提高地震科技期刊审读的实效性浅议

针对目前期刊审读要求制度化的现状,探讨了提高地震科技期刊审读实效性的途径。期刊刊前和刊后审读要抓薄弱环节,内部和外部审读要有的放矢;科技期刊的审读内容有别于社科类期刊,不同的审读内容就有不同的审读主体和审读方法。审读效果的好坏与审读者的专业水平、知识结构甚至心理素质等息息相关。     

滇西南地震活动特征分析

对滇西南1970年以来所有M≥4.6级地震前的空间活动图像进行研究,用地震频度作为参数描述地震前区域的地震活动增强与平静现象,用空区、条带描述地震的孕震过程,得到以下认识:①地震频度增加是滇西南地区5级以上地震前的共性特征;②滇西南地区M≥4.6级地震前出现空区的比例随着地震震级的增加而有所增加,4.6~4.9级地震前只有60%的地震出现空区,5.0~5.9级地震前有90.9%的地震出现空区,而6.0级以上地震前全部出现空区;③空区平均持续时间也随着震级的加大而增加,空区平均持续时间为13.58个月,最短为3个月,最长为37个月;④主震位置(27/33)多发生在空区边缘(含长轴端12次、短轴端8次)。震前出现条带的规律则不明显。     

DEVELOPMENT OF EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY DISASTER INFORMATION PRE-EVALUATION DATA BASED ON KM GRID

After an earthquake, earthquake emergency response and rescue is one of the effective ways to reduce casualties from the earthquake. Earthquake emergency disaster information is one of crucial factors to effectively guide the rescue work. However, there is a "black box effect" on the emergency disaster information acquisition after an earthquake, which means real-time earthquake disaster information is insufficient. Hazard estimates are usually used as a substitute for the real-time disaster information in the "black box" period. However, it is subject to the accuracy and speed of the estimation. The development of the km grid technology provides good prospect to solve this problem. The paper suggests to develop earthquake disaster information pre-estimation data with the support of the km grid technology. The definition and source of the pre-estimation data are introduced and its possibility in improving the estimation speed and accuracy are analyzed theoretically. Then, we elaborate the calculation model of the pre-estimation data. The framework of the model includes disaster-bearing body data, disaster-causing factors used in calculation and calculation formula. The disaster-bearing body data in km grid format are introduced, including population data in km grid format and building data in km grid format. Then the four elements of the earthquake(earthquake occurrence time, earthquake location, earthquake magnitude and focal depth)are selected as disaster-causing factors for calculation. Map algebra method is used to realize the calculation model in which calculation parameters are associated with base map in the km grid format. So the pre-estimation data are developed by python and ArcGIS, which includes building damage dataset(100 layers), death toll dataset(10 layers)and direct economic loss dataset(5 layers). Finally, the pre-estimation data based method for earthquake emergency disaster information estimation is presented. With the support of this method, two real earthquake cases are used to validate the effect of the pre-estimation data. The validation results show the pre-estimation data can not only significantly improve the speed of the estimation but also greatly improve the accuracy of the estimation. Another good result is found in the validation process that with the support of the pre-estimation data, the estimated result can display the spatial distribution of the disaster information, which will effectively aid earthquake emergency response and rescues.     

Hybrid foundation for offshore wind turbines: Environmental and seismic loading

A hybrid foundation for offshore wind turbines (OWT) is studied, combining a monopile of diameter d and length L with a lightweight circular footing of diameter D. The footing is composed of steel plates and stiffeners forming compartments, backfilled to increase the vertical load. A special pile–footing connection is outlined, allowing transfer of lateral loads and moments, but not of vertical loads. The efficiency of the hybrid foundation is explored through 3D finite element modelling. Hybrid foundations of L=15 m are comparatively assessed to an L=30 m reference monopile. A detailed comparison is performed focusing on a 3.5 MW OWT. While the moment capacity of the monopile is larger, the hybrid foundation exhibits stiffer response, outperforming the monopile in the operational loading range. Under cyclic loading, the hybrid foundation experiences less stiffness degradation and rotation accumulation. Besides installation, the cost savings depend on the design of the footing and buckling can be crucial. The rubble fill is shown to provide lateral restraint to the stiffeners, being beneficial for buckling prevention. Although seismic shaking is not critical in terms of capacity, it may lead to substantial accumulation of rotation and settlement. Combined with cyclic environmental loading, the latter may challenge the serviceability of the OWT, potentially leading to a reduction of its service life. To derive insights on the effect of seismic loading, two scenarios are investigated: (a) seismic loading; and (b) combined environmental and seismic loading. In the first case, even a D=15 m hybrid foundation may outperform the reference monopile. This is not the case for combined environmental and seismic loading, where a D=20 m hybrid system would be required to outperform the reference monopile.     

Vulnerability of floating tunnel shafts for increasing earthquake loading

Fragility curves constitute the cornerstone in seismic risk evaluations and performance-based earthquake engineering. They describe the probability of a structure to experience a certain damage level for a given earthquake intensity measure, providing a relationship between seismic hazard and vulnerability. In this paper a numerical approach is applied to derive fragility curves for tunnel shafts built in clays, a component that is found in several critical infrastructure such as urban metro networks, airport facilities or water and waste water projects. The seismic response of a representative tunnel shaft is assessed using tridimensional finite difference non-linear analyses carried out with the program FLAC^3D, under increasing levels of seismic intensity. A hysteretic model is used to simulate the soil non-linear behavior during the seismic event. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the soil-structure system response is accounted for in the analyses. The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces. The fragility curves are estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration at a rock or stiff soil outcrop, based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed fragility models allows the characterization of the seismic risk of a representative tunnel shaft typology and soil conditions considering the associated uncertainties, and partially fill the gap of data required in performing a risk analysis assessment of tunnels shafts.     

Nonlinear 3D finite element analysis of soil–pile–structure interaction system subjected to horizontal earthquake excitation

The dynamic response of a seismic soil–pile–structure interaction (SSPSI) system is investigated in this paper by conducting nonlinear 3D finite element numerical simulations. Nonlinear behaviors such as non-reflecting boundary condition and soil–pile–structure interaction modeled by the penalty method have been taken into account. An equivalent linear model developed from the ground response analysis and the modified Drucker–Prager model are separately used for soil ground. A comparison of the two models shows that the equivalent linear soil model results in an underestimated acceleration response of the structure under this ground shaking and the soil behavior should be considered as a fully-nonlinear constitutive model in the design process of the SSPSI system. It was also observed that the dynamic response of the system is greatly affected by the nonlinearity of soil–pile interface and is not sensitive to the dilation angle of the soil. Furthermore, the effect of the presence of pile foundations on SSPSI response is also analyzed and discussed.     

马鞍山-铜陵-安庆长江沿线上地壳速度结构成像

利用安徽人工震源地下结构探测科学实验开展的三维高分辨探测数据,以及初至波走时成像技术,获得了沿长江一线上地壳速度结构成像结果。结果显示,沿长江从马鞍山至安庆,上地壳速度结构存在明显横向差异,沉积盖层厚度和浅表速度在该区呈现明显的隆升和坳陷相间的构造特征,显示了该区域中生代以来经历的隆升和伴随着岩浆活动的伸展作用。     

京西盆岭构造区积累库仑破裂应力变化对强震的影响

Since 231 B. C.,a total of 15 M6.0 - 7.5 earthquakes have been recorded in the west Beijing basin-range tectonic region( 38.3°- 41.5° E,112°- 116.2° N),a region mainly under the action of tensional normal faulting. In this paper,we calculate the Coulomb stress change of each earthquake and the cumulative Coulomb stress change,and on this basis we analyze the stress triggering of strong earthquakes. The research shows that there are 10 of 14 earthquakes that occurred in the trigger zones,in which the Coulomb stress change is positive,and the trigger rate is 71%. The positive areas of cumulative Coulomb stress change caused by these 15 earthquakes are: middle of northern Liulengshan fault,Northern Huaizhuo basin fault,Xinbaoan-Shacheng fault,Sangganhe fault and Southern Yuxian basin fault. This necessarily increases the seismic risk of these faults and can be used as a reference for future seismic risk analysis in this area.     

尼泊尔Ms8.1级地震中国西藏地区地震震害特征分析

2015年4月25日尼泊尔发生Ms8.1级地震,对我国西藏地区造成较大人员伤亡与房屋破坏,道路、通讯等生命线工程及水利等基础设施损坏严重。本文介绍了本次地震的基本情况,并在现场地震烈度调查和地震损失评估的基础上,对灾区震害情况进行了分析,给出了灾区房屋类别与破坏情况以及生命线系统与各行业的受损情况。通过分析此次地震的灾害特点,指出了灾区在抗震设防中存在的问题,最后提出应加大地震地质灾害的防治力度,科学编制恢复重建规划,加强防震减灾宣传,提高农牧民抗震设防意识,加强农牧区房屋建筑的指导和监管,减少地震人员伤亡和损失,促进西藏地区经济的和谐发展。     

海南东北部地区地壳地震各向异性特征初步研究

基于海南省地震台网2000～2013年的区域地震波形数据,用剪切波分裂系统分析方法（SAM）获得了海南琼东北部地区“九五”数字台网中2个台站的剪切波分裂参数。结果表明,快剪切波偏振优势方向代表了原地最大主压应力方向。七星岭台NE方向的快剪切波偏振优势方向与区域水平主压应力场方向不一致,与NE走向的断裂一致,体现了局部构造和局部应力场的复杂性;青山岭NNE向的快剪切波偏振优势方向揭示了NNE走向断裂的构造意义。同时,本研究证实,位于活动断裂上或几条活动断裂交汇部位的台站的快剪切波偏振优势方向,与对所选用的小地震起控制作用的活动断裂走向一致,并且快剪切波偏振优势方向较为离散,反映了该区域复杂的断裂构造和应力分布特征。