The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

1995年度中国大陆及边邻MS≥7.0地震活动与华北地区的试验预报纪实之三

如实记述了１９９５年度中国大陆及边邻ＭＳ≥７．０地震活动的时、空演变与华北（φＮ３０°～φＮ４２°，λＥ１０５°～λＥ１２５°）地震活动等有关的试验预报的实况。对过去的预报办法提出了一些改进意见。     

航空物探平剖图自动绘制的可视化处理

简要介绍了航空物探平面剖面图的自动绘制方法,给出了绘制中对一些问题的处理方法;重点介绍了彩色渐变填充着色、彩色渐变渲染着色等几种可视化处理方法,并提出了着色中渐变度、透明度概念及应用方法。     

Structural and geotechnical impacts of surface rupture on highway structures during recent earthquakes in Turkey

The most significant damage on highway bridges during the recent earthquakes in Turkey (Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes) and Taiwan (Chi–Chi earthquake) was the result of fault ruptures traversing transportation infrastructure. This phenomenon and its consequences accentuate the need to examine surface rupture hazards and to identify those areas at risk. This understanding can help to develop remedial measures for both structural and geotechnical engineering. For that purpose, damage to highway bridges during the recent events was reviewed. The total collapse of the highway overpass in Arifiye, during the Kocaeli earthquake, was investigated. The major problems under consideration (in Arifiye) were: (i) dislodging of the bridge spans, and consequently, the total separation of the reinforced concrete girders from the piers; and (ii) the stability of a mechanically stabilized earth wall (MSEW) system under extreme loading conditions. The results of the structural and geotechnical investigations presented herein can be taken in consideration to improve transportation infrastructure against surface rupture hazards.     

Distribution of trace metals in the Odra River system: Water–suspended matter–sediments

Extensive investigations of trace metals concentrations in water, suspended particulate matter (SPM) and bottom sediments of the whole Odra River system were carried out over the years 1997–2000. The vertical distribution of selected metals and their mobility were also studied in the sediment cores from upper and middle river sections. Significant levels of metal contamination were found. Median concentrations (Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn and As) in the SPM and sediments were (mg kg⁻¹) 7.1 and 8.9 Cd, 128 and 146 Pb, 81 and 119 Cu, 1198 and 1204 Zn, 48 and 54 As, respectively. The highest metal pollution of the Odra River solids was found with cadmium, zinc, lead and arsenic, showing high similarity in their frequency distributions in both SPM and sediments. Cd, Zn and As appear to be of particular concern because of the high levels, that appear to be bioavailable, and their high mobility. The exchangeable and carbonate chemical forms of Cd and Zn reached up to 50% of their total amount. Besides the determination of total metal concentration, the metal chemical forms in river solids were investigated. The results of very wide studies of the Odra River system through 4 years suggest that metal pollution decreased, especially for Zn, Pb and Cu. Among all metals studied in the Odra River sediments, substantial reductions of Cd contamination were observed neither in the period after ’97 flood, nor if compared with the earlier results obtained before ’97. No essential differences of the metal contents were observed among the samples for the same river compartment, from the same locality, taken within the five sampling campaigns. The pattern of spatial and vertical metal distributions in the river solids indicates that a variety of sources might be responsible for the contamination; very intensive, historical and current mining and smelting activities probably are the most important ones.     

燕山中段南麓蓟县北部常州沟-杨庄一带地质构造基本特征

在燕山中段南麓的蓟县北部山区有着中国国家地质公园，中国北方中-新元古代正层型剖面标志碑就耸立在那里。对这一地区基本地质事实和地质体真实位态的研究，不仅关系着对华北地区晚前寒武纪标准剖面可靠性的评价，也关系着燕山运动命名地的基本地壳结构的合理解析和我国北方中生代以来构造一岩浆活动序列的正确建立。本文展示的基础地质调查成果可揭示：蓟县北部常州沟-杨庄一带的地质结构构造远不是我国大多数地学学者们对此描述的那样简单。调查区约200km。面积可代表燕山中段南麓的大面积中-新元古界分布区的基本地质结构构造特征。已识别出的18条断层和由其限制的21个以上构造岩片的现实位态表明，该地区地壳上部是由多个复杂地块堆叠构成的，主体构造形成于燕山晚期，在形成方式上以大规模多次不同方向运移的薄皮构造岩片叠覆为主要特征。     

利用海洋温度剖面与海表盐度反演盐度剖面方法研究

为解决海洋中大量观测数据只含有温度剖面而缺乏盐度观测的问题, 基于历史观测的温盐剖面资料, 考虑到盐度卫星数据的发展, 采用回归分析方法, 在孟加拉湾建立了盐度与温度、经纬度、表层盐度的关系, 并对不同反演方法的反演结果进行检验评估。结果发现, 在不引入海表盐度(sea surface salinity, SSS)时, 最佳反演模型是温度、温度的二次项与经纬度确定的回归模型, 而SSS的引入则可以进一步优化反演结果。将反演结果与观测结果进行对比, 显示用反演的盐度剖面计算的比容海面高度误差超过2cm, 而引入SSS后的误差低于1.5cm。SSS的引入能够较为真实地反映海洋盐度场的垂直结构和内部变化特征, 既能够捕捉到对上混合层有重要影响的SSS信号, 又能够反映盐度在跃层上的季节内变化以及盐度障碍层的季节变化。水团分析显示, 与气候态相比, 盐度反演结果可以更好地表征海洋上层水团的变化特征。     

反向VSP透射层析成像法在岩墙松动层检测中的应用

通过实例介绍了反向VSP透射层析成像方法的基本原理、数据采集和资料处理方法。利用该方法在检测岩墙松动层厚度中取得了很好的勘探效果。     

Analysis of a Vortex Precipitation Event over Southwest China Using AIRS and In Situ Measurements

A strong precipitation event caused by the southwest vortex(SWV), which affected Sichuan Province and Chongqing municipality in Southwest China on 10–14 July 2012, is investigated. The SWV is examined using satellite observations from AIRS(Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), in situ measurements from the SWV intensive observation campaign, and MICAPS(Marine Interactive Computer-Aided Provisioning System) data. Analysis of this precipitation process revealed that:(1)heavy rain occurred during the development phase, and cloud water content increased significantly after the dissipation of the SWV;(2) the area with low outgoing longwave radiation values from AIRS correlated well with the SWV;(3) variation of the temperature of brightness blackbody(TBB) from AIRS reflected the evolution of the SWV, and the values of TBB reduced significantly during the SWV's development; and(4) strong temperature and water vapor inversions were noted during the development of the SWV. The moisture profile displayed large vertical variation during the SWV's puissant phase,with the moisture inversion occurring at low levels. The moisture content during the receding phase was significantly reduced compared with that during the developing and puissant phases. The vertical flux of vapor divergence explained the variation of the moisture profile. These results also indicate the potential for using AIRS products in studying severe weather over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, where in situ measurements are sparse.     

绥中一次暴雪伴雷电天气过程的成因分析

为了探讨绥中一次暴雪伴雷电天气过程的成因,利用常规观测资料、NCEP每6h间隔的1°×1°的再分析资料和营口多普勒雷达的资料,分析此过程的天气形势特点、高低空急流的作用、雷达回波的特征及反映动力、热力和水汽条件的相关物理量场的特征。结果发现:雷电发生在对流层中层的西南风急流和底层偏东风均处在最强的时刻,当对流云团发展到-20℃温度层时,温差起电产生雷电;雷电发生在低层850hPa附近存在的逆温层消失之后,同时配合低层水汽的辐合,产生了暴雪天气;雷电和强降雪发生在大气底层南风和北风转换的过程中,强降雪的时间与冷空气扩散加强的时间比较一致,当冷空气扩散到整个大气底层时强降雪结束;引起雷电和强降雪的对流不稳定层结主要处在对流层中层,并为上升运动的发生提供了动力和热力条件,促使雷电发生和强降雪的维持。