广西城市空气污染预报业务系统的建立

应用数值预报与动态统计预报相结合的集成预报技术方法,将城市大气污染数值预报(CAPPS)模式、动态统计模式、Sybase数据库、网页技术等有机地结合起来,建立广西城市空气污染预报系统,形成了流畅的集资料传输交换、预报模式运算、预报制作与发布于一体的气象系统和环保系统预报会商的综合业务工作平台,在广西气象台同时对南宁、桂林和北海的城市空气污染做出预报。将近两年的业务实践应用表明,所建立的空气污染预报系统性能稳定、技术成熟、自动化程度和预报准确率高．     

Use of double mass curves in hydrologic benefit evaluations

Environmental change resulting from intensified human interventions and climate change has impacted the hydrological function of many large river systems, largely altering the production and transport of run‐off and sediment. It is thus vital to quantitatively evaluate the influence of climate change and human activities on streamflow and sediment discharge. Water balance equations, hydrological models, and comparative analyses are commonly used to fulfil this need. Double mass curves (DMCs), being one useful method for comparative analyses, are characterized by low data requirements and high transferability, and thus more practical than water balance equations and hydrological models for hydrologic benefit evaluations. However, the detailed derivation procedure of the DMC has, to date, yet been described in literature. Moreover, in previous studies, changing points of the DMC were determined either rather empirically or as the changing point of streamflow or sediment discharge (i.e., precipitation was not considered). Hence, the changing point detected may be subject to inaccuracies. This paper, for the first time, comprehensively detailed the derivation procedure of the DMC; a new way was proposed to quantitatively examine the changing point of the DMC; an example was also given to demonstrate the use of the DMC in the hydrologic benefit evaluation. It is hopeful that the method given in our paper will be widely adopted by future studies as a standard procedure to derive and use the DMC.     

CINRAD/SB雷达伺服上电故障诊断分析

在详细介绍CINRAD/SB雷达数字伺服系统加电控制、天线状态信号流程的基础上,分析出数字伺服系统无法上电3方面原因：负载过载导致空气开关保护性断电;伺服系统加电信号不正常;制动器过流导致温度超限。总结了CINRAD/SB雷达伺服系统无法上电故障的分析方法和诊断流程。通过诊断流程详细论述两例伺服无法上电的复杂故障分析和排除过程,以及在台站无配件更换情况下,充分利用雷达线路特点暂时采用应急方法尽快恢复雷达运转的方法,保证灾害性天气监测的需求。为新一代天气雷达技术支持和保障提供借鉴。     

广东沿岸海雾决策树预报模型

利用汕头、珠海和湛江地面观测站2000-2008年1-5月的海雾历史观测资料和NCEP/NCAR FNL再分析资料,采用分类与回归树(CART)方法对海雾及其生成前24 h的海洋气象条件进行分类分析,建立了海雾决策树预报模型;并根据现有的海雾理论认识,对海雾预报规则包含的物理意义进行讨论.10次交叉检验的结果表明:采用...     

Source Parameters of Old Earthquakes: Semi-Automatic Digitization of Analog Records and Seismic Moment Assessment

Recovering seismic information contained in old analog records could increase our knowledge of seismic source characteristics and the seismicity of a region. This is particularly important in zones with low to moderate seismicity.To extract the available information, it is necessary to digitize the seismic records. This is not an easy task especially owing to the generally poor quality of the original records, with illegible or missing parts. However some exceptions were found in the records of a few seismological stations in Germany, Sweden and France.This paper presents an example of the recovering of source parameters and can be divided in two parts: the first one presents a simple semi-automatic technique for digitization of old analog seismic records, developed using commercial software on a PC; the second part describes the methodology of assessing the seismic moment, using empirical and theoretical relations, as well as the seismic source dimensions.The earthquake selected to illustrate this procedure is the 23 April 1909 Benavente (Portugal) earthquake. This earthquake occurred in the Lower Tagus Valley region and caused great destruction in the meizoseismal area. It is the biggest earthquake that occurred during this century in the central part of the country and its magnitude has been estimated between 6.6 and 7.6.The digitization procedure allowed the recovery of seismic information contained in old analog records, in particular, the seismic moment estimation. The results obtained indicated that 7.6 was a very high value for the magnitude of the 23 April 1909 earthquake, suggesting that the magnitude reported in the Portuguese catalogue is overestimated. The estimated moment magnitude is 6.0.     

无氧铜样品盘异常热本底对激光40Ar/39Ar定年的影响

激光40Ar/39Ar定年方法中扣除的本底是样品测试过程中的系统冷本底。在满足激光加热样品时样品盘升温幅度有限和样品盘已完全脱气两个条件的情况下,这一处理方式的有效性才能得到保证。本文利用具有不同大气暴露史的无氧铜样品盘结合透长石标准样品YBCs,使用相同的脱气及测试流程,对比分析了不同样品盘的冷、热本底以及放置于不同样品盘时YBCs的大气氩含量。分析结果表明,放置于暴露大气14个月的样品盘内时,YBCs透长石大气氩含量高达约34.4%,使用预先激光去气的样品盘此值可降低至约2%;暴露大气约10个月的样品盘,激光加热其两个样品孔时,40Ar脱气量可达约1.6×10−14～3.1×10−14mol;暴露时长约为26个月的样品盘,40Ar含量升高至约0.8×10−13～2.0×10−13mol;它们均远高于系统冷本底3.8×10−16～6.2×10−16mol。两个样品盘热本底40Ar/36Ar值约为310,高于大气氩比值。因此,对于暴露大气时间较长的样品盘,约150℃去气四天的流程不足以使其完全脱气。激光加热样品时会导致样品盘局部升温,脱气不完全的样品盘会释放出大量热本底。模拟以及标准样品测试均显示了这种情况会影响辐照参数J值以及年龄的计算。激光微量年轻样品40Ar/39Ar定年过程中,建议装样后对无氧铜样品盘进行300～400℃至少5h的预脱气,以保证测试数据质量。实验室不具备预脱气条件时,持续使用同一样品盘也可以有效地降低异常热本底对测试结果的影响。     

强垂直温度梯度条件下强对流天气分析与潜势预报

采用19年3~9月常规探空观测资料,对南昌ΔT850-500≥27℃这种强垂直温度梯度与江西强对流天气过程的关系进行了相关分析,并将区域强对流天气、局部强对流天气、无强对流天气的3类情况下的中低层气压、温度、湿度、风场及稳定度进行分类合成分析,结果表明:当南昌ΔT850-500≥27℃时,且有天气系统作为触发条件时,江西强对流天气发生的概率达85%;中低层低槽和切变等影响系统、江南华南暖湿气流、河套地区的冷空气都有利于江西强对流天气出现。对典型个例的探空曲线和对流有效位能分析表明:强垂直温度梯度结合中低层高湿度是强对流天气发生的重要条件。在强对流天气潜势预报中,强垂直温度梯度有时比对流有效位能更有指示性。根据上述分析结果,建立了相应的预报流程,并在业务试用中取得较好的效果。     

Medium Range Prediction of Summer Monsoon Activities over India vis-a-vis Their Correspondence with the Observational Features

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地震地面运动模型的研究

地震地面运动被模拟成均值为零的两次过滤Ｇａｕｓｓ白噪声随机过程。第一次过滤削减白噪声的高频含量;第二次过滤削减白噪声的低频含量。根据地震记录的功率谱,使用非线性函数的最小二乘法,确定了两次过滤Ｇａｕｓｓ白噪声随机过程的功率谱密度函数的参数。     

成油环境中的流体包裹体：分析步骤与PTX重建

摘要石油盆地内的古流体以流体包裹体的形式保存在成岩矿物中,它们代表了初始石油或气相的组成并记录了流体捕获时的温度和压力条件。在储集层中卤水通常以不混溶相的形式与石油共存。一般利用单个包裹体分析法对水溶液和石油包裹体进行研究,利用显微测温法来确定相转变的温度,利用拉曼光谱定量来分析水溶液包裹体中溶解甲烷的含量,石油包裹体中CH4和CO2的含量可以利用傅立叶变换红外光谱分析来估算,通过共聚焦扫描激光显微镜来重建石油包裹体的体积。利用Duan和Peng-Robinson方程可进行热力学模拟,并分别应用于水溶液和石油包裹体体系。两类流体体系等容线的交点可用来确定流体捕获时的实际温度和压力条件,从而利用流体压力对具有不同地球动力学背景的源区流体动力学演化进行重建。