Machine learning for pore-water pressure time-series prediction: Application of recurrent neural networks

Knowledge of pore-water pressure(PWP)variation is fundamental for slope stability.A precise prediction of PWP is difficult due to complex physical mechanisms and in situ natural variability.To explore the applicability and advantages of recurrent neural networks(RNNs)on PWP prediction,three variants of RNNs,i.e.,standard RNN,long short-term memory(LSTM)and gated recurrent unit(GRU)are adopted and compared with a traditional static artificial neural network(ANN),i.e.,multi-layer perceptron(MLP).Measurements of rainfall and PWP of representative piezometers from a fully instrumented natural slope in Hong Kong are used to establish the prediction models.The coefficient of determination(R^2)and root mean square error(RMSE)are used for model evaluations.The influence of input time series length on the model performance is investigated.The results reveal that MLP can provide acceptable performance but is not robust.The uncertainty bounds of RMSE of the MLP model range from 0.24 kPa to 1.12 k Pa for the selected two piezometers.The standard RNN can perform better but the robustness is slightly affected when there are significant time lags between PWP changes and rainfall.The GRU and LSTM models can provide more precise and robust predictions than the standard RNN.The effects of the hidden layer structure and the dropout technique are investigated.The single-layer GRU is accurate enough for PWP prediction,whereas a double-layer GRU brings extra time cost with little accuracy improvement.The dropout technique is essential to overfitting prevention and improvement of accuracy.     

GIS支持下长江口南支河道百年来的演变

利用长江口南支河道1900—2001年的5幅海图资料,在GIS的支持下,建立了百年来长江口南支河道的水下数字高程模型(DEM),在此基础上对其演变特征进行了计算和分析。结果表明:(1)1900—2001年间南支河道表现为微冲,不同时段的冲淤状况不同。(2)南支河道的冲淤演变主要表现为5个水道和4个成形沙体的冲淤变化,各水道的最大水深和成形沙体的总面积和总体积都呈不断增大趋势。(3)南支河道各主要断面以复式河槽为主,主槽位于南岸,且最大水深不断增大。位于南支河道入口处和出口处断面的变化比中段断面的变化剧烈。(4)南支河道的演变是自然演变和人工控制共同作用的结果。     

上游建库引水对健跳港冲淤影响的经验预测

从分析健跳港水文和泥沙特性出发,探讨了健跳港水动力和河床演变的基本特征,结果表明,尽管健跳港内落潮最大流速大于涨潮最大流速,但该港泥沙净输沙方向还是朝向港内;流域径流对健跳港海床稳定起着重要作用,维护健跳港冲淤平衡的主要动力来自洪水期的径流.利用水沙关系和河相关系模型预测了健跳港上游引水后对该港海床淤积的影响.     

舟山本岛北部灌门水道及邻近海域潮波特性初步研究

依据2004年在舟山灌门水道及邻近海域获取的同步潮位和潮流资料,对该海域的潮波特性进行了统计和分析,并对分析过程中发现的主要半日分潮经过灌门水道时振幅有较大幅度减小的现象进行了初步研究,认为截面积急剧变化的水道,潮波势能向动能的转换是产生主要半日分潮振幅减小的一个重要因素。这一结论或许有助于解释M2分潮波通过舟山群岛海域振幅明显减小的现象。     

沟道偏转地形对滑坡碎屑流运动的影响研究

在沟谷地形中,滑坡碎屑流的运动常受到地形的影响,导致其运动方向发生改变,进而影响到滑坡运动速度和堆积特征。本文利用三维离散元素法,对四川都江堰三溪村高速远程滑坡进行模拟,研究滑坡体不同部位的块体失稳后,在沟道偏转地形主导下的滑坡碎屑流前缘的运动速度、各部位滑体的速度变化过程和堆积特征,并提出沟道偏转地形耗能模型分析了地形偏转造成的动能消耗。研究结果显示:滑坡前缘在地形偏转位置运动方向发生变化,导致运动速度突降;由于滑坡不同部位的滑块相对于地形偏转点具有不同的撞击角度,导致其撞击后产生不同的偏转角度,滑块的偏转角度越大,速度变化越大;由沟道偏转地形导致的滑坡运动速度减小反映了偏转地形对滑坡的动能产生的耗散,动能耗散率与cos2θ(θ为偏转地形在水平面上的偏转角度)成反比;不同部位滑块的堆积长度随偏转角度的增大而减小。本研究分析了沟谷地形偏转对滑坡碎屑流运动速度作用机制及不同部位岩土体堆积范围的影响,可为该类地形条件下滑坡的运动机制研究和防灾减灾工作提供参考。     

浅析如何在溶剂萃取机理研究中正确使用斜率法

斜率法是萃取机理研究最为常用的方法之一。尽管其理论基础和使用方法非常简单,但该方法却常常被误用,导致其非但不能有效的确定萃取机理,反而产生了误导性结论。本文以t-BAMBP萃取碱金属离子(K~+、Rb~+、Cs~+)体系为例讨论了常见的错误用法以及造成这类情况的根源问题,之后对其他萃取体系中类似错误用法进行了简要评述,表明斜率法的错误使用主要源于对萃取反应方程式的错误假定及对工作方程推导过程中引入的近似处理理解不当。最后总结了在萃取机理研究中正确使用斜率法的几点注意事项。     

Mid-late Holocene anthropogenic and natural variations in geochemistry and sedimentation in the Yazoo Basin: Clark Lake,Sharkey County,Mississippi

A 4000-yr history at Clark Lake reveals natural variations in sediment geochemistry and nutrient levels and anthropogenic influence on twentieth century sedimentation rates. Sediment texture and ridge and swale topography indicate that the channel system creating Clark Lake is now occupied by the Yazoo River. Between 1.24 and 0.60 m (2522–865 cal yr BP), total carbon percentages and the C/N ratio average 42% and 17, respectively. The base of the 1650-yr interval and onset of high organic activity in the lake coincides with the abandonment of the Yazoo Meander Belt. The top of the interval is marked by a drop in C/N ratio to 11 and a geochemical transition zone. No change in the rate of sediment accumulation or clay mineralogy was observed despite increased cumulative percentages of Al, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Ca, and Na. The decrease in organic activity at 865 cal yr BP is attributed to unfavorable growth conditions related to the entrenchment of the Yazoo River and changes in the hydroperiod of the area. Significant floodplain alteration was completed in 1978, but the only major effect was increased sedimentation in the late twentieth century due to the completion of the Whittington Auxiliary Channel.     

Coupled analysis for response and instability of sloping seabed under wave action

Wave-induced instability of seabed may cause damage to coastal and offshore structures. This issue has been investigated mostly for mildly sloping ($<5^{°}$) seabed considering uncoupled or one-way coupled response of wave and seabed interaction. However, some of the marine structures are founded on seabed with steeper slopes. In this study, the wave-induced response and instability of sloping seabed are evaluated using a coupled finite element model. The interaction between fluid and porous seabed accounting for the effect of fluid motion on the seabed response, and conversely the effect of seabed response on the fluid motion (but not on the surface wave profile) is considered. The results indicate that the system response (fluid pressure, stresses, etc.) and the extent of instantaneously liquefied zone within the sloping seabed with significant steepness are lesser than those for horizontal seabed. Moreover, for typical sediment and wave characteristics, for the flat seabed, the response obtained from fully coupled analysis is not significantly different from those obtained by uncoupled analysis. For the sloping bed, such difference is slightly greater as compared to that for the flat bed.     

南海北部水合物富集区水道特征对比与成因分析

天然气水合物作为现今乃至未来的重要清洁能源之一,其沉积环境和成矿条件的研究一直是国内外地质学家关注的热点问题,我国2007年、2013年及2015年已先后在神狐、和东沙海域多次成功钻获了天然气水合物实物样品。由此南海北部陆坡成为探讨天然气水合物沉积成因与成矿条件的重要试验区。然而,南海北部陆坡区的神狐、东沙及琼东南三个海域均有不同程度的天然气水合物发现,其各自的水深、沉积特征、气源成因及水合物成矿条件各有特点。本文利用地震沉积学原理,结合不同沉积相和沉积演化和古地貌、海平面变化和构造运动等因素,识别出不同类型的地震相。通过对比南海北部陆坡区域的水道系统的MTDs,认为其发育位置、展布和控制因素的不同影响了沉积展布。其中东沙区域位于近物源的上陆坡,神狐区域位于正常的缓陆坡区域,琼东南区域位于远离物源的海底平原区域。并且,水道系统可以分成侵蚀型,侵蚀-加积型和加积型,MTDs也可以分成头部拉张型,中部过渡型和趾部挤压型。     

河套盆地北缘色尔滕山河流地貌参数特征及其成因分析

地貌形态是构造和地表过程相互作用的复杂产物,主要通过构造活动和岩石的抗侵蚀能力等来调节。构造活动相对较弱的古老造山带往往可以忽略构造驱动的岩石抬升,使得研究岩石抗侵蚀能力对其地貌雕刻的贡献成为可能。但是目前大多数活动造山带地貌研究的结果显示地貌主要受控于活动构造,关于岩性对地貌演化影响的报道较少。色尔滕山山前断裂为河套盆地北缘的一条重要控盆断裂,全新世以来该断裂的活动性较强,曾发生过两次较大震级地震（M6. 4和M5. 9）。前人活动构造研究表明该断裂的活动性具有空间差异,中部乌加河镇活动性最强,两端逐渐减弱。但相对河套盆地北缘其他大型断裂（如狼山山前断裂、乌拉山北缘断裂和大青山山前断裂）,该断裂的地貌参数研究较少。同时其地貌演化特征及发育机理仍然不清楚,这些均制约了对该断裂的变形动力学理解。本文基于30 m分辨率的DEM数据对该断裂进行详细的河流地貌学参数研究,包括使用Arcgis和Matlab脚本提取色尔滕山山前33条河流的子流域盆地面积 高程积分（HI）和相应河道陡峭指数（Ksn）、河道纵剖面及其裂点等地貌学参数。结果表明研究区河流HI值大部分处于0. 40~0. 66之间,其中乌加河镇附近具有高值,流域盆地处于发育的壮年期。瞬态河道和稳态河道均沿着色尔滕山山前断裂走向分布,可能表明色尔滕山山前大部分河道目前处于瞬时地貌向均衡地貌演化阶段,并且通过对比发现瞬态河道裂点成因存在岩性和构造共同控制的现象。河道陡峭指数空间分布差异性较大,乌加河镇附近（S13~S20）陡峭指数较大,向两边陡峭指数逐渐减小,在S8河流以西又有增大的趋势。通过结合岩性和降雨情况分析发现,河道陡峭指数除了受岩性抗侵蚀能力影响外,其分布还与色尔滕山山前断裂垂直滑移速率分布和垂直位错分布基本一致。综合来看,地貌参数的空间分布是岩性差异和色尔滕山山前断裂活动分段差异性共同控制的结果,表明该地区岩性和构造对地貌的协同塑造作用。