性区划中是可行的。同时,区划结果也为鞍山市的建设规划提供了重要的地质依据。     

支持向量机及其在地震预报中的应用前景

统计学习理论(SLT)是研究小样本情况下机器学习规律的理论。支持向量机(SVM)基于统计学习理论,可以处理高度非线性分类和回归等问题,不但较好地解决了小样本、过学习、高维数、局部最小等实际难题,而且具有很强的泛化(预测)能力。本文介绍了支持向量机的分类、回归方法,分析了这一方法的特点,讨论了该方法在地震预报中的应用前景。     

A stochastic model for 3-dimensional flow patterns in infiltration experiments

Modelling the 3-dimensional water flux at field scale is important for the design and the analysis of dye tracer experiments. Furthermore, it enables the estimation of the risk to groundwater by pollutants, and the visualisation and classification of flux patterns. A stochastic model is presented that allows for the modelling of a wide range of flow patterns in soils as they appear in dye tracer experiments. The leading idea is that infiltrating water runs along paths, not necessarily preferential ones, and water spreads into the soil uniformly from the paths into the matrix. The model is essentially based on a Poisson point process and three independent random fields. The point process defines the starting points of the paths at the surface. The values of two random fields determine the course of the paths. The third random field governs the depth of the infiltration front. As an extension of the model, we present two simulated examples for stratified soils.     

The relationship of sediment texture with coastal environments along the Kuala Terengganu Coast, Malaysia

The subtidal sediments of four coastal environments (beach, berm, surf zone and nearshore sea floor) of Kuala Terengganu have been studied in terms of their textural characteristics and depositional process. Sampling and statistical analyses of the grain size distributions of beach, surf zone and shallow sea-floor sediments at various locations along the coastline show that they varied in their mean grain size as well as values of sorting and skewness. The statistical parameters of grain size distributions thus allowed recognition of distinct sub-environments. The size distribution of such sediments suggests that the various processes that are responsible for their transportation and deposition are wave, current and wind action. The different energy conditions and the morphology of each coastal environment seem to be reflected in the characteristics of the sediments in each environment.     

Industry Clusters and Sydney's ITT Sector: northern Sydney as ‘Australia's Silicon Valley’?

This paper examines the claim that the North Ryde–North Sydney arc is Australia's ‘Silicon Valley’, seeking firstly to identify the empirical validities behind the claim, and secondly to ask how the documented patterns might be explained. The paper evidences the fact that this area indeed provides the pre-eminent site for Australia's information technology and telecommunications (ITT) sector. However, examination of this industry suggests that its expansion in Sydney has been motivated primarily by the increasing centrality of advanced producer services within the high-order business sector. It is Sydney's attributes for multinational business, as opposed to the propulsive dynamics of local clustering per se, which appears to explain the spatial concentration of these activities. Thus, it is the urbanisation economies of Sydney more than the localisation economies of the ITT sector which account for the growth of this sector in the city. Nevertheless, localisation economies are sporadically significant, suggesting that Sydney's ITT sector is to a certain extent a hybrid product of the two types of economies.     

全球与地方交互治理下的永康休闲运动车集群产业的升级

产业集群的演进过程中，全球与地方的作用是双向的。文章以全球与地方两种不同空间尺度的治理为视角，分析两者的各自影响，提出一般性的四个交互作用阶段。本文认为，在全球与地方交互治理下，以及在新兴产业领域以及电子商务发展的情况下，后发国家的产业集群完全可以摆脱“逐底式”的发展模式，实现产业升级。