Momentum transport of wave zero during March: A possible predictor for the Indian summer monsoon

Analysis of monthly momentum transport of zonal waves at 850 hPa for the period 1979 to 1993, between ‡S and ‡N for January to April, using zonal (u) and meridional (v) components of wind taken from the ECMWF reanalysis field, shows a positive correlation (.1% level of significance) between the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (June through September) and the momentum transport of wave zero TM(0) over latitudinal belt between 25‡S and 5‡N (LB) during March. Northward (Southward) TM(0) observed in March over LB subsequently leads to a good (drought) monsoon season over India which is found to be true even when the year is marked with the El-Nino event. Similarly a strong westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March, indicates a good monsoon season for the country, even if the year is marked with El-Nino. The study thus suggests two predictors, TM(0) over LB and the strength of westerly zone in the Indian Ocean during March.     

Fitness-for-Purpose of Reference Material Reference Values in Relation to Traceability of Measurement, as Illustrated by USGS BCR-1, NIST SRM 610 and IAEA NBS28

As in all fields of sample analysis, reference materials play a large role in supporting measurements in the geosciences. While a rather large number of materials are in distribution (> 380), not all are equally effective or fit-for-purpose in supporting laboratory data quality and thereby assuring the desired comparability of measurements between laboratories. Equally important, reference values that are not fit-for-purpose cannot be used effectively to establish traceability links between laboratory measurements and national and international standards. The needed fitness-for-purpose is not achieved for reference values either when more than one reference value has been proposed and a consensus does not exist among users as to which should be used by all, or when reference value uncertainties are too large in comparison to those of routine laboratory measurements. The focus of this review will be, first to outline the current reality, and second to suggest ways in which certifications of RMs can be improved to provide reference values that are universally accepted and more fit-for-purpose in general laboratory use. The discussion will be illustrated largely by current uses of USGS BCR-1, NIST SRM 610 and IAEA NBS28, as these three materials are those for which the largest body of newly published data exists, according to recent bibliographies of the geoanalytical literature published annually in Geostandards Newsletter: The Journal of Geostandards and Geoanalysis.     

Preparation of a New Geological Survey of Japan Geochemical Reference Material: Coral JCp-1

A new geochemical reference material, coral Porites sp. JCp-1 has been prepared by the Geological Survey of Japan (GSJ). Provisional values for twenty one major, minor and trace elements are presented. The homogeneity tests showed that all elements studied are considered to be homogeneously distributed.     

MODELING THE FATE AND TRANSPORT OF HYDROPHOBIC ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN AN UNSTEADY RIVER-ESTUARINE SYSTEM

1 INTRODUCTION Extensive literature (Brown et al., 1985; Sawhney et al., 1981; Bierman and Swain, 1982; Connolly, 1980; Lopez-Avila and Hites, 1980; O扖onnor, 1988) described lots of sorbed pollutants or toxic substances in bed sediments of rivers, even after the effluent was halted for a long time. This is particularly true for hydrophobic organic compounds that can be sorbed on the particles and accumulated in the river bed sediments (Karickhoff et al., 1979). Pollution events of…     

EFFECTS OF SOIL CRUSTING ON SOIL MOISTURE, RUNOFF AND EROSION: FIELD OBSERVATIONS

1 INTRODUCTION Soil crusting, or soil sealing, is one of the common phenomena in agricultural lands or semi-arid and arid soils. Due to the breakdown of soil aggregates by raindrops, soil surface develops a very thin, often less than a few millimeters, dense layer. Many studies indicated that such a thin layer significantly reduces infiltration capacity and increases surface runoff (i.e. McIntyre, 1958; Edward and Larson, 1969; Agassi et al., 1985; Bradford et al., 1986; Romkens et al.,…     

Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

Development of site-specific design ground motions in Western and Eastern North America

This paper presents results recently obtained for generating site-specific ground motions needed for design of critical facilities. The general approach followed in developing these ground motions using either deterministic or probabilistic criteria is specification of motions for rock outcrop or very firm soil conditions followed by adjustments for site-specific conditions. Central issues in this process include development of appropriate attenuation relations and their uncertainties, differences in expected motions between Western and Eastern North America, and incorporation of site-specific adjustments that maintain the same hazard level as the control motions, while incorporating uncertainties in local dynamic material properties. For tectonically active regions, such as the Western United States (WUS), sufficient strong motion data exist to constrain empirical attenuation relations for M up to about 7 and for distances greater than about 10–15 km. Motions for larger magnitudes and closer distances are largely driven by extrapolations of empirical relations and uncertainties need to be substantially increased for these cases.

For the Eastern United States (CEUS), due to the paucity of strong motion data for cratonic regions worldwide, estimation of strong ground motions for engineering design is based entirely on calibrated models. The models are usually calibrated and validated in the WUS where sufficient strong motion data are available and then recalibrated for applications to the CEUS. Recalibration generally entails revising parameters based on available CEUS ground motion data as well as indirect inferences through intensity observations. Known differences in model parameters such as crustal structure between WUS and CEUS are generally accommodated as well. These procedures are examined and discussed.     

Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.     

山东月湖的沉积物分布特征及搬运趋势

1998年 11～ 12月和 1999年 8～ 9月各一个月对月湖进行的野外工作 ,共取得表层沉积物样品 131个 ,应用激光粒度仪并结合传统的筛分法对这些样品进行粒度分析 ,进行矩法计算获得粒度参数。采用Gao命名方法 ,将沉积物划分出 5种主要类型。利用Gao -Collins粒径趋势分析模型 ,计算该区沉积物粒径趋势所显示的沉积物净搬运方向 ,结果表明 ,沉积物从四周向湖中心搬运 ,同时显示湾顶的西部和北部、涨潮三角洲以及湖心等地貌单元是沉积的优势区域。