Regional climate change experiments over southern South America. I: present climate

We present an analysis of a regional simulation of present-day climate (1981–1990) over southern South America. The regional model MM5 was nested within time-slice global atmospheric model experiments conducted by the HadAM3H model. We evaluate the capability of the model in simulating the observed climate with emphasis on low-level circulation patterns and surface variables, such as precipitation and surface air mean, maximum and minimum temperatures. The regional model performance was evaluated in terms of seasonal means, seasonal cycles, interannual variability and extreme events. Overall, the regional model is able to capture the main features of the observed mean surface climate over South America, its seasonal evolution and the regional detail due to topographic forcing. The observed regional patterns of surface air temperatures (mean, maxima and minima) are well reproduced. Biases are mostly within 3°C, temperature being overestimated over central Argentina and underestimated in mountainous regions during all seasons. Biases in northeastern Argentina and southeastern Brazil are positive during austral spring season and negative in other seasons. In general, maximum temperatures are better represented than minimum temperatures. Warm bias is larger during austral summer for maximum temperature and during austral winter for minimum temperature, mainly over central Argentina. The broad spatial pattern of precipitation and its seasonal evolution are well captured; however, the regional model overestimates the precipitation over the Andes region in all seasons and in southern Brazil during summer. Precipitation amounts are underestimated over the La Plata basin from fall to spring. Extremes of precipitation are better reproduced by the regional model compared with the driving model. Interannual variability is well reproduced too, but strongly regulated by boundary conditions, particularly during summer months. Overall, taking into account the quality of the simulation, we can conclude that the regional model is capable in reproducing the main regional patterns and seasonal cycle of surface variables. The present reference simulation constitutes the basis to examine the climate change simulations resulting from the A2 and B2 forcing scenarios which are being reported in a separate study.     

Comparative analysis of significant wave height between a new Southern Ocean buoy and satellite altimeter

中国于2019年第35次南极考察中,首次在南大洋布放了锚系实时综合观测浮标(西风带海洋环境监测浮标,WEMB),为深入了解此海区的海洋环境变化提供了宝贵资料.国家海洋技术中心WEMB研究团队基于AVISO公开发布的多颗卫星高度计L3产品,通过数据配对,误差统计和最小二乘线性拟合等方法,对西风带海洋环境监测浮标的有效波高数据误差进行了分析与校正.校正后的浮标有效波高统计显示西风带常年处于大浪以上海况,观测期间内57％处于巨浪海况,并且伴随有高度相关的大风天气.     

利用区域气候模式对我国南方百年气温和降水的动力降尺度模拟

本文采用NCAR的WRF3.5.1模式,以NOAA的20世纪再分析资料作为区域气候模式的初始场和侧边界场,对东亚地区进行了百年以上(1900~2010年)尺度、水平分辨率为50 km的动力降尺度数值模拟试验。通过与观测气候资料的对比,分析了驱动场(20世纪再分析资料)和区域气候模式对我国南方地区近50年(1961~2010年)气温和降水的气候平均态的模拟能力。结果表明:经过动力降尺度的区域气候模式试验结果能更好地模拟我国南方地区气温气候平均态和季节循环。WRF模式模拟的气温与观测的气温的空间相关系数均在0.97以上。年平均和夏季,WRF模式模拟的气温与观测的气温的偏差大多介于-1°C到+1°C之间。对于降水,WRF模式显著提高了我国南方降水的模拟能力。和驱动场相比,WRF模式模拟的降水与观测的偏差明显减小。夏季,WRF模式模拟的降水空间相关系数在0.5以上。由此延伸至对近百年我国南方地区三个子区域(华南地区、江淮地区和西南地区)四个时段(1914~1942年、1943~1971年、1972~2000年和2001~2010年)的分析,结果表明区域气候模式动力降尺度的结果在区域平均的气温和降水的模拟数值上与观测比较接近,夏季模拟能力有明显的提高,冬季存在气温模拟偏低的误差。对气温趋势分析表明,在20世纪40年代以后的两个时间段,区域气候模式明显提高了气温变化线性趋势的模拟性能。     

IMPACT OF SSTA OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON FLOOD SEASON PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES IN YUNNAN

Based on the reanalysis data of monthly mean global SST and wind from the NCEP/NCAR and the observation data of rain seasons in 124 stations of Yunnan province from 1961 to 2006, we applied the analytical methods of correlation analysis and composite analysis and a significance testing method to two sets of samples of average differences. The goal is to investigate into the influence of the Southern Hemispheric (SH) SST on the summer precipitation in Yunnan from January to May so as to identify the key time and marine regions. Physical mechanisms are obtained by analyzing the influence of sea level wind and the key marine regions on the precipitation during Yunnan’s rain season. Results show that there is indeed significant relationship between the SST in SH and summer precipitation in Yunnan. The key areas for influencing the summer precipitation are mainly distributed in a region called “West Wind Drift” in the SH, including the Southeast Indian, southern Australia, west coast of eastern Pacific off Chile, Peru and the southwest Atlantic Magellan. Besides, the most significant marine region is the west coast of Chile and Peru (cold-current areas of the eastern Pacific). Diagnostic analysis results also showed that monsoons in the Bay of Bengal, a cross-equatorial flow in the Indian Ocean near the equator and southwest monsoon in India weaken during the warm phase of the Peruvian cold current in the eastern Pacific. Otherwise, they strengthen.     

2008年初中国南方雪灾大尺度环流背景分析

分析2008年1月到2月初发生在中国南方雪灾冻雨的大尺度环流场,结果表明:这次南方强雨雪天气过程是北方冷空气和南方暖空气在中国南方地区持续维持、高低纬系统相互作用的一个典型个例.AO指数在1月中旬由负变正,表明了半球尺度环流的大幅度调整,高纬度80°E附近地区阻高形势的维持是1月中下旬到2月初阴雨雪天气过程持续的清晰指标;阻塞高压所伴随的能量频散使得准定常波持续从中高纬地区传播到较低纬度的长江及其以南地区,使得当地的气旋性环流得以维持;在乌拉尔山到贝加尔湖的强大阻塞高压的控制下,冷空气不能大举南下、只是不断的渗透到南方,与此同时受拉尼娜影响西太平洋暖池的海温不断增高,暖湿空气势力也是持续增强,代表暖势力暖池海温达到历史最强,冷空气在南方受阻形成静止态势.一旦阻塞高压在1月30日前后崩溃,供给江南地区气旋性环流的能源被切断,所以2月1日的降水过程以后江南地区的持续性降水也就随之结束.     

塔里木盆地区域寒潮的气候变化特征及大气环流异常分析

利用1961—2016年新疆塔里木盆地43个气象站逐日平均气温及最低气温,建立其近56 a的寒潮过程序列,并结合NCEP/NCAR高度场的逐日再分析资料,对塔里木盆地区域寒潮过程气候变化特征及环流异常进行分析。结果表明:塔里木盆地单站寒潮频次北部多于南部,山区多于平原的分布特点与地形特征有直接关系,全区寒潮频次有一致变化的特征且在1980年左右经历由多到少的转变,共有13站存在显著减少趋势。塔里木盆地区域性寒潮过程易在4月、2月和10月发生,寒潮频次减少趋势不显著,有14～16、7～9、4 a左右的明显振荡;区域性寒潮过程持续日数一般在2～5 d,寒潮范围在13～42站,其中1月寒潮过程持续时间最长、3月与9月最短,5月寒潮范围最大、2月最小,在塔里木盆地最易发生持续日数为2 d、寒潮范围达半数以上站点的寒潮过程。500 hPa新疆东部高度负异常配合乌拉尔山高度正异常与塔里木盆地寒潮频次有密切联系,乌拉尔山正变高中心接近平均正变高中心或偏南时,利于区域性寒潮爆发,且正变高中心强度与寒潮范围有良好的一致性。     

Atmospheric Methyl Iodide at Cape Grim, Tasmania, from AGAGE Observations

Atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl iodide (CH₃I) and other methyl halides have been measured at Cape Grim, Tasmania (41°S, 145°E), since early 1998 as part of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). This paper analyses about 1700 ambient air CH₃I measurements from the 14-month period (March 1998–April 1999). Mixing ratios peaked during the summer, despite faster photolytic loss, suggesting local oceanic emissions were about 2.2–3.6 times stronger in summer than in winter. Back trajectories show that CH₃I levels are strongly dependent on air mass origin, with highest mixing ratios in air from the Tasman Sea/Bass Strait region and lowest levels in air originating from the Southern Ocean at higher latitudes. CH₃I mixing ratios were not well correlated with other methyl halides in unpolluted marine air. The large variations with season and air mass origin suggest that high frequency, continuous data from key locations will make a significant contribution to the understanding of sources and sinks of this important short-lived atmospheric species.     

ENSO发生前与发展初期赤道西太平洋西风异常的爆发问题

利用 NCEP/NCAR再分析资料 ,通过对 El Nino与 La Nina发生前与发展初期低层风场的合成分析 ,发现在赤道中东太平洋增暖当年的春季与夏季 ,赤道西太平洋存在两次显著的西风局地 ( 1 40°E～ 1 80 )增强过程。其原因并不仅仅在于印度洋的西风异常东移 ,更在于南北半球的经向风在该地区强烈辐合 ,造成局地气压梯度增强 ,促进西风加强并向东爆发 ;同时由于地球自转效应的作用 ,来自北半球的东北风到达赤道附近后转西北风 ,南半球的东南风转西南风 ,直接加强了西风的强度。对比分析南北半球经向风的作用表明 ,南半球东南风的强度与位置更稳定 ,对赤道西风两次增幅过程的贡献更大。这支南半球的经向气流来自高纬极区 ,与中高纬度气压场异常有直接的关系。     

DMS and SO2 at Baring Head, New Zealand: Implications for the Yield of SO2 from DMS

Atmospheric dimethyl sulfide (DMS) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) concentrations were measured at Baring Head, New Zealandduring February and March 2000. Anti-correlated DMS and SO₂ diurnalcycles, consistent with the photochemical production of SO₂ from DMS, were observed in clean southerly air off the ocean. The data is used to infer a yield of SO₂ from DMS oxidation. The estimated yields are highly dependent on assumptions about the DMS oxidation rate. Fitting the measured data in a photochemical box model using model-generated OH levels and the Hynes et al. (1986) DMS + OH rate constant suggests that theSO₂ yield is 50–100%, similar to current estimates for the tropical Pacific.However, the observed amplitude of the DMS diurnal cycle suggests that the oxidation rate is higher than that used by the model, and therefore, that theSO₂ yield is lower in the range of 20–40%.     

Statistical analysis of soil variability in a humid forest landscape of Central Cameroon

The quantitative evaluation of key factors of soil variability together with the spatial pattern of underlying variables are important steps in understanding the functioning of soilscapes. Fifteen physical and chemical variables describing 24 pedons were used to elucidate processes of soil differentiation in a humid forest environment in Southern Cameroon. Landscape positions delineated on the basis of remote-sensed imageries included flat convex summits (FCS), linear valley slopes (LVS), colluvial inland valleys (CIV), and alluvial floodplain. Ordination by principal component analysis (PCA) resulted in a three-factor model, which efficiently summarized the dataset explaining 81.4% of total soil variance (TSV). The pedogenetic factor of ferralitization emerged as the main factor accounting for 43.7% of TSV. Identified underlying processes included basic cation leaching, solum acidification, and in situ clay build up. Cation exchange properties as influenced by organic constituents and soil available P were the second and third most important factors associated with 26.7 and 11.4% of TSV respectively. Organic constituents and related biological processes had strong control on nutrient availability and cation-exchange properties, while soil available phosphorus (AP) showed a strong dependence on potential acidity and organic matter mineralization status. The analysis of variance highlighted significant differences for most soil properties across landscape position and soil depth except for organic carbon (OC), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus. All the soils, however, have low pH, low basic cation saturation, and correlatively high exchangeable Al irrespective of their position in the landscape.