某盆地油气勘查成本预算和风险分析

某高原盆地的油气资源量较为丰富，可找到大型油气田。根据含油气盆地地质构造特征、生油岩的厚度与热演化程度、储集层和区域性盖层的发育情况等因素，确定了两个含油气远景区，拟作为重点找油气靶区。提出了两个可供选择的油气勘探布署方案。在此基础上，选用适当的成本预算基本参数，进行油气勘查成本估算，并对两个方案进行了优选对比与具体的风险分析，提出方案决策意见。     

鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界高分辨率层序地层分析

按基准面旋回原理，将鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界本溪组（C2b)、太原组（P1t）、山西组(P1s)和下石盒子组（P1xs)划分为3个超长期、8个长期、19个中期和62个短期旋回层序：较为详细地介绍了各级别层序的结构类型、叠加样式和沉积演化序列；建立以长期旋回层序为年代地层框架，中期旋回层序为等时地层对比单元的层序的地层格架；并讨论高分辨率层序地层与天然气藏的关系。     

洛带气田蓬莱镇气藏开发部署优化研究

气藏评价尚未结束之前，开发的早期部署工作非常困难。针对洛带气田蓬莱镇组气藏的开发部署工作，利用目前许多新方法对开发层系划分、采气规模、开发规划、合理配产和井网部署等进行了优化研究，对气藏开发提出了指导性意见，且对类似气藏也具有参考意义。     

Division of Gas Accumulation System and Laws Controlling Distribution of Natural Gas in Typical Petroliferous Basins of China

Considering the existing problems of the petroleum system, this paper brings forward the concept of natural gas accumulation system and presents the dividing principles. Then detailed statistics on the accumulation factors of the 32 typical natural gas accumulation systems in China and studies on the laws controlling distribution of gas are collected. The research shows that the petroleum accumulation system is the basic unit controlling petroleum generation, migration and accumulation. Generating intensity, generating amount, accumulating efficiency and migration distance plays an important role in the distribution of natural gas. Through analysis on results of resources evaluation, discovered reserves and residual reserves, potential areas in middle-scaled petroliferous basins in China are forecasted in this paper. Ordos, Sichuan, Tarim and Qaidam basins are found out to be the main basins developing and enriching gas accumulation systems.     

A method to predict the group fissuring and faulting caused by regional groundwater decline

Ground fissuring is a recurrent problem in many countries where water extraction surpasses the natural recharge of aquifers. Due to differential settlement, the soil layer undergoes deformation and cracks with serious consequences for civil infrastructure. Here, we propose an approximate analysis of the fissuring process that can be used to predict the location of cracks, which increasingly affect some middle- and large-sized cities in the world. For that purpose, the ground loss theory is applied to sediments overlying a sinusoidal-shaped graben. This analysis shows the existence of a tensile zone at the border of the graben with maximal values on its shoulder where tension cracks are more likely to appear. It also shows that soil deformation under differential settlement may evolve into ground faulting if water withdrawal continues. Finally, when a crack has completely developed, the tensile zone shifts towards the center of the graben, creating a new area for potential cracking and faulting.     

EFFECTS OF SOIL CRUSTING ON SOIL MOISTURE, RUNOFF AND EROSION: FIELD OBSERVATIONS

1 INTRODUCTION Soil crusting, or soil sealing, is one of the common phenomena in agricultural lands or semi-arid and arid soils. Due to the breakdown of soil aggregates by raindrops, soil surface develops a very thin, often less than a few millimeters, dense layer. Many studies indicated that such a thin layer significantly reduces infiltration capacity and increases surface runoff (i.e. McIntyre, 1958; Edward and Larson, 1969; Agassi et al., 1985; Bradford et al., 1986; Romkens et al.,…     

Fuzzy neural network models for liquefaction prediction

Integrated fuzzy neural network models are developed for the assessment of liquefaction potential of a site. The models are trained with large databases of liquefaction case histories. A two-stage training algorithm is used to develop a fuzzy neural network model. In the preliminary training stage, the training case histories are used to determine initial network parameters. In the final training stage, the training case histories are processed one by one to develop membership functions for the network parameters. During the testing phase, input variables are described in linguistic terms such as ‘high’ and ‘low’. The prediction is made in terms of a liquefaction index representing the degree of liquefaction described in fuzzy terms such as ‘highly likely’, ‘likely’, or ‘unlikely’. The results from the model are compared with actual field observations and misclassified cases are identified. The models are found to have good predictive ability and are expected to be very useful for a preliminary evaluation of liquefaction potential of a site for which the input parameters are not well defined.     

Development of site-specific design ground motions in Western and Eastern North America

This paper presents results recently obtained for generating site-specific ground motions needed for design of critical facilities. The general approach followed in developing these ground motions using either deterministic or probabilistic criteria is specification of motions for rock outcrop or very firm soil conditions followed by adjustments for site-specific conditions. Central issues in this process include development of appropriate attenuation relations and their uncertainties, differences in expected motions between Western and Eastern North America, and incorporation of site-specific adjustments that maintain the same hazard level as the control motions, while incorporating uncertainties in local dynamic material properties. For tectonically active regions, such as the Western United States (WUS), sufficient strong motion data exist to constrain empirical attenuation relations for M up to about 7 and for distances greater than about 10–15 km. Motions for larger magnitudes and closer distances are largely driven by extrapolations of empirical relations and uncertainties need to be substantially increased for these cases.

For the Eastern United States (CEUS), due to the paucity of strong motion data for cratonic regions worldwide, estimation of strong ground motions for engineering design is based entirely on calibrated models. The models are usually calibrated and validated in the WUS where sufficient strong motion data are available and then recalibrated for applications to the CEUS. Recalibration generally entails revising parameters based on available CEUS ground motion data as well as indirect inferences through intensity observations. Known differences in model parameters such as crustal structure between WUS and CEUS are generally accommodated as well. These procedures are examined and discussed.     

Screening model for volatile pollutants in dual porosity soils

This paper develops mass fraction models for transport and fate of agricultural pollutants in structured two-region soils. Mass fraction index models, based on a semi-infinite domain solution, are derived that describe leaching at depth, vapor losses through soil surface, absorption, and degradation in the dynamic- and stagnant-water soil regions. The models predict that leaching is the result of the combined effect of the upward vapor-phase transport relative to downward advection, residence time relative to half-life, dispersion, and lateral diffusive mass transfer. Simulations show that leached fraction of volatile compounds does not always decrease monotonically with increased residence time relative to the pollutant half-life, as a result of complex interactions among the different physical and biochemical processes. The results show that leaching, volatilization, and degradation losses can be affected significantly by lateral diffusive mass transfer into immobile-water regions and advection relative to dispersion (i.e. Peclet number) in the mobile-water regions. It is shown that solute diffusion into the immobile phase and subsequent biochemical decay reduces leaching and vapor losses through soil surface. Potential use of the modified leaching index for the screening of selected pesticides is illustrated for different soil textures and infiltration rates. The analysis may be useful to the management of pesticides and the design of landfills.     

华北地区部分井孔稀有气体异常研究

介绍了近年来华北地区宝龙等 3口井稀有气体的显著异常 ,并据其特征与井孔水位动态的关系 ,对稀有气体异常的成因进行了理论分析与实验研究。结果表明 ,水位下降 10 0mm ,岩层孔隙、裂隙中的气体体积膨胀 0 0 0 90 % (气体体积百分比 ,下同 )左右。由于地下水位大幅度下降 ,岩层孔隙压力减小 ,积聚在岩层孔隙、裂隙中的气体体积膨胀溢出 ,导致井孔地下水中稀有气体含量出现异常变化。这些异常是干扰因素所致 ,不是地震异