Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

潜在震源区内部空间非均匀分布地震区划方法在攀西地区和晋中南地区的应用

本文依据潜在震源区内部地震非均匀分布模型研究了攀西地区和晋中南地区地震区划问题。研究结果表明，一般使用的均匀分布模型会低估地震危险性结果，导致高烈度分区的面积缩小。本文讨论了不同的确定非均匀分布概率的方法对地震区划结果的影响。     

An effective approach to determine the dynamic source parameters

In this study, we present a new and effective method to determine the dynamic source parameters (i.e., stress drop and strength distribution). We first assume that the kinematic source parameters, i.e., the slip and rupture time distributions on the fault plane, are known from the previous source inversion studies. Then, using the seismic source representation theorem we determine the dynamic stress field on a fault plane from known kinematic parameters. Finally, we determine the strength of the fault defined as the peak stress just before the rupture. We have tested the validity of this method by using an illustrative two-dimensional analytical example. To assess the applicability of this method, we have applied it to study the 1979 Imperial Valley earthquake, and obtained consistent results with those ofMiyatake's (1992) andQuin's (1990). Compared with previous methods, this new method is simple, straightforward and accurate, and needs much less calculation. Therefore, it is expected to be useful in exploring the seismic source process.     

信息增益在地震趋势估计中的应用

从熵中信息增益的定义出发，将地震中的能量和频度作为一个整体考虑，研究了全球１９００－１９９２斫Ｍ≥６．０地震的信息增益。结果表明，强震前有信息增益减小的特点。信息增益方法的引入，为利用中小地震进入地震跟踪预报提供了一个新途径。     

用地震危险性分析方法预测山东地区震害

依据地震危险性分析的思路，提出一种场地震害预测的方法。依此方法，给出山东地区５０ａ超越概率为１０％的震害预测略图     

交城断裂中段的活动特征及其地震危险性

通过野外调查和对地质资料、地震活动性资料的综合分析，把交城断裂中段进一步划分为南亚段和北亚段。指出断裂南亚段存在发生６．８级地震的危险性     

乌鲁木齐遥测地震台网监测能力综合评价

以台网的布愕和设备配置为依据，针对承担珠任务的设计指标，详细地介绍了乌鲁木齐遥，是地震台网的基本功能以及资料分析方法；结合考核运行期间记录地地震，分别对微震，强震和远震的监测能力以及适用范围做出评价，同时讨论了误差和存在的问题。     

预破裂中声波信号参数特性

通过对岩石样品进行变形及破坏试验，研究断裂形成过程中的声发射记录（ＡＥ），以找到能解释地震前兆现象的方法．另外，对试验过程中获得的大量数据及资料进行了数理统计处理．     

首都圈年累积释放地震能量的拓扑预测

拓补预测实际上是ＧＭ（１，１）模型群的预测。将首都圈年累积释放地震能量的统计结果作为建模的基本数据，建立相应的拓扑预测模型，对２０００年以前首都圈年累积释放地震能量的发展趋势作出初步预测。     

关于宁夏近代地震烈度考察结果的讨论

对宁夏１９次近代地震烈度考察结果进行分析表明，地震烈度明显受震中区地质条件、民房抗震性能、人为因素、地震类型等因素的影响。据此提出了今后在地震烈度考察中应注意的问题，及合理使用地震烈度考察结果的建议。