基于ACCRBF网络的多层砖房震害预测

针对传统震害预测方法逐栋抽样计算建筑物抗震性能的不足,本文提出了一种基于蚁群聚类径向基(ACCRBF)网络模型的建筑物震害预测方法。依据不同地震动峰值加速度下多层砖房的实际震害资料,对模型进行训练,在模型的输入和输出之间建立映射关系,并利用这种映射关系对未知样本进行分类,实现对多层砖房的震害分析和预测。模型的输入为反映结构的震害影响因子,输出为给定的地震动峰值加速度下结构震害等级。研究表明,基于ACCRBF网络模型的多层砖房震害预测结果与震害实例基本吻合,具有推广应用价值。     

历史大地震破裂区地震危险性的地震活动性定量分析—以南北地震带中北段为例

尽管地震空区理论在中长期地震预测中起着重要的作用,但大地震复发在时间上的丛集或非线性行为使得在中长期地震预测研究中依然需要同时考虑非地震空区的、历史地震破裂区的潜在大地震危险性。为了探索能基于观测资料分析的、鉴别历史地震破裂区（包括历史、史前地震破裂的地震空区）大地震复发危险性的技术方法,我们在南北地震带中北段挑选出8个具有不同离逝时间的历史大地震破裂区,分析这些破裂区现代地震活动性的量化特征,以初步探索判定潜在大地震危险性紧迫程度的地震活动性方法。结果主要显示,反映地震序列衰减状态的p值和反映地震活动率的a值与这些历史破裂区最晚大地震的离逝时间有较好的对应关系,但也有部分破裂区可能由于复杂的断层结构与运动性质,对应关系并不明确;反映构造应力积累状况的b值则难于反映离逝时间演化阶段的信息。b值的时间扫描结果显示,大部分历史破裂区的b值随时间演化平稳,但1879年甘肃武都8级地震破裂区的b值则表现为明显的涨落,并存在持续20年的降低趋势。对比分析认为,1933年四川茂县7.5级、1976年四川松潘-平武两次7.2级地震破裂区目前仍处于序列衰减期,不具备再次发生7级以上地震的背景;公元842年迭部7级地震破裂区北缘低b值的玛曲段比迭部段更具危险性;1879年武都8级地震破裂区的b值持续降低也可能反映该区处于新的一轮孕震期。     

一次全球性新的地震活动高潮

This paper studies the temporal and spatial distribution of great global earthquakes( M W≥8.0) since 1900.We compare the two periods of upsurges of great earthquakes occurring in the middle of last century and beginning of this century.The former period took place between 1950 and 1965 during which 13 great earthquakes( M W≥ 8.0) occurred,including three events with moment magnitude greater than 9.0.The largest magnitude in this period reached 9.6.The latter period starts from the beginning of this century.In less than 12 years,15 great earthquakes have attacked the world with the largest magnitude being M W9.1.On the basis of comparison between these two upsurges of global earthquake activity,we infer that the ongoing high level of earthquake activity may continue for another five years or so.Numerous great earthquakes( M W≥8.0) and many large earthquakes( M W6.0~7.0) will occur globally in these five years.In addition,this paper also discusses the relationships between earthquake activity along the Sumatra segment of the Indian-Australia plate boundary and that in the Bayankala block in the middle of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau as well as in the blocks of the southern plateau.The results indicate that the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau,in particular its middle and southern parts,is a likely place for future earthquakes of magnitude over 7.0.     

Seismic driven probabilistic classification of reservoir facies for static reservoir modelling: a case history in the Barents Sea

In this paper we present a case history of seismic reservoir characterization where we estimate the probability of facies from seismic data and simulate a set of reservoir models honouring seismically‐derived probabilistic information. In appraisal and development phases, seismic data have a key role in reservoir characterization and static reservoir modelling, as in most of the cases seismic data are the only information available far away from the wells. However seismic data do not provide any direct measurements of reservoir properties, which have then to be estimated as a solution of a joint inverse problem. For this reason, we show the application of a complete workflow for static reservoir modelling where seismic data are integrated to derive probability volumes of facies and reservoir properties to condition reservoir geostatistical simulations. The studied case is a clastic reservoir in the Barents Sea, where a complete data set of well logs from five wells and a set of partial‐stacked seismic data are available. The multi‐property workflow is based on seismic inversion, petrophysics and rock physics modelling. In particular, log‐facies are defined on the basis of sedimentological information, petrophysical properties and also their elastic response. The link between petrophysical and elastic attributes is preserved by introducing a rock‐physics model in the inversion methodology. Finally, the uncertainty in the reservoir model is represented by multiple geostatistical realizations. The main result of this workflow is a set of facies realizations and associated rock properties that honour, within a fixed tolerance, seismic and well log data and assess the uncertainty associated with reservoir modelling.     

Approximating constant‐Q seismic propagation in the time domain

In this study, we investigate the accuracy of approximating constant‐Q wave propagation by series of Zener or standard linear solid (SLS) mechanisms. Modelling in viscoacoustic and viscoelastic media is implemented in the time domain using the finite‐difference (FD) method. The accuracy of numerical solutions is evaluated by comparison with the analytical solution in homogeneous media. We found that the FD solutions using three SLS relaxation mechanisms as well as a single SLS mechanism, with properly chosen relaxation times, are quite accurate for both weak and strong attenuation. Although the RMS errors of FD simulations using a single relaxation mechanism increase with increasing offset, especially for strong attenuation (Q = 20), the results are still acceptable for practical applications. The synthetic data of the Marmousi‐II model further illustrate that the single SLS mechanism, to model constant Q, is efficient and sufficiently accurate. Moreover, it benefits from less computational costs in computer time and memory.     

2013年四川省芦山“4.20”7.0级强烈地震触发滑坡

2013年4月20日,四川省芦山县发生了MS7.0地震.文中简要介绍了芦山地震的基本情况与芦山地震区历史地震及其相关地震滑坡情况.依据2008年汶川地震滑坡与地震动峰值加速度(PGA)的空间关系,对芦山地震滑坡大体分布范围进行了推测.根据地震滑坡分类学,将芦山地震滑坡分为破坏型滑坡、连贯型滑坡、流滑型滑坡3大类.其中,破坏型滑坡包括岩质崩塌、岩质滑动、岩质崩滑、土质崩塌、土质滑动等5类;连贯型滑坡包括土质坍塌与慢土流2类;流滑型滑坡为快速流滑.破坏型滑坡如岩质崩塌、岩石滑动、土质崩塌这3类是芦山地震滑坡中最常见的类型.基于震后可利用的高分辨率航片,初步解译得到3 883处滑坡位置点数据.最后,从余震对滑坡的影响,芦山地震滑坡与邻区地震滑坡对比分析,对后续基于高分辨率遥感影像的滑坡精细解译的启示等3个方面开展了分析与讨论.     

Response of an arch dam to non-uniform excitation generated by a seismic wave scattering model

Non-uniform ground motions are generated based on a single record available at a site and seismic wave scattering analysis. The Chino Hills 2008 earthquake records at the Pacoima Dam site are used to indicate the accuracy of the method. Dynamic analysis of the Pacoima dam-reservoir-foundation under uniform and non-uniform ground motions is carried out using the EACD-3D2008 software, and the results are compared to recorded responses at different locations on the dam. There is good agreement between computed and recorded displacements of the dam for non-uniform excitation. For uniform excitation, the displacements are underestimated in comparison with those obtained from recorded excitation. Significant intensification of stresses, especially near the foundation, and different patterns of stress distribution are observed for non-uniform excitation in comparison with uniform excitation. For uniform excitation maximum stresses occur in the crown cantilever near the crest, but for non-uniform excitation the maximum stresses occur along the sides and near the foundation.     

Modified fish-bone model: A simplified MDOF model for simulation of seismic responses of moment resisting frames

This paper presents a simplified Multi-Degree-Of-Freedom (MDOF) model through modification of fish-bone model (or generic frame). Modified Fish-Bone (MFB) model is developed through three enhancements: (i) the moment of inertia for half-beams is reduced slightly to modify the assumption of equal rotation at each story joints, (ii) a number of truss elements are inserted to the fish-bone model to simulate flexural deformation of moment frames due to axial elongation and contraction of columns, and (iii) moment–rotation relationship of representative rotational springs is supposed to be bilinear instead of trilinear in order to consider simultaneous yielding at both ends of the beam in moment frames. The proposed model is evaluated with respect to nonlinear dynamic analysis results of three classic moment resisting frames subjected to 94 records of FEMA-440 ground motion data set. Moreover, the adequacy of this model is compared with the fish-bone model and two predictors of nonlinear seismic demand. The statistical study of predicted interstory drift demonstrates the superiority of the proposed model over the fish-bone model and both seismic demand predictors.     

攀枝花地震台数字地震分析探讨

结合地震波记录原理,分析并讨论攀枝花台数字仪震相的一些物理特征,并使用MATLAB对攀枝花、长春台的地震资料做简单滤波分析,便于真实地反映地震波震相。参考川滇交界地区地质构造,总结出攀枝花台对多次地震记录震相分析的经验规律,为地震速报快速识别震相提供实用参考。     

地震应急信息服务能力提升策略研究——以甘肃省地震局为例

地震应急信息是地震应急指挥和应急救援的关键因素,是震后政府、社会和公众最迫切需要的信息。地震应急信息服务作为防震减灾工作服务社会的工作内容之一,直接体现着地震行业对社会的服务水平。当前地震应急信息服务能力还存在明显不足,与公众需求有一定差距。本文从地震应急信息获取、处理、传递等环节全面系统地研究地震应急信息服务存在的问题。旨在发挥地震应急信息的作用,进而提高应急救援水平。