Existence of transverse waves in anisotropic poroelastic media

Out of the four waves in an anisotropic poroelastic medium, two are termed as quasi-transverse waves. The prefix 'quasi' refers to their polarizations being nearly, but not exactly, perpendicular to direction of propagation. In this composite medium, unlike perfectly elastic medium, the propagation of a longitudinal wave along a phase direction may not be accompanied by transverse waves. The existence of a transverse wave in anisotropic poroelastic media is ensured by the two equations restricting the choice of elastic coefficients of porous aggregate as well as fluid–solid coupling. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of transverse waves along the coordinate axes and in the coordinate planes for general anisotropy are discussed. The discussion is extended to the case of orthotropic materials and existence for few specific phase directions is also explored. The conditions for the transverse waves decided on the basis of their apparent polarizations, that is, particle motion being perpendicular to ray direction, are also discussed. For a particular numerical model, the existence of these apparent transverse waves is solved numerically for phase directions in coordinate planes. For general directions of phase propagation, the existence of these transverse waves is checked graphically for the chosen numerical model.     

基于Matlab的断裂带温泉水地球化学特征及地震活动性研究

基于Matlab开发出地下流体分析软件,对比分析了甘肃西秦岭北缘的武山、街子和清水温泉水化学组分特征;初步分析了温泉水水质类型、补给来源、水-岩平衡状态以及循环深度,并讨论了温泉水深循环对地震活动性的影响.研究表明温泉水均为大气降水成因,其水化特征受围岩的控制作用;清水温泉水的成熟度没有武山和街子温泉水高.地下水循环深度较浅的武山温泉和街子温泉水化类型属于Na-HCO3·SO4·Cl,所处断裂的地震活动频繁;地下水循环深度较深的清水温泉水化类型属于Na-SO4·Cl,所处断裂的地震活动性弱.     

Site effect on vulnerability of high-rise shear wall buildings under near and far field earthquakes

Worldwide experience repeatedly shows that damages in structures caused by earthquakes are highly dependent on site condition and epicentral distance. In this paper, a 21-storey shear wall-structure built in the 1960s in Hong Kong is selected as an example to investigate these two effects. Under various design earthquake intensities and for various site conditions, the fragility curves or damage probability matrix of such building is quantified in terms of the ductility factor, which is estimated from the ratio of storey yield shear to the inter-storey seismic shear. For high-rise buildings, a higher probability of damage is obtained for a softer site condition, and damage is more severe for far field earthquakes than for near field earthquakes. For earthquake intensity of VIII, the probability of complete collapse (P) increases from 1 to 24% for near field earthquakes and from 1 to 41% for far field earthquakes if the building is moved form a rock site to a site consisting a 80 m thick soft clay. For intensity IX, P increases from 6 to 69% for near field earthquake and from 14 to 79% for far field earthquake if the building is again moved form rock site to soft soil site. Therefore, site effect is very important and not to be neglected. Similar site and epicentral effects should also be expected for other types of high-rise structures.     

低周反复荷载下Q460钢材框架柱抗震性能分析

为了进一步完善Q460钢材在抗震设计规范中相关限值的要求,本文利用有限元软件ABAQUS,以轴压比、翼缘宽厚比、腹板高厚比和壁板宽厚比为变量,建立了共48根“工”字型框架柱和“箱”型框架柱,分析了其抗震性能。结果表明:翼缘宽厚比对框架柱的能量耗散系数影响较小;能量耗散系数随轴压比、腹板高厚比（“工”字型）和壁板宽厚比（“箱”型）增大而明显减小;框架柱的极限承载力随轴压比的减小及壁板宽厚比和翼缘宽厚比的增大而逐渐增大,当腹板高厚比接近规范限值时,承载力下降趋势明显增大。与采用Q235钢材的框架柱相比,Q460钢材框架柱的延性较小,仅为2左右;当采用Q460钢材时,“工”字型框架柱的极限位移角限值建议取为0.03,“箱”型框架柱的极限位移角限值建议取为0.032。规范中对翼缘宽厚比限值的规定偏于保守,其值最大可取至9。无论是“工”字型框架柱还是“箱”型框架柱,其腹板高厚比均不宜过大。Q460钢材框架柱的刚度退化率随轴压比的增大而增强,且翼缘宽厚比越大,腹板高厚比越小,柱的初始刚度越大,刚度退化程度越明显。     

Effect of coherent noise on single-station direction of arrival estimation

Polarization analysis of multi-component seismic data is used in both exploration seismology and earthquake seismology. In single-station polarization processing, it is generally assumed that any noise present in the window of analysis is incoherent, i.e., does not correlate between components. This assumption is often violated in practice because several overlapping seismic events may be present in the data. The additional arrival(s) to that of interest can be viewed as coherent noise. This paper quantifies the error because of coherent noise interference. We first give a general theoretical analysis of the problem. A simple mathematical wavelet is then used to obtain a closed-form solution to the principal direction estimated for a transient incident signal superposed with a time-shifted, unequal amplitude version of itself, arriving at an arbitrary angle to the first wavelet. The effects of relative amplitude, arrival angle, and the time delay of the two wavelets on directional estimates are investigated. Even for small differences in angle of arrival, there may be significant error (>10°) in the azimuth estimate.     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

贵州省六盘水市钟山区地质灾害危险性模糊评判

贵州省六盘水市钟山区为地质灾害典型区,但以往地质灾害研究方面工作程度相对较低,影响了该区地质灾害的有效防治和社会发展规划的有序进行。本文在钟山区地质灾害规划现状调查的基础上,总结了该区地质灾害形成原因和影响因素,最终选取地形坡度、岩组结构、植被覆盖率、人类工程活动、降雨量、地震共六个主要地质灾害影响因素作为评价因素集,利用灰色关联度法确定各影响因子的权重,运用模糊综合评判方法对钟山区内每个网格单元进行模糊综合评判,根据最大隶属度原则得出每个网格单元的隶属度值作为危险性评价结果,按照地质灾害危险性等级对该区进行危险性定量区划。此区划评价结果可供今后该区地质灾害防治、发展规划参考。     

基于ACCRBF网络的多层砖房震害预测

针对传统震害预测方法逐栋抽样计算建筑物抗震性能的不足,本文提出了一种基于蚁群聚类径向基(ACCRBF)网络模型的建筑物震害预测方法。依据不同地震动峰值加速度下多层砖房的实际震害资料,对模型进行训练,在模型的输入和输出之间建立映射关系,并利用这种映射关系对未知样本进行分类,实现对多层砖房的震害分析和预测。模型的输入为反映结构的震害影响因子,输出为给定的地震动峰值加速度下结构震害等级。研究表明,基于ACCRBF网络模型的多层砖房震害预测结果与震害实例基本吻合,具有推广应用价值。     

用地震危险性分析方法预测山东地区震害

依据地震危险性分析的思路，提出一种场地震害预测的方法。依此方法，给出山东地区５０ａ超越概率为１０％的震害预测略图