The complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics of annual runoff processes in the three headwaters of the Tarim River

This paper attempted to identify fractal and chaotic characteristics of the annual runoff processes in headwaters of the Tarim River. Methods of fractal analyses were used to explore several aspects of the temporal changes from 1957 to 2002. The main findings are as follows: (1) The annual runoff processes of the three headwaters of the Tarim River are complex nonlinear systems with fractal as well as chaotic dynamics. (2) The correlation dimensions of attractor derived from the time series of the annual runoff for the Hotan, Yarkand and Aksu rivers are all greater than 3.0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are chaotic dynamical systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and the dynamic modeling of their annual runoff process requires at least four independent variables. (3) The time series of annual runoff in each river presents a long-term correlation characteristic. The Hurst exponent for the period of 1989 to 2002 suggests that we may expect to see an increasing trend in the annual runoff of the Aksu and Yarkand rivers in the years after 2002, but a decreasing tendency for the Hotan River in the same period.     

云南会泽井水位与水温相关关系及其变异的地震预测意义

以不同的时间尺度,对2003～2006 年云南会泽井的水位和水温资料进行了相关性计算.结果表明,水位和水温的趋势性变化具有很好的相关性(R=0.738,α=0.01)和同步性.较小时间尺度的相关性计算结果还显示,两者不仅有相关性和同步性,还有差异性,这种差异性特征与会泽及附近地区中强以上地震对应较好,可看作地震前兆异常,作为短期地震预报指标.     

序列衰减与余震激发研究进展及应用成果

着重于序列衰减与余震激发,系统介绍了修改的大森公式、ETAS模型及BASS模型的最新理论研究进展及应用成果。修改的大森公式是迄今为止对序列衰减的最好描述,据此可对序列衰减特征进行定量表述。大森公式本质上是一种典型的现象统计模型,但由于其参数少、计算简单,并且确实能够反映序列衰减的总体特征,因而在实际中应用广泛。ETAS模型考虑了具有统计自相似特征的次级余震激发问题,次级余震激发强度与父地震强度有关,这在物理过程方面对大森公式进行了大大的拓展。由于考虑了次级余震的激发问题,ETAS模型不但在余震序列研究方面比修改的大森公式有了明显的进展,而且在诸如平静检测、余震群集剔除、背景地震活动评估、外因触发地震活动检测等方面也有诸多应用。BASS模型遵循修改的Bath定律,而ETAS模型遵循的是与父地震震级有关的相似率,这是BASS模型与ETAS模型的最大区别,因而相对ETAS模型而言,BASS模型是一种完全自相似的理想化模型,但目前基于BASS模型的应用研究尚不多见     

基于ANSYS的灵敏度分析及其在单层网壳中的应用

基于实验数据的灵敏度分析是一种可靠有效的分析方法,详细阐述了ANSYS中基于实验数据的灵敏度分析基本原理,为基于ANSYS的结构灵敏度分析提供参考;应用ANSYS对一个Schwedler型单层球面网壳进行了灵敏度分析,得出了几种结构响应对于杆件的灵敏度值,将不同位置的杆件对于几种结构响应的影响程度进行了量化,可为该类型单层网壳的设计及响应控制提供参考,通过对计算结果的分析验证了基于实验数据灵敏度分析的高效性和可靠性.     

基于相关分析的飞行器地磁匹配算法仿真研究

匹配算法是进行飞行器地磁辅助制导研究的重要内容之一.通过理论分析和借鉴地形匹配算法,采用了基于相关分析的地磁匹配算法,并介绍了几种常用的相关分析方法.分析了飞行器地磁匹配制导过程中可能的噪声来源,确定了主要噪声的模型.以测量数据作为基准图,以测量数据叠加各种噪声模拟实时图,对各种相关分析方法进行了匹配仿真.根据仿真结果,讨论了各种相关分析方法对不同噪声的敏感程度、匹配长度变化对各种相关分析方法的影响以及各种相关分析方法对飞行器地磁匹配制导的适用性,为相关分析方法的选择和对匹配算法进行更深入的研究奠定了一定基础.     

轻型动力触探法与静力触探法检测粗砂相对密实度的相关性研究

大量的模型试验和现场试验结果表明,轻型动力触探和静力触探都可用于公路桥涵台背回填中粗砂的密实度检测,而且锤击数N10和锥尖阻力Qc存在着良好的线性关系。为了从理论上揭示两者的相关性的根源,采用拉德模型模拟了两种方法的试验过程,三维有限元数值分析得知,两种触探方法在砂土中的应力、应变和位移场有较大的相似性,验证了轻型动力触探和静力触探在中粗砂中试验结果相关性的必然性。     

高分子材料SH固沙性能与微结构相关性研究

SH作为一种环保型、节约型有机高分子固化材料,用于沙漠治理具有广阔的应用前景。采用不同浓度SH、不同加固方式对沙体进行加固,加固后沙体微结构会发生变化,其物理力学性能也会出现显著变化。通过图形处理软件对固化后沙体的SEM图像进行计算分析;利用多元逐步回归分析方法对其性能参数与微结构参数之间的相关性进行计算,并对其相关性进行分析评价。计算结果表明,二者之间存在着良好的相关关系,各向异性、等效直径、扁圆度、充填比和面积比是对固化沙土力学性质影响较为显著的5个微结构参数。从微观角度证明了SH是一种较为理想的高分子固沙材料。     

Juxtaposition of India and Madagascar: A Perspective

Proterozoic terrains in South India and Madagascar provide important clues in understanding the Gondwanaland tectonics, especially the assembly of this mega-continent during the Pan-African period. The Archaean terrains in both Madagascar and India are characterized by N-S trending greenstone belts occurring within gneissose granitic rocks in the northern part. Extensive development of K-rich granitic rocks of ca. 2.5 Ga is also characteristic in both areas. Such a broad age zonation of younger Dharwar (ca 2.6–3.0 Ga) in the north and the older Sargur (ca 3.0–3.4 Ga) in the south as in South India remains to be identified in future studies from Madagascar. The occurrence of greenschist facies rocks in the northeastern part and higher grade rocks in most of other parts in the north-central terrain of Madagascar is comparable with the general tendency of increasing metamorphic grade from northwestern to southern areas ranging from greenschist to granulite facies in South India. The Proterozoic crystalline rocks in both continents show pronounced lithological similarity with the wide occurrence of graphite-bearing khondalite in association with charnockitic rocks. While the Archaean-Proterozoic boundary is well defined in southern India by the Palghat-Cauvery or the KKPT shear zones as recently identified, this boundary is ill-defined in Madagascar due to extensive Pan-African overprinting, as well as the development of the Proterozoic cover sequence, the Itremo Group. There is also a possible general correlation between the Mesoproterozoic cover sequences in Madagascar and India, such as between the Itremo Group of west-central Madagascar and the Kaladgi and Cuddapah sequences of South India. The Pan-African granulite facies metamorphism of ca. 0.5 Ga extensively developed in both India and Madagascar is generally comparable in intensity and extent. P-T conditions and P-T-t paths also appear comparable, with the general range of ca. 700–1000°C and 6–9 kb, and near-isothermal decompressional paths. A-type granite plutons and alkaline rocks including anorthosites and mafic plutonic rocks of ca. 500–800 Ma develop in both terrains, provide strong basis for the correlation of both terrains, and define a Pan-African igneous province within East Gondwanaland. Major shear zones in both continents are expected to play a critical role in the correlation, albeit are still poorly constrained. Detailed elucidation of the tectonic history of the shear zones, and the timing of various events along the shear zones would provide important constraints on the correlation of the two continental fragments.     

泥石流阵流序列的整体性

泥石流往往以阵流群的形式出现,不同阵流参数具有统一的统计分布,意味着阵流序列隐含着深层的系统信息。文中根据蒋家沟泥石流观测数据,揭示阵流序列的自相关性和时空变化特征,进而确立其整体性。Hurst指数是刻画序列相关性的指标。阵流的流量、速度和时间间歇序列的Hurst指数值均大于05,从而证明序列具有长程相关性;另一方面,将阵流作为其运动参数(如流速、流量、间歇时间)组所确定的点,则一个泥石流事件为参数空间的一个点集,且集中在一个狭小区域,直观表现了阵流在时空的聚集特征,这是序列整体性的又一特征。阵流序列的这些基本特征,意味着不同泥石流事件背后隐藏着同一个动力学机制,即泥石流作为流域行为(而不是流体运动)的系统动力学。