基于机器学习的表层土壤成矿元素空间预测: 以稀有金属铷元素为例

近些年随着土地质量地球化学调查工作的开展,获取了大量表层土壤样品数据。然而,这些数据也存在一个明显的缺陷,即1∶50 000大比例尺表层土壤数据往往缺少成矿元素。鉴于土壤成矿元素含量对于矿产资源勘查的重要指示作用,尝试基于现有数据对大比例尺表层土壤成矿元素含量提供一个补全方案。以稀有金属铷元素为例,采用随机森林算法把同一区域2 548组1∶250 000小比例尺表层土壤数据按照8∶2的比例随机分为两组,用80%的数据进行训练建模,20%的数据对模型进行验证。采用变量重要性度量排序和构建学习曲线的组合方法优选了8种元素(K、B、Ni、V、Zn、As、Co、Cu)作为预测变量,模型对训练数据和测试数据的拟合优度R²分别达到0.983 2和0.895 6,说明预测变量的优选方法是有效的。随后将1∶50 000表层土壤的上述预测变量数据作为输入变量导入模型中,得到预测的Rb元素含量,预测结果比较符合实际特征。本研究表明将大数据机器学习随机森林算法引入表层土壤地球化学元素含量空间定量预测具有可行性,可进一步拓展土地质量地球化学数据的服务应用维度。     

A Bayesian network approach for predicting seismic liquefaction based on interpretive structural modeling

The Bayesian network (BN) is a type of graphical network based on probabilistic inference that has been gradually applied to assessment of seismic liquefaction potential. However, how to construct a robust BN remains underexplored in this field. This paper aims to present an efficient hybrid approach combining domain knowledge and data to construct a BN that facilitates the integration of multiple factors and the quantification of uncertainties within a network model to assess seismic liquefaction. Initially, only using given domain knowledge, a naive network model can be constructed using interpretive structural modeling. Thereafter, some effective information about the naive model is provided to construct a robust model using structural learning of BN from historic data. Finally, the returning predictive results and the predictive results are compared to other methods including non-probabilistic and probabilistic models for seismic liquefaction using the metrics of the overall accuracy, the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic, prediction, recall and F₁ score. The methodology proposed in this paper achieved better performance, and we discussed the power and value of the proposed approach at the end of this paper, which suggest that BN is a good alternative tool for seismic liquefaction prediction.     

Social capital and community preparation for urban flooding in China

Social capital can enhance community resilience to environmental change. Productive and trusted relations among social actors and effectual social norms can help local residents share resources, information and risks. The main objective of our study is to understand the ways in which social attributes and risk considerations influence adoption of resilient economic measures by individuals for reducing potential losses due to catastrophic rainstorm and flooding. This article provides evidence from China on how social capital contributes to anticipatory adaptation to environmental change. The inquiry is based on structured interviews with local residents of Tianjin, a flood-prone port city in China, and a standard regression analysis. Findings show that the intention to make preparation increases with the levels of social expectation, social relationship, and institutional trust. Perceived risk and damage experience, however, have no significant impacts. This suggests that building social capacity and trust will be more effective in enhancing community resilience than merely increasing awareness of hazard risks. We call for greater efforts on strengthening the capacity of formal and informal communal institutions. The structural changes required, however, are challenging.     

Environmental governance through “Speaking Like an Indigenous State” and respatializing resources: Ethical livelihood concepts in Bolivia as versatility or verisimilitude?

This research addresses recent environmental governance in Bolivia through its relations to indigeneity and respatializations. It introduces and develops the concept of “speaking like an indigenous state” to examine the Bolivian state’s recent use of a pair of indigenous linguistic concepts, Living Well and Earth Mother, representing the identities of citizens and their rights to resources and livelihoods. State relations to indigenous social movements highlight the use of Living Well and Earth Mother concepts through accommodation, resistance, and protaganism. Six active issues of environmental governance are examined: (1) climate change and justice movement; (2) agrarian reform, agrobiodiversity, and food justice; (3) water resources; (4) indigenous territories; (5) Protected Areas; and (6) extractive industries (mining, hydrocarbons). The usages of Living Well and Earth Mother show versatility as they have been mobilized in the respatializing of the politics and social-power dynamics of environmental issues at scales of the state, global and international institutions, and community and local levels. Analysis also reveals deployment of Living Well and Earth Mother that is discursively influential and yet conceptually reduced and unevenly applied, thus suggesting a characteristic of verisimilitude. My analysis determines that respatialization at various levels, including territorial transitions of sub-national regional spaces, are associated with the heightened articulation of environmental governance through indigeneity and “speaking like an indigenous state” amid resource nationalism. Linkages and logics operating within this conjuncture differ from the prevailing interpretation of the Bolivian state’s use of Living Well and Earth Mother as solely an unwitting contradiction or instrumentalist camouflage.     

Experimenting with spaces of encounter: Creative interventions to develop meaningful contact

To-date geographical research on encounters has primarily comprised observation of naturalistic settings (both micro publics and everyday public spaces) or narrative accounts of encounters generated by conventional methods, this paper focuses on a contrived spatial experiment to create meaningful contact across difference. Inspired by, and drawing on insights from, Architecture – a discipline relatively neglected by geographers in recent times – we use a creative form of spatial play to stimulate groups of people to explore their differences and to develop shared understandings. Whereas previous studies have identified the importance of material objects in art projects and home spaces in mediating relations between people, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the physical configuration of space in work on encounters, despite the fact that geography is a spatial discipline. Here, we engage directly with the role of the form and function of space. Our spatial experiments demonstrate how paying attention to the materiality of micro-spaces rather than social relations alone, can provide insights into the generation of positive interactions by contributing to a greater understanding of how meaningful encounters happen, and what can be done to facilitate them. Specifically, by exploring the size and configuration of space, issues of ownership and surveillance, the relationship between primary and secondary space, and aural architecture this research identifies how working together to create a shared private or intimate space – might facilitate a sense of empowerment and the production of social relations characterised by democracy and inclusion.     

Novel insights on intensity and typology of direct human-nature interactions in protected areas through passive crowdsourcing

Recent advances in geotagging, sharing and automatically analyzing online content from Social Networking Sites (SNS) offer unprecedented opportunities for the analysis of human-nature interactions. Previous studies in this field, however, offer limited insights regarding the benefits of automated content analysis especially at large scales, biases arising from the selection of SNS sources, and the predictive power of visitation models based on SNS data. We explore quantitative and qualitative aspects related to intensity, interests and sentiments associated with on-site experiences in 568 protected areas in Israel and the Palestinian Authority. We analyze counts and content of >100,000 photographs and tweets from four different SNSs, calibrate visitation models and predict visitation in unmonitored sites, cluster sites based on the typology of human-nature interactions reflected in online photographs, and characterize the polarity of sentiments associated with experiences in individual sites and clusters thereof. We find benefits in combining data from multiple sources and controlling for biases related to sites’ photogenicity and type of human-nature interactions. Our results suggest that current best estimates of visitation in unmonitored sites underestimate by 39% the actual number of visits. We discuss how the techniques and findings in this study are applicable in the broader context of the management and conservation of sites of environmental or cultural interest.     

基于Faster R-CNN的野外环境中蝗虫快速识别

蝗虫是常见的害虫之一,对农作物和生态系统具有很大的危害,采用常规的方法对蝗虫进行监测存在一定局限性,为了有效应用海量野外影像数据实现对蝗虫实时监测,本文建立了一种基于深度学习网络的蝗虫自动识别模型。利用手机模拟摄像头获取的内蒙古锡林浩特附近草原的280张蝗虫的RGB图像,采用深度学习算法中的Faster R-CNN（Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Network）网络结构建立了蝗虫识别模型。经验证该模型的精确度为0.756,可以较准确地将蝗虫从野外复杂环境中识别出来,与以往同类研究相比,在识别结果和实用性方面均有较大的进步。该模型是建立蝗虫实时监测系统的基础,可以为蝗虫的防治提供辅助信息,同时该网络结构还可以应用于其他害虫的识别,具有较强的推广性,拓宽了深度学习算法的应用领域。     

基于深度学习和雷达观测的华南短临预报精度评估

利用最新的深度学习算法,即卷积长短期记忆(Convolution Long-Short Term Memory)神经网络,构建基于深度学习的人工智能短临预报系统,以广州地区2019年3-5月雷达观测的数据为输入进行训练,然后进行短期1h内的降水预报。利用常用的统计评分指标(探测率POD、误报率FAR、临界成功指数CSI,相关系数CC)检验模型。结果表明,预报结果与实际观测的相关系数在1h内预报均保持在0.6以上,在1h内预报探测率均保持在80%以上,临界成功指数在降水强度为10mm·h^-1时,基本保持在60%,误报率均小于40%。     

Impact of justice and solidarity variables on the acceptability of managed realignment

Sea-level rise due to climate change will have significant effects on coastal areas and populations. Adaptation policies recommend the managed realignment of the most vulnerable assets and activities. Despite their medium- and long-term benefits, these policies face significant friction due to social acceptability in the communities where they are implemented.

This article investigates the hypothesis that respecting principles of justice in the implementation of managed realignment should increase its acceptability. We compare preferences of those people who are exposed to the risk of climate-change-induced flooding and those who are not, as regards funding managed retreat policies and defining compensation criteria for assets at risk. The main theories of social justice provide the four principles included in the analysis: efficiency, need, responsibility and priority assigned to property rights.

A choice experiment survey was conducted with 258 residents of coastal and hinterland communities in the south of France. Four attributes were selected to define the managed realignment policy: the dialogue arrangements, the implementation period, the policy implementation schedule and the cost. The results show support for a relatively fast launch of these policies (within 15 years) but in stages and through a process of dialogue with the population. People's perceptions of the funding criteria reveal a preference for national solidarity. Finally, national funding of managed retreat policies and compensation criteria based on market prices have a significant positive influence on the acceptability of managed realignment policies, whereas introducing responsibility-based compensation criteria tends to favour the status quo over the adaptation policy.

Policy relevance

Prioritization of the funding criteria reveals the preference for national solidarity. Preferences for the justice criteria underpinning compensation reveal a great diversity of values. Besides implantation modalities, preferences for managed realignment policies depend on which level they are implemented at, on the expropriation criteria (the emphasis given to property rights, i.e. market price), on the attachment (people perceived as worst off, i.e. the property is their main residence rather than a second home or they have lower levels of income) and on the degree of responsibility (related to the date of purchase, i.e. on the information given at the time on the risk).     

An ecological economics framework for assessing environmental flows: the case of inter-basin water transfers in Lesotho

This paper used the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) that transfers water from the Orange River Basin in Lesotho to the Vaal River Basin in South Africa as a case study to show how environmental sustainability aspects can be integrated into economic development planning. Using the Ecological Social Accounting Matrix (ESAM) for Lesotho that integrates ecological implications of the LHWP with economic benefits of the project, the paper analysed the impact of lost ecological services downstream the LHWP dams in Lesotho on the well-being of households directly affected by the project (riparians) and the general economy of the country. The results revealed that despite significant economic benefits, the project has unintended impacts on ecological resources and services with resultant deleterious well-being implications for riparians. The results from the ESAM analysis indicated that not only the income of riparians is likely to suffer, but also that of other households and social groups, as well as the general economy of Lesotho. While results of the ESAM analysis did not indicate large income impacts on the economy at large, they were significant for riparians. The importance of integrating ecological consequences into impact assessment of IBWT before such transfers can be implemented to ensure sustainable development and considering economy-wide impacts associated with IBWT was proven necessary for a holistic impact assessment of IBWT.