Integrating modelling and remote sensing to identify ecosystem performance anomalies in the boreal forest,Yukon River Basin,Alaska

Abstract

High-latitude ecosystems are exposed to more pronounced warming effects than other parts of the globe. We develop a technique to monitor ecological changes in a way that distinguishes climate influences from disturbances. In this study, we account for climatic influences on Alaskan boreal forest performance with a data-driven model. We defined ecosystem performance anomalies (EPA) using the residuals of the model and made annual maps of EPA. Most areas (88%) did not have anomalous ecosystem performance for at least 6 of 8 years between 1996 and 2004. Areas with underperforming EPA (10%) often indicate areas associated with recent fires and areas of possible insect infestation or drying soil related to permafrost degradation. Overperforming areas (2%) occurred in older fire recovery areas where increased deciduous vegetation components are expected. The EPA measure was validated with composite burn index data and Landsat vegetation indices near and within burned areas.     

Sediment and Water Discharge Assessment on Santiago and Pánuco Rivers (Central Mexico): The Importance of Topographic and Climatic Factors

This study explores the main factors controlling sediment and water discharge in the Santiago and Pánuco Rivers, the two largest rivers of central Mexico. Both Santiago and Pánuco Rivers are sourced in the Central Plateau of Mexico and flow in an opposite direction. Santiago River flows over a tectonically active margin draining to the Pacific Ocean, and Pánuco River flows into the passive margin of the Gulf of Mexico. Mean annual and monthly values of suspended sediment load and water discharge spanning around 50 years were used to evaluate sediment load and water discharge in these two rivers. Our findings indicated that Santiago River delivers to the ocean around 45% more sediment than Pánuco River. However, we found that Santiago River has about half the water discharge of Pánuco River. The high river gradient along Santiago River is likely to enhance the net erosion and sediment transport capacity. Water discharge at Pánuco Basin is higher than in Santiago Basin because the annual rainfall is higher for the former. The difference in sediment and water discharge for both rivers are also related to El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Our results indicated that water discharge in Santiago River increases during El Niño and La Niña events. In contrast, Pánuco River is mostly affected by La Niña events.     

QANAT SYSTEMS IN IRAN

Abstract

A fuzzy rule-based technique is used for modelling the relationship between climatic forcing and droughts in a Central/Eastern European country, Hungary. Two types of climatic forcing'called premises'are considered: atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the Hess-Brezowsky CP types and ENSO events influence the occurrence of droughts, but the ENSO signal is relatively weak in a statistical sense. The fuzzy rule-based approach is able to learn the high space—time variability of monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and results in a proper reproduction of the empirical frequency distributions. The “engine” of the approach, the fuzzy rules, are ascertained from a subset called the learning set of the observed time series of premises (monthly CP frequencies and Southern Oscillation Index) and PDSI response. Then an independent subset, the validation set, is used to check how the application of fuzzy rules reproduces the observed PDSI.     

Moisture transport and seasonal variations in the stable isotopic composition of rainfall in Central American and Andean Páramo during El Niño conditions (2015–2016)

High‐elevation tropical grassland systems, called Páramo, provide essential ecosystem services such as water storage and supply for surrounding and lowland areas. Páramo systems are threatened by climate and land use changes. Rainfall generation processes and moisture transport pathways influencing precipitation in the Páramo are poorly understood but needed to estimate the impact of these changes, particularly during El Niño conditions, which largely affect hydrometeorological conditions in tropical regions. To fill this knowledge gap, we present a stable isotope analysis of rainfall samples collected on a daily to weekly basis between January 2015 and May 2016 during the strongest El Niño event recorded in history (2014–2016) in two Páramo regions of Central America (Chirripó, Costa Rica) and the northern Andes (Cajas, south Ecuador). Isotopic compositions were used to identify how rainfall generation processes (convective and orographic) change seasonally at each study site. Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) air mass back trajectory analysis was used to identify preferential moisture transport pathways to each Páramo site. Our results show the strong influence of north‐east trade winds to transport moisture from the Caribbean Sea to Chirripó and the South American low‐level jet to transport moisture from the Amazon forest to Cajas. These moisture contributions were also related to the formation of convective rainfall associated with the passage of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over Costa Rica and Ecuador during the wetter seasons and to orographic precipitation during the transition and drier seasons. Our findings provide essential baseline information for further research applications of water stable isotopes as tracers of rainfall generation processes and transport in the Páramo and other montane ecosystems in the tropics.     

Observed trends and relationships between ENSO and standardized hydrometeorological drought indices in central Chile

Droughts are natural phenomena that severely affect socio economic and ecological systems. In Chile, population and economic activities are highly concentrated in its central region (i.e. between latitudes 29°S and 40°S), which periodically suffers from severe droughts affecting agriculture, hydropower, and mining. Understanding the dynamics of droughts and large-scale atmospheric processes that influence the occurrence of dry spells is essential for forecasting and efficient early detection of drought events. Central Chile's climate is marked by a significant El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence that might help to better characterize droughts as well as to identify the effects of ENSO on the spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the region. We analysed the behaviour of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) time series for 6-month accumulation periods over the austral winter and summer seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) showed a significant ENSO influence on dry events for SPEI-6 and SSI-6 during winter and summer. We found that the magnitude of correlation between ENSO and SPEI-6 has changed over the last decades becoming weaker in winter periods and increasing in spring summer periods. Increasing trends in meteorological and hydrological drought events were also identified, along all latitudes, with significant trends during winter in the southern latitudes, and during summer in the semi-arid and Mediterranean zones. These results indicate that drought mitigation actions and policies are necessary to overcome their adverse effects. Given the monthly persistence of ENSO and its relationship to drought indices, there are opportunities for drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting that could become part of national drought management systems.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides in plastics ingested by seabirds

The occurrence of plastic objects in the digestive tract was assessed in eight species of Procellariiformes collected in southern Brazil and the occurrence of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in the ingested plastics pellets and plastic fragments was evaluated. PCBs were detected in plastic pellets (491 ng g⁻¹) and plastic fragments (243-418 ng g⁻¹). Among the OCPs, p,p′-DDE had the highest concentrations, ranging from 68.0 to 99.0 ng g⁻¹. The occurrence of organic pollutants in post-consumer plastics supports the fact that plastics are an important source carrying persistent organic pollutants in the marine environment. Although transfer through the food chain may be the main source of exposure to POPs to seabirds, plastics could be an additional source for the organisms which ingest them, like Procellariiformes which are the seabirds most affected by plastic pollution.     

Relationship between historical sea-surface temperature variability and climate change-induced coral mortality in the western Indian Ocean

Many of the world’s coral reefs suffered high coral mortality during the 1998 ENSO, with the highest mortality in the western Indian Ocean (WIO). A meta-analysis of field data on change in coral cover across the 1998 ENSO event was conducted for 36 major reef areas in the WIO, and relationship of the change with the historical sea-surface temperature (SST) variability investigated. WIO reefs were categorized into three major SST groups of differing coral cover change. Cover change was negatively associated with standard deviation (SD) SST until about SD 2.3, with increasing flatness of the SST frequency distributions. It increased with further increase in SD as the SST distributions became strongly bimodal in the Arabian/Persian Gulf area. The study indicates that environmental resistance/tolerance to extreme anomalous events could be predicted and management priorities directed accordingly for a warmer and more variable future climate.     

中国地图上应标注的藏南重要地名——巴昔卡

对藏南地名——巴昔卡进行了研究与考证。介绍了巴昔卡作为中国雨都和雅鲁藏布大峡谷末端的基本情况,并根据汉藏语系中的珞巴语的特点,将巴昔卡的珞巴语含义推测为雅鲁藏布江边;强调了在《中国地图》上标注藏南地名点巴昔卡的重要性。     

The influence of nearshore sand bank dynamics on shoreline evolution in a macrotidal coastal environment,Calais, northern France

Analyses of shoreline and bathymetry change near Calais, northern coast of France, showed that shoreline evolution during the 20th century was strongly related with shoreface and nearshore bathymetry variations. Coastal erosion generally corresponds to areas of nearshore seabed lowering while shoreline progradation is essentially associated with areas of seafloor aggradation, notably east of Calais where an extensive sand flat experienced seaward shoreline displacement up to more than 300 m between 1949 and 2000. Mapping of bathymetry changes since 1911 revealed that significant variation in nearshore morphology was caused by the onshore and alongshore migration of a prominent tidal sand bank that eventually welded to the shore. Comparison of bathymetry data showed that the volume of the bank increased by about 10×10⁷ m³ during the 20th century, indicating that the bank was acting as a sediment sink for some of the sand transiting alongshore in the coastal zone. Several lines of evidence show that the bank also represented a major sediment source for the prograding tidal flat, supplying significant amounts of sand to the accreting upper beach. Simulation of wave propagation using the SWAN wave model (Booij et al., 1999) suggests that the onshore movement of the sand bank resulted in a decrease of wave energy in the nearshore zone, leading to more dissipative conditions. Such conditions would have increased nearshore sediment supply, favoring aeolian dune development on the upper beach and shoreline progradation. Our results suggest that the onshore migration of nearshore sand banks may represent one of the most important, and possibly the primary mechanism responsible for supplying marine sand to beaches and coastal dunes in this macrotidal coastal environment.