A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

A methodology for drought preparedness

Drought is a normal, recurrent feature of climate that affects virtually all countries to some degree. The number of drought-induced natural disasters has grown significantly since the 1960s, largely as a result of increasing vulnerability to extended periods of precipitation deficiency rather than because of an increase in the frequency of meteorological droughts. This increase in drought-induced natural disasters has resulted in a considerable growth of interest in drought mitigation and preparedness worldwide. The purpose of a national preparedness plan is to reduce societal vulnerability to drought through the adoption of preventive, anticipatory policies and programs. This paper describes a ten-step planning process that nations can follow to develop a drought preparedness plan. This process, originally developed in 1987, has been the basis of discussions at training seminars on drought preparedness for developing nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It has also been adopted, with appropriate modifications, by state or provincial governments and by municipalities. The process is intended to be flexible so that governments can add, delete, or modify the suggested steps, as necessary.Published as Paper No. 10946, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Research Division. The work reported here was conducted under Nebraska Agricultural Research Division Project 27-007. This material is based in part upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant ATM-8704050.     

长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。     

应用"极值剔除"和"逐步消空"法建立太原机场11月份辐射大雾预报指标集

本文介绍了利用“极值剔除”和“逐步消空”方法建立太原机场11月份辐射大雾预报指标集的具体过程，并对得出的预报指标进行回报检验，以证实其在业务中的切实可行性。     

鹤壁市春旱动态监测及分析

利用鹤壁市淇县1971～2000年降水、底墒、蒸发资料，建立了适用于对春旱进行实时业务监测的动态模型；根据干旱指数大小确定春旱等级，并通过实例对比分析证实干旱指数在分析干旱动态演变过程中的作用。     

冬小麦遥感冠层温度监测土壤含水量的试验研究

在冬小麦主要生育期(2002年4月初到5月底),对不灌溉的冬小麦测定了冠层温度、地温、气温以及土壤含水量,计算了冠气温差且分析了冠层温度和冠气温差与不同土层厚度的土壤含水量相关关系。结果表明:14:00的冠层温度能较好地反映20cm土层的土壤含水量变化,但与其它各土层相关性有较大的波动性;14:00的冠气温差能较好地反映40cm以上土层的土壤含水量变化,二者的相关性很高,在20cm、40cm土层,两者相关系数R2分别为0.98866、0.99389,这为用区域遥感数据反演主要生育期冬小麦的冠气温差进而监测区域40cm土壤含水量提供了实验性的依据;拔节期和灌浆期,用14:00冠气温差来拟合各土壤层的土壤含水量有较高的精度,从而为用区域遥感数据监测区域土壤含水量提供了经验性的模型。     

Damage Evaluation of Agro-meteorological Hazards in the Maize-Growing Region of Songliao Plain,China: Case Study of Lishu County of Jilin Province

Agro-meteorological hazards such as drought, waterlogging and cool summer occur with very high frequency and affect maize production and social-economic development in the maize-growing region of Songliao Plain, China. Moreover, both the frequency of these hazards and loss from them are considered to be increasing with global warming. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively analyze the relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards in the maize-growing area of Songliao Plain, taking Lishu county as a case study area based on GIS (Geographic Information System). Crop yield-climate analysis and regression analysis were employed to analyze and quantify relationships between the fluctuation of maize yield and drought, waterlogging and cool summer, and to evaluate the consequences of these hazards. The parameters and model of damage evaluation were presented using weighted comprehensive analysis, and the degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize production was comprehensively evaluated and regionalized. It is shown that from 1949 to 1990, the negative value years of the fluctuation of maize yield due to meteorological hazards accounted for 55% of seasons, of which 14% was caused by drought, 30% by waterlogging, 4% by cool summer and drought, 9% by cool summer and waterlogging, 13% by drought and waterlogging, 30% by drought, waterlogging and cool summer. Studies on the instability and spatial variation of the fluctuations in maize yield in Lishu county showed that the middle plains are stable areas to climatic influence, while southeastern hills and low mountains, the low lands of the plains along the East Liao River and the western plain are unstable areas in terms of areas in maize yield. The synthetic index of the degree of damage to maize of drought, waterlogging and cool summer showed a strong positive correlation with the ratio of the amount damaged to the normal yield of maize. This suggests that this index can be used to evaluate such damage. The degree of damage of drought, waterlogging and cool summer to maize in Lishu county shows the regional characteristics, which increase gradually from the center to the west and east, this being almost identical with the spatial distribution of the fluctuation of maize yield due to these hazards. This study can be expected to provide the basis for developing strategies to mitigate agro-meteorological hazards and reducing the losses from them, and adjust the medium and long-term distribution of agricultural activities so as to adapt to environmental changes.     

2004年陕西春季沙尘天气环流特征分析

应用我们已经建立的《阳泉市短期冰雹预报系统》分析预报阳泉市2004年6月份出现的连续冰雹天气,特别是该系统中的指标叠加方法,效果较好。     

Leaf area index retrieval based on canopy reflectance and vegetation index in eastern China

The aim of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of using Landsat TM data to retrieve leaf area index (LAI). To get a LAI retrieval model based ground reflectance and vegetation index, detailed field data were collected in the study area of eastern China, dominated by bamboo, tea plant and greengage. Plant canopy reflectance of Landsat TM wavelength bands has been inversed using software of 6S. LAI is an important ecological parameter. In this paper, atmospheric corrected Landsat TM imagery was utilized to calculate different vegetation indices (VI), such as simple ratio vegetation index (SR), shortwave infrared modified simple ratio (MSR), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Data of 53 samples of LAI were measured by LAI-2000 (LI-COR) in the study area. LAI was modeled based on different reflectances of bands and different vegetation indices from Landsat TM and LAI samples data. There are certainly correlations between LAI and the reflectance of Tm3, TM4, TM5 and TM7. The best model through analyzing the results is LAI = 1.2097*MSR + 0.4741 using the method of regression analysis. The result shows that the correlation coefficient R2 is 0.5157, and average accuracy is 85.75%. However, whether the model of this paper is suitable for application in subtropics needs to be verified in the future.     

唐山地区干旱演变特征分析

研究区地处干旱和湿润气候的过渡地带,这一地区导致干旱发生的直接原因是干旱的气候和水资源的短缺,主要就是降水量的偏少.从简单实用角度考虑,本文根据唐山地区1956～2005年的水文和气象资料,采用降水距平、径流系数、她表湿润度指数等指标对唐山地区的干旱演变趋势进行分析,揭示出该地区近50年的干旱演变特征.