中国主要城市地价重心迁移及驱动因素研究

城市地价直接影响着城市的房地产市场和城市土地开发利用,从而影响城市的经济社会发展,及时掌握城市地价的发展规律,根据城市地价及时调整制定相关政策,是政府对土地市场进行调控的关键。利用重心模型,在测算和分析2000-2012年49个主要城市的综合地价重心位置及其变化规律的基础上,探讨了驱动中国城市地价重心迁移的因素。结果显示,中国主要城市地价重心始终位于区域几何中心的东南方向,但东西方向上的差异逐渐缩小,南北方向上的差异则逐渐扩大,地价重心迁移轨迹可以分为3个阶段和1个突变年。城市规模、经济发展水平、基础设施和城市区位等因素驱动着城市地价重心的迁移。     

江淮入梅前后气象因子变化特征及预报着眼点探析

针对2010年江淮地区入梅日预报偏差情况,利用2010年6—7月高低空实况资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析了入梅前后湿度、经向风、地转西风急流的变化特征,并结合1985—2005年21 a历史平均状况和近几年的变化特征,分析了江淮地区入梅前后气象因子变化的规律性、普遍性,丰富了江淮地区入梅预报着眼点。研究发现:有些年份地转西风急流从30°N以南北跳到30~37.5°N区域,对江淮地区进入梅雨期有很好的预示作用,且其稳定维持,有利于江淮梅雨期降水的持续。70%湿度区北跳到30°N的时间及持续时间对江淮地区入梅日的预报和梅雨期长度有着较好的指示作用。在30~35°N区域内v850 hPa-v200 hPa风速差值的突然增大和江淮地区入梅有着较好对应关系。这为梅雨的预报提供了新的思路和方法。     

琼东南盆地深水区东区凹陷带结构构造及其演化特征

琼东南盆地深水区东区凹陷带,即松南—宝岛—长昌凹陷,位于琼东南盆地中央坳陷东端。在大量地震资料解释的基础上,对38条主要断层进行了详细分析。获得以下认识:(1)琼东南盆地深水区东区凹陷带平面上表现为近EW向展布的平行四边形,剖面结构表现为自西向东由半地堑—不对称的地堑—半地堑有规律变化。(2)琼东南盆地深水区东区凹陷带断裂系统可划分控制凹陷边界断层、控制洼陷沉积中心断层和调节性断层3类。(3)琼东南盆地深水区东区凹陷带古近纪时期受到太平洋板块俯冲和南海海盆扩张的双重影响,构造应力场发生NW—SE→SN转变。构造演化可划分为3个阶段:～32Ma,应力场以区域性NW—SE向伸展为主,断裂系统以NE—SW向为主,控制凹陷边界;32～26Ma,以南海海盆近SN向拉张应力场为主,断裂系统以NWW—SEE向为主,断层活动控制凹陷沉积中心;26～Ma,区域性伸展与南海海盆扩张应力均逐渐减弱,NE—SW向和NWW—SEE向断裂继承性发育。(4)琼东南盆地深水区东区凹陷带内部主要断层在渐新统崖城组和陵水组沉积时期活动速率快,地形高差大、沉积水体深、沉积厚度大,控制了崖城组和陵水组的大规模沉积,有利于烃源岩的发育。圈闭以受断层控制的断鼻和断块为主,长昌主洼凹中隆起带发育2个最为理想的构造圈闭。     

A water movement study in Lianzhou Bay,Guangxi Province,China

This study investigates the physical conditions (water depth, current speed, salinity, temperature) in Lianzhou Bay, a shallow coastal bay in southern China, during two expeditions in the dry and wet seasons of 2011. Based on these expedition data, basic hydrodynamic parameters like Brunt-Väisälä Frequency, Richardson Number, Rossby radius, and Resonance Period are calculated. The results show that Lianzhou Bay is characterized by comparatively small quantity of freshwater input and weak stratification. Strong tides, which are spatially uniform within the bay, cause turbulent mixing. Residence time of the water is shorter in winter due to a stronger coastal current in that season. Consideration of the water movement may help to reduce the harmful ecological impact of aquaculture waste water discharge.     

深海会聚区波导不变量特征研究及应用

为了解决深海会聚区目标及其运动态势难以判断的问题,在研究会聚区形成条件和其声场传播规律以及波导不变量理论的基础上,对典型深海环境不同位置的声强距离-频率分布图中的干涉条纹特征进行理论分析和仿真验证。结果表明,深海会聚区存在与其他区域不同的干涉条纹特征,其对应的波导不变量?值为负。本文提出了利用会聚区特有的干涉条纹特征,对会聚区目标及其运动态势进行初步判断的方法,仿真结果和试验数据表明,判断方法具有可行性和有效性。     

Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon

The social cost of carbon – i.e., the marginal present-value cost imposed by greenhouse gas emissions – is determined by a complex interaction between factual assumptions, modeling methods, and value judgments. Among the most crucial factors is society's willingness to tolerate potentially catastrophic environmental risks. To explore this issue, the present analysis employs a stochastic climate–economy model that accounts for uncertainties in baseline economic growth, baseline emissions, greenhouse gas mitigation costs, carbon cycling, climate sensitivity, and climate change damages. In this model, preferences are specified to reflect the high degree of risk aversion revealed by private investment decisions, signaled by the large observed gap between the average rates of return paid by safe and risky financial instruments. In contrast, most climate–economy models assume much lower risk aversion. Given high risk aversion, the analysis finds that investment in climate stabilization yields especially large net benefits by forestalling low-probability threats to long-run human well-being. Accordingly, the social cost of carbon attains the markedly high value of $25,700 per metric ton of carbon dioxide in a baseline scenario in which emissions are unregulated. This value falls to just $4 per ton as the stringency of control measures is successively increased. These results cast doubt on the idea that the social cost of carbon takes on a uniquely defined, objective value that is independent of policy decisions. This does not, however, rule out the use of carbon prices to achieve the benefits of climate stabilization using least-cost mitigation measures.     

The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide

The possibility of extreme sea-level rise is one of the commonly cited reasons for concern about climate change. Major increases in sea level would likely be driven by the melting or collapse of major ice sheets. This possibility has implications for the social cost of carbon dioxide, which is a key policy value as well as a useful summary measure of damage caused by greenhouse gas emissions.This paper extends earlier work on the importance of low-probability, high-impact events for the social cost of carbon dioxide to incorporate the possibility of extreme sea-level rise.To estimate its impact, an integrated assessment model is used, which allows a probabilistic assessment of climate change damages based on the linkages between the economic and climate systems. In the model, the generic discontinuity damage is replaced with the possibility of large-scale damage from factors that are taken to be correlated with temperature rise and, crucially for this paper, explicit consideration of extreme sea-level rise.Estimates of the amount of increase in the social cost of carbon dioxide that can be expected from incorporating extreme sea-level rise show that the increase is significant, though not especially large in percentage terms.The paper contributes to the literature of how to represent uncertain climate impacts in integrated assessment models and the associated estimation of the social cost of carbon dioxide.     

Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems

Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockström et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development.     

非卫生垃圾填埋场渗滤液污染防治对策研究

针对非卫生垃圾填埋场环境污染问题,以某垃圾填埋场为例,通过 WHI UnSat Suite软件 HELP模块计算不同填埋条件下渗滤液渗漏量。利用GMS模拟了该垃圾场中心抽水条件下污染物迁移变化规律。结果表明,简单地表防渗条件下,渗滤液渗漏量为现状条件下的50%,增铺 HDPE土工膜后,渗漏量可减少99%。卫生填埋渗滤液仅为现状条件下的3.6＆#215;10-3倍。当抽水量为2000 m3/d时,Cl-浓度呈明显下降趋势,由84 mg/L降至80.1 mg/L。