CMIP5模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟和预估

利用降水观测资料, 评估了参加国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的34个全球模式对1986～2005年我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟能力。结果表明, 34个CMIP5模式中分别有30和25个模式模拟的干季和湿季降水偏多。34个模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟能力差异较大, 大约半数模式的模拟值与观测值的空间相关系数通过了99%的信度检验, 且标准差之比小于2。利用两个技巧评分标准, 分别挑选出了对干湿季降水模拟最优的9个模式。最优模式集合平均结果要优于34个模式的集合平均, 更要优于大多数单个模式。进一步利用最优的9个模式的集合平均对RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种典型浓度路径下我国西南地区干湿季降水的变化进行了预估。相对于1986～2005年气候平均态, 在21世纪初期(2016～2035年), 我国西南地区干季降水变化表现为川西高原降水增多, 而四川盆地及攀西地区、重庆、贵州和云南的大部分地区降水减少;湿季降水变化表现为川西高原、贵州和广西大部分地区降水增多, 而四川盆地及攀西地区和云南降水减少。在21世纪中期(2046～2065年)和末期(2080～2099年), 西南地区干湿季降水普遍增多。在RCP8.5情景下, 降水的变化幅度要强于RCP4.5情景。     

Basin-range coupling structure and deformation features of the eastern cenozoic foreland basin in SW TarimEI北大核心CSCD

The Cenozoic foreland basin at the southwestern Tarim basin was inflicted by both N-S compression of the west Kunlun orogen and northward indentation of the Pamir, which led to significant variations in structural architecture and deformation style. New results from interpretations of seismic profiles in the east segment of the basin are presented here to discuss such spatial variation in structural deformation and temporal variation in structural evolution. The results suggest that the segment commonly exhibits significant northward thrusting, coupled with flexural basin subsidence. Broad fold-and-thrust belt (FTB) is evidenced in the profiles with its front reaching Jiede anticline, resulting in a structural architecture of superposition of the FTB and foredeep of the flexural basin. In the vertical view, the segment is featured by basement-involved deformation belt overlain by detachment deformation belt. The first row of the deformation belt presents spatial variation in structure. The west Kedong portion exhibits anticlines controlled by thrust wedge that has been reworked by dextrally strike-slipping. In contrast, the east Keliyang portion is featured by mainly thrust deformation. Combined with the results from growth strata and magnetostratigraphy, we suggest that the segment presents a northwardly forward breaking pattern, with the deformation occurring along the Kedong belt during the early Pliocene, within the Kekeya belt at early- to mid-Pliocene and in the Guman-Heshitage belt during early- to mid-Pleistocene. ©, 2015, Science Press. All right reserved.     

川西南陆内俯冲造山带地质特征及金成矿作用

川西南地区北起青川,向南西至云南丽江发育着一条长达800余公里的燕山晚期-喜马拉雅期陆内俯冲造山带.其中央地带的地质构造特征主要表现为由主滑脱-俯冲带、超壳断裂和次级滑脱带组成的一套巨型推覆构造体系,伴随构造活动发育有从绿片岩相到角闪岩相的动力变质作用;仰冲块体地质构造特征主要表现为由前俯冲阶段的边缘海沉积物仰冲并褶皱变质形成复合山链,而在俯冲阶段则于山链间形成山间断陷盆地并接受磨拉石建造红层沉积.形成特征的岩浆活动分带;俯冲块体上则只有大型断陷盆地内的典型红色沉积,而不发育岩浆活动.陆内俯冲造山带的央央巨型推覆构造带和仰冲块体是金矿成矿的重要大地构造环境,形成了各具特色的金矿床.中央地带主要表现为断裂构造系统中不同层次、类型和性质的构造对金矿成矿的控制,矿床类型主要为蚀变岩型;在仰冲块体上,与复杂的构造-岩浆活动相伴,金矿类型多样,成因复杂.金矿成矿可以划分为2个系列和6个亚系列.陆内俯冲造山带内的这种金矿成矿特点可用陆内俯冲造山成矿模式进行解释.     

High-resolution regional ocean dynamics simulation in the southwestern tropical Atlantic

The southwestern tropical Atlantic (05°S–25°S/20°W–47°W), where part of the South Equatorial Current (SEC) enters at its eastern border, is of particular interest as it is fed by many western boundary currents along the eastern Brazilian continental shelf. However, the long-term variability of the dynamics in this region, which are also important as they contribute to the climate over northeastern Brazil, is largely unknown. We use the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) here for the first time in this area to simulate the ocean circulation with an isotropic horizontal grid resolution of 1/12° and 40 terrain-following layers. As a primary evaluation of the ROMS configuration, we explore surface and vertical thermal structures, the surface mixed layer, and mass transports within the upper levels. Interannual variability results are compared with the first two-year series of observed thermal profiles derived from the three PIRATA-SWE moorings. The simulated thermal structure in the upper ocean layers agrees well with in-situ data. ROMS simulations point out a broad and relatively weak SEC flow composed of a sequence of more or less defined near-surface cores. The westward SEC transport for the upper 400 m along the PIRATA-SWE section, calculated from the ROMS simulation for 2005–2007, shows an average volume transport of 14.9 Sv, with a maximum observed in JFM (15.7 Sv), and a minimum during MJJ (13.8 Sv). ROMS results indicate that the 2005–2007 seasonal near-surface westward SEC transport is modulated by the zonal wind variability. Three zonal sections extending from the American continent to the PIRATA buoy sites confirm that stronger northward NBUC transport and decreasing BC transport were achieved during May 2006 and May 2007, i.e. at the time the sSEC bifurcation reaches its southernmost position. On the other hand, the maximum southward BC flow was verified during January 2006, January 2007 and March 2007, with a minimum northward NBUC flow in December 2005 and October/December 2006, corresponding to the period when the sSEC bifurcation reaches its lowest latitude (OND). Sea Surface Height (SSH) and the surface Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) derived from simulations and AVISO Rio05 product point out the highest surface meso-scale activity (EKE  50 cm² s⁻²) along the cSEC and NBUC/BC patches. Preliminary results provide additional ingredients in the complexity of the SEC divergence region and encourage us to conduct a more detailed exploration of the dynamics of this region using the ROMS. This also shows the need to continue, extend, and vertically upgrade the observational PIRATA-SWE array system, especially with more levels of salinity measurements and the installation of current measurements.     

闽西南大排多金属矿区地球物理响应特征与找矿启示

大排多金属矿区位于闽西南坳陷大田—龙岩次级坳陷带南部,政和—大埔深大断裂西侧,是福建省较大的多金属矿产地之一.随着找矿勘查的不断深入,对在该矿区外围和深部寻找隐伏矿床提出了迫切需求,但研究区地表地形崎岖、植被茂密,以往很少进行高精度大比例尺的综合地球物理调查,因此对隐伏的控矿构造、赋矿层位和火成岩体分布的认识远不能满足...     

中国西南地区煤中砷的含量与对比

总结了中国西南云、贵、川、渝三省一市各主要含煤时代的主要煤层和各煤类煤中砷含量及其分布特征，并与国内外的资料进行了对比。通过分析，认为西南各省中以云南省砷含量最高，各成煤时代以寒武纪老地层中的石煤含量最高，而各煤种中以石煤和褐煤砷含量最高。     

西南低涡与不同系统相互作用形成暴雨的异同特征分析

利用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料和地面加密自动站资料,通过对2007年四川盆地盛夏3次西南低涡与不同系统相互作用时形成四川盆地暴雨过程的环流特征、影响系统以及风暴相对螺旋度、湿位涡、水汽通量等物理量场特征进行对比分析,找出西南低涡与不同系统相互作用形成暴雨过程中各物理量的异同点。分析表明,西南低涡与不同系统相互作用形成暴雨机制的共同点是：暴雨发生在西南低涡中心附近,西南低涡暴雨区内存在着稳定的上升气流和水汽辐合,伴有明显的能量释放特征,西南低涡暴雨都是发生在对流层中层螺旋度大值区,强降水一般出现在对流层低层MPV1〈0同时MPV2≥0的范围内,都具有“低层正涡度辐合,高层负涡度辐散”的典型暴雨动力结构。西南低涡与不同系统相互作用形成暴雨机制的不同点是：在西南低涡与高原低涡形成暴雨机制中高空急流的作用十分重要,在西南低涡与切变线形成暴雨机制中低空急流的动力作用十分明显,而深厚的西南低涡暴雨高低空急流作用不是十分重要。在西南低涡与切变线或深厚的西南低涡形成暴雨机制中锋面抬升作用明显,对流层高层MPV1正值区叠加在低层MPV1负值中心上,而与高原低涡相配合形成暴雨机制中锋面抬升作用不明显,不具有MPV1下负上正的结构。深厚的西南低涡暴雨是非移动的,而西南低涡与高原低涡或切变线形成的暴雨是移动性的。     

西南地区云量变化特征

利用西南地区(云南、贵州、四川、重庆)记录较为完整的73个测站1956~2005年月平均云量资料,采用经验正交函数分析和Mann-Kendall突变检验方法,研究分析了西南地区云量的时空分布特征。结果表明:就全年而言,整个西南地区总云量的变化趋势一致,且存在着明显的年际变化特征,1990年代以后全年总云量表现出减少趋势;此外,总云量的分布在一定程度上受地形和区域气候的影响。从季节来看,夏、秋、冬季的总云量在西南地区为空间一致的变化趋势,而春季四川盆地北部总云量的变化趋势与其余地区相反;四季总云量也有明显的年际变化特征。低云量,全年和四季的时空变化特征相似,由于受地形起伏及区域气候差异的影响,川西高原东部和重庆地区的变化趋势与四川盆地的相反,且同样存在着明显的年际变化特征。另外,突变分析结果显示,西南地区的低云量近50a来呈持续减少趋势,而总云量在1990年发生突变,突变前在0线附近震荡,突变后总云量持续减少。     

中国西南地区春季异常冷暖气候的相关分析及统计预测

利用1951-2006年西南地区春季4～5月温度资料和北半球500 hPa高度及北太平洋海温资料等,通过合成分析、相关分析及关联表方法,研究了西南地区春季气温的气候变化及其与北半球500hPa高度场、热带海温场和南方涛动的联系.结果表明:西南地区春季气温具有明显的年代际气候变化特征;春季异常冷暖年份,北半球500 hPa高度距平场和热带海温距平场分布具有明显不同;前期1～3月北半球诸副热带高压体强、弱变化和前期8月～2月热带海温,尤其是前期12月～1月NINO 3区海温高低变化对西南地区春季气温具有很好的预测指示性,它们之间存在着密切的正相关关系;前期8～9月南方涛动强、弱变化对西南地区春季气温也有很好的指示意义,它们之间负相关关系密切.     

鲁西南浅层高氟地下水成因的水文地球化学研究

鲁西南京杭运河以西的大部分地区浅层地下水氟含量普遍偏高,最高达6.0 7mg/L,是地方性氟中毒症高发区。根据巨野煤田勘探期间在巨野、郓城、嘉祥等地进行的浅层地下水(埋深<2 0m)水文地球化学调查资料,结合本区地形、地貌、气候、岩性等因素,对浅层地下水的水文地球化学特征及高氟地下水的成因机理进行了研究,指出本区地下水氟的富集主要与pH值、矿化度、HCO₃-、Ca2+、Mg2+含量有关,计算了F、Ca、Mg 3种元素的组分浓度以及几种固相沉积物的饱和指数,并提出了相应的预防和治理措施。