Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

Attenuation of aqueous metal transport at two natural acid rock drainage occurrences in the Yukon Territory, Canada

Naturally acidic drainage associated with pyritic black shale has been observed in many locations in the Yukon Territory. While not necessarily linked to known mineral deposits, most of these natural acid rock drainage occurrences show elevated dissolved concentrations of trace elements, especially zinc, nickel, copper, cadmium and arsenic. Based on field observations, microbial investigation, chemical analyses and geochemical modeling, the fate and transport of potentially deleterious elements at two natural acid drainage occurrences with slightly different settings are examined. The Macintosh Creek is a small, acidic stream （pH 2.98-3.40）, 2 km long, located in the Macmillan Pass area of east-central Yukon amidst known sedimentary exhalative massive sulfide mineralization but remains undisturbed by exploration activities. Its trace metal content is apparently derived from groundwater discharges, which gave as much as 5.0, 2.5, 0.7, 0.13 and 0.03 mg/L ofZn, Ni, Cu and As, respectively. Interaction and sorption reactions with algal mats, biofilms and iron oxyhydroxides appear to be the dominant mechanisms attenuating aqueous contaminant transport along the stream. Cryogenic precipitation further consolidates the ferricrete formation and reduces the mobility of the sorbed metals. The tributaries of the Engineering Creek along the Dempster Highway in northern Yukon drain through a series of dolomite, phyllite, argillite, limestone, black shale, sandstone and conglomerate with no known concentration of mineralization. In this area, the water chemistry fully reflects the local geology with acidic streams invariably associated with black shale occurrences. Groundwater seeps in the headwaters area of the km-180 Creek completely enclosed in black shale gave pH 3.0 and as much as 148, 39, 2.9 and 9.1 mg/L of Zn, Ni, Cu and As, respectively. Sorption with iron oxyhydroxide and organic matter appear to dominate the attenuation of contaminant transport along the stream. However, once entered into carbonate-dominated terrains, secondary carbonate minerals exercise additional geochemical control on the local water chemistry as a result of neutralization.     

Elastic properties of granulite facies rocks of Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu, India

Compressional and shear wave velocities and attenuation measurements have been carried out in some of the borehole samples of acidic, basic and intermediate granulites of Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu, India. The results have been obtained at ambient conditions using ‘time-of-flight’ pulse transmission technique at 1.0 MHz frequency. The results show linear relationships between velocity and density, and velocity and attenuation properties of the rocks. The acidic granulites show lower velocities and higher attenuation than the intermediate and basic granulites. The average values of the Poisson’s ratio of acidic, intermediate and basic granulites have been found to be 0.210, 0.241 and 0.279 respectively. The variations in velocities and attenuation in these low porosity crystalline rocks are found to be strongly influenced by their mineral composition. The laboratory velocity data (extrapolated to high pressure) of the present study and the published field velocity data from deep seismic sounding studies indicate that these granulite facies rocks may belong to mid-crustal depths only.