强对流天气形势聚类分析中SOM方法应用

利用2001—2008年5—9月京津冀地区175个气象站危险天气报、灾情报告及NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,采用自组织特征映射方法（SOM）对该地区5—9月的天气形势进行客观聚类分型,并对各型的环流特征及其主要造成的强对流天气类型进行分析。结果表明：①天气形势主要有4类：以短时强降水为主的暖湿切变型,主要出现在7、8月;以冰雹天气为主伴随短时强降水和雷暴大风的冷涡型,主要出现在6、7月;以雷暴大风为主的西北气流型,主要出现在5月;以雷暴大风和短时强降水为主的西风槽型,主要是出现在6、9月。②暖湿切变型主要特征是低层为暖湿气流和充足的水汽输送、中层为西风气流;冷涡型中高层有较强偏北气流的干冷空气侵入和低层有较好的水汽条件;西北气流型中高层有强烈的干冷空气侵入和强垂直风切变;西风槽型的动力、热力条件都较弱。③西北气流型和冷涡型出现强对流天气的频率最高,达65%以上,暖湿切变型次之,西风槽型最低。     

梅雨期3类不同形成机制的暴雨

通过对1998—2007年观测资料的分析,根据影响梅雨期暴雨发生、发展机制的不同,将梅雨期暴雨分为外强迫型、自组织型和非组织化局地型3种类型。外强迫型主要包括冷槽推进型、西南涡移出型和北槽南涡型,该类型暴雨主要是由大尺度环流的动力强迫抬升和冷空气侵入形成的不稳定层结共同作用而产生;在3类外强迫型中,高低空急流相互作用和冷槽的影响形式有很大不同。在自组织型中,暴雨对流系统具有较长生命周期,并以合并增长、上下游发展和新生中尺度涡旋等形式而传播、发展,是在切变线、水汽辐合带和低空急流等弱环境强迫下形成的一类暴雨。在非组织化局地型中,主要有山区午后强对流和副热带高压边缘对流不稳定两种形式,局地对流不稳定是暴雨产生的主要原因。不同的形成机制,导致出现了不同类型的梅雨期暴雨,相应地这些不同类型的梅雨期暴雨具有不同的预报难度。     

柴达木盆地盐湖区环境污染消纳能力分析

近年来,随着柴达木盆地盐湖资源开发的规模和强度不断增加,环境负载也逐步加大。根据柴达木盆地自然环境特征,分析了盐湖区大气、土壤、水环境污染情况及影响污染物消纳能力的主要因素。采用大气自净能力指数(ASI)、水环境自净能力等级(M)和土壤自然消减能力(NAC)等指标,从大气、土壤、水环境等方面半定量和定量评价了柴达木盆地盐湖区环境污染消纳能力。结果表明柴达木盆地盐湖区内水环境自净能力的等级系数为1.34,水环境自净能力较弱;平均大气自净能力指数是3.85 t/(d·km²),大气环境自净能力一般;土壤自然消减能力平均值为0.639,土壤自净能力中等。总体来看,降水少、风尘大等因素导致柴达木盆地自然消纳能力较低,盐湖开发过程中必须高度重视生态环境保护。     

Resolving the Degeneracy: Experimental Tests of the New Self Creation Cosmology and a Heterodox Prediction for Gravity Probe B

The new theory of Self Creation Cosmology has been shown to yield a concordant cosmological solution that does not require inflation, exotic non-baryonic Dark matter or unknown Dark Energy to fit observational constraints. In vacuo there is a conformal equivalence between this theory and canonical General Relativity and as a consequence an experimental degeneracy exists as the two theories predict identical results in the standard tests. However, there are three definitive experiments that are able to resolve this degeneracy and distinguish between the two theories. Here these standard tests and definitive experiments are described. One of the definitive predictions, that of the geodetic precession of a gyroscope, has just been measured on the Gravity Probe B satellite, which is at the present time of writing in the data processing stage. This is the first opportunity to falsify Self Creation Cosmology. The theory predicts a ‘frame-dragging’ result equal to GR but a geodetic precession of only 2/3 the GR value. When applied to the Gravity Probe B satellite, Self Creation Cosmology predicts an E–W gravitomagnetic/frame-dragging precession, equal to that of GR, of 40.9 milliarcsec/yr but a N–S gyroscope (geodetic + Thomas) precession of just 4.4096 arcsec/yr.     

Differential Rotation in Self Gravitating Filaments

The effect of differential rotation on the equilibria of self-gravitating filaments has been examined for isothermal and logatropic equations of state (EOS). Parametric regions for existence of solutions and upper limits for (the ratio of the rotational kinetic energy to the gravitational potential energy) have been worked out for the different laws of rotation. Effect of magnetic field has also been discussed.     

自组织临界性与地震预测：对目前地震预测问题争论的评述（之一）

目前国际上围绕地震预测问题的争论,很大程度上与地震的自组织临界性模型有关。根据地震ＳＯＣ模型,地震预测被认为是不可能的。事实上,这是一个误解这个误解又是关于地震的ＳＯＣ模型的诸多误解中的一个。在地震的ＳＯＣ模型中,地震的能量－频度关系具有重要的地位。     

Quantifying fluvial non linearity and finding self organized criticality? Insights from simulations of river basin evolution

A numerical study was undertaken to investigate non linearity and the potential for self-organized criticality (SOC) in the evolution of river basins. Twenty-three simulations were carried out, using the authors' CAESAR landscape evolution model, in which the magnitude of storm events, variability of storm events, sediment heterogeneity, sources of sediment supply, and catchment morphology are systematically varied to evaluate their importance as possible drivers for non linear behavior and SOC.Temporal fluctuations in simulated sediment yield show notable non linear behavior. Storm magnitude and occurrence of landslides appear to have little impact on variability of the sediment yield, when compared to the impacts of sediment heterogeneity, rainfall variability and catchment morphology. Particularly, it appears that the non linearity of sediment yields results from the manner in which the catchment processes the variable rainfall, rather than just the rainfall variability itself.The variations in sediment yield show a power law magnitude–frequency distribution, which is a possible, but inconclusive, indicator of SOC. However, several other, more qualitative arguments can be made to support the case for SOC in these simulations. Specifically, we identify the nature of the critical state and suggest two cascade mechanisms by which the system can organize itself around this critical state. Combined, these arguments indicate that simulated evolution of river basins indeed exhibits SOC, at least with respect to sediment yield. The critical state appears to be an indicator of the connectivity of the drainage network. Thus, the simulations indicate that, unlike traditional SOC systems, the critical state of the system can vary in time, as sudden changes in drainage network connectivity may result in sudden changes in the SOC behavior of the system.     

开挖过程的非线性理论分析

本文从岩土介质力学非线性和变形破坏过程自组织非线性的角度对开挖过程岩土体非线性行为进行了探讨。以此为依据,分析了岩土从微观破坏、滑移面形成、直至整体变形破坏全过程的自组织发生机理,在此基础上,建立了伴随开挖过程岩土体变形破坏的非线性动力学描述方程。     

Study on Self-Affine Fractal and Multi-Fractal Features of Geomorphic System in the Tianshan Area of Xinjiang Region, China

In this paper, we use the standard deviation method and the fixed mass method to study the self-affine fractal and multi-fractal features along two topographic profiles across different tectonic-geomorphic elements in the Tianshan area of Xinjiang region, China. The results show that in the studied scaling range, the two profiles display different scaling fractal features, and the form and value range of multi-fractal spectra Dq also show different characteristics. The study suggests that the landforms are not completely random, but are deterministically random. The fractal dimension values in different scaling ranges express the mode, intensity and spatial dimension of the endogenic and exogenic processes. Meanwhile, a boundary point between the macroscopic and microscopic scales of geomorphic process is suggested to be about 5km. These results are of significance in quantitative study of geomorphic dynamics.