新疆地区平均气温空间插值方法研究

基于1981—2008年新疆地区53个测站和甘肃青海邻近10个测站的多年月(年)平均气温进行探索性分析和试验性插值的基础上,以"多元回归+残差内插+地形调节"和"海拔订正+零海拔插值+地形调节"两种混合性气温空间插值方法对该地区的多年月(年)平均气温进行了空间分布插值、交叉验证和对比分析。结果表明,单一的任何一种确定性函数或地统计方法都不能对新疆地区的气温进行较准确的插值,缺乏对影响因子的考虑,与实际情况相差较远;两种混合性插值方法都可以得到较精确的气温空间插值结果,空间分布一致,精度都随月份有所差异,对夏、秋季的插值结果较冬、春季的稳定、精度高;两种方法对夏、秋季各月的插值结果并无显著差异,而在冬、春季后者的误差大于前者。整体而言,"多元回归+残差内插+地形调节"的方法较"海拔订正+零海拔插值+地形调节"法更准确、稳定,但两种方法各有优缺点,应根据实际应用情况进行选择。     

川北绵阳地区降水量的时空分布特征及变化趋势

选用四川省绵阳地区8个台站1959~2005年日降水资料,采用经验正交函数分解法和连续功率谱分析等方法分析了绵阳地区年降水量的时空分布特征及变化趋势,结果表明,绵阳地区年降水量的空间分布不均匀,局地差异大,主要表现为3种分布型:①区域一致型;②东南—西北型;③中部型。绵阳地区的年降水量呈整体下降趋势,但降水剧烈程度加大,同时东南—西北分布型在加剧;功率谱分析发现,绵阳年降水量的变化具有2.9年和6.7年的显著变化周期;绵阳地区各站的年降水和不同等级降水的降水量和降水日数大致呈不同程度的下降趋势和减少趋势,但不同站点暴雨以上量级的降水量和降水日数变化特征又有所不同;绵阳地区区域平均年降水量呈减少趋势主要是由于雨季降水量和降水日数均出现减少趋势造成的。     

1951-2016年秦巴山区霜期变化的时空特征分析

依据秦巴山区96个气象站点1951—2016年逐日最低气温数据,利用一元线性回归、M-K突变检验法和Cressman插值法分析了初、终霜日和霜期变化的时空特征,并对终霜日和霜期的变化趋势及其与海拔高度的关系进行了分析,结果表明:在时间变化上,秦巴山区平均初霜日呈现出推迟的趋势,且在1960年左右发生了显著突变,而平均终霜日则与之相反,表现出提前的趋势,平均霜期也呈现出显著的减少趋势,且在20世纪60年代中期至70年代末期间表现得十分明显;空间变化上,秦巴山区初霜日和霜期呈现出较大的南北差异,而终霜日则表现为较大的东西差异;在与海拔分布的关系上,秦巴山区部分地区终霜日和霜期的变化趋势有明显的海拔依赖性,表现为西部和中东部地区终霜日的变化趋势随海拔高度的增加而减少,北部地区霜期的变化趋势随着海拔高度的增加而减少。     

Probabilistic infinite slope analysis

Research activity in the mechanics of landslides has led to renewed interest in the infinite slope equations, and the need for a more general framework for giving insight into the probability of failure of long slopes involving non-homogeneous vertical soil profiles and variable groundwater conditions. This paper describes a methodology in which parameters such as the soil strength, slope geometry and pore pressures, are generated using random field theory. Within the limitations of the infinite slope assumptions, the paper clearly demonstrates the important “seeking out” effect of failure mechanisms in spatially random materials, and how “first order” methods that may not properly account for spatial variability can lead to unconservative estimates of the probability of slope failure.     

Probability of serviceability failure in a braced excavation in a spatially random field: Fuzzy finite element approach

A simplified framework is proposed for evaluating the probability of “serviceability failure” in a braced excavation in a spatially random field. Here, the “serviceability failure” is said to occur when the excavation-induced wall or ground movement exceeds specified limiting values. Knowledge of this probability can aid in engineering decision-making to prevent damage to adjacent infrastructures. The proposed framework consists of five elements: (1) finite element method (FEM) for analyzing wall and ground responses in a braced excavation, (2) fuzzy set modeling of parameter uncertainty, (3) spatial averaging technique for handling spatial variability, (4) vertex method for processing fuzzy input through FEM model, and (5) interpretation of fuzzy output. The proposed framework is demonstrated through a well-documented case history. The results show the proposed framework is simple and effective for assessing the probability of serviceability failure in a braced excavation in a spatially random field. To focus on the proposed fuzzy FEM approach, the scope of this paper is limited to one-dimensional modeling of spatial variability with an assumed exponential autocorrelation function.     

GIS在成矿预测中的应用

成矿预测的目的是预测未发现矿床的位置 ,初步认识这些矿床的基本类型、规模等。GIS虽然是一个通用的多学科工具 ,但因其高水平的数据管理 ,强大的空间分析及高质量、高效率的成图技术 ,也为成矿预测提供了最佳的工具和手段。GIS应用于成矿预测 ,主要是借助其功能对地质异常进行分析 ,圈出对应的“5P”地段 ,通过对地质异常与找矿有利度的分析 ,建立一个一般性的GIS成矿预测空间模型 ,最后利用模型圈定成矿预测区。     

大同及邻区地震网格化相关分析及预测意义

利用华北地区1970年～2009年的ML3.0级以上地震资料,使用相关分析方法,研究了大同及邻区的中小地震空间分布模式,及其在该区中强地震前的异常情况。研究工作首先是确定空间范围、时间窗和时间滑动步长,然后将地震的空间分布进行网格化再转化为序列;对一个时段和它的稍长时段的地震空间分布进行序列化,计算两个序列的相关系数;并分析相关系数在中强地震前是否明显变化。计算结果表明：当空间取以1989年大同-阳高5.9级地震震中为中心,经向长度和纬向长度均为1.6度的矩形区域,时段长度取3600天,稍长时段取3700天,滑动步长取100天的情况下,1980年～2009年的相关系数时间序列数值整体上稳定,在0.94～1之间波动,但在1989年山西大同-阳高5.9级地震、1991年山西大同5.8级地震与1999年山西浑源5.6级地震前2年均出现过相关系数小于0.94的异常现象,表明地震的空间分布上出现明显变化。并讨论了相关系数异常对于中强地震的前兆意义,可以得到以下3点认识：（1）大同及周边地区的中强地震前,中小地震空间分布模式发生显著变化,可作为2年尺度的震兆异常,为该区中期地震预测提供时间上的参考;（2）考虑到研究区的限定范围为震中周边0.8度以内,地震时空分布的相关分析结果对于地震地点的预测也具有指示意义;（3）相关分析可以为识别此类地震空间分布模式的异常变化提供帮助。     

Water chemistry and its diversity in relation to local factors in the Latnjavagge drainage basin, arctic–oceanic Swedish Lapland

The chemistry of precipitation, snow pack and surface water has been analysed on 205 samples collected during the 2001 field season at 25 selected sites within the Latnjavagge drainage basin in arctic–oceanic northern Swedish Lapland. Additionally, daily discharge and yield of dissolved solids have been calculated for several subcatchments and the entire Latnjavagge catchment during the years 2000, 2001 and 2002. Chemical water analysis included the components Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, Fe²⁺, Mn²⁺, Cl⁻, NO₃⁻, SO₄²⁻ and PO₄³⁻, with SO₄²⁻ and Ca²⁺ being the dominant ones in the surface water. Solute concentrations and chemical denudation were low, but showed significant differences within the basin. In areas of shade, longer snow cover, frozen ground and thin regolith, concentrations over the summer were perceptible but so low that solutes brought into the basin from precipitation could be detected in the surface water. In one locality, it was even found that lake water could reflect snowmelt to such an extent that the solute concentration was less than that of summer precipitation. The highest concentrations were found at a radiation-exposed, W-facing, vegetated, moderately steep slope with relatively thick regolith that was thawed at the time of snowmelt in early June. In such well-drained sites with continuous subsurface water flow, a maximum of contact between water and mineral particles could take place. The concentration values revealed differences in the rate of thawing of frozen ground between shaded areas and/or areas at higher altitude on the one hand and radiation-exposed areas on the other. A comparison with published results from Kärkevagge a few kilometres to the northwest as well as from other periglacial locations indicates that the chemical denudation values from Latnjavagge are more representative of periglacial oceanic environments than the values from the Kärkevagge catchment, which shows especially high chemical denudation rates. The investigation in Latnjavagge stresses the importance of spatial variability within even small catchments of homogeneous lithology as it demonstrates that solute concentrations from different subbasins can differ substantially dependent on exposure to radiation, duration of snow cover and frozen ground conditions, regolith thickness and possibly also to vegetation cover and slope angle as factors steering water turbulence and retention of drainage.     

基于RS和GIS技术下城镇空间变化分析及应用研究

城镇空间变化分析，是城镇发展趋势分析的基础，对城镇远景规划有十分重要的指导作用。它也是区域生态环境演变调控研究的重点内容和基础内容。本文将引用RS和GIS技术方法对城镇空间变化进行研究。其基本思路是，利用RS的TM卫片数据进行宏观监测，再利用GIS的空间分析功能，方便地进行城镇分布状况和迁移变化的空间分析与评价。该技术方法已被成功地应用于新疆城镇分布状况及动态变化研究项目中，收到较好效果。     

Influence of spatial variability of soil friction angle on sheet pile walls’ structural behaviour

The uncertainty in terms of soil characterisation is studied to assess its effect on the structural behaviour of extended structures as sheet pile walls. A finite element model is used. This integrates a numerical model of the soil–structure interaction together with a stochastic model that allows characterising the soil variability. The model serves in propagating the variability and the system parameter uncertainties. Discussion is mainly focused on two points: (1) testing the sensitivity of the structural behaviour of a sheet pile wall to different geotechnical parameters and (2) assessing the influence of spatial variability of soil properties on the structural behaviour by identifying the most sensitive geotechnical parameter and the most significant correlation length values. The findings showed that in assessing the sheet pile wall’s structural behaviour, there are spatial variability parameters that cannot be considered negligible. In this study, soil friction angle is found to be an important parameter.