Multiscale linearized inversion of surface-wave dispersion curves

In recent years, surface-wave analysis method has been developed rapidly in many fields. Multichannel analysis of surface waves can provide near-surface one-dimensional shear-wave velocity profiles. Because linearized inversion of surface-wave dispersion curves relies heavily on the choice of the initial model, setting an inappropriate initial model can lead to poor inversion results, or even failure of inversion. However, it is difficult to establish a reasonable initial model without a priori information, which is unavailable in most cases. To cope with this problem, a multiscale linearized inversion method is proposed for surface-wave dispersion curves inversion. In contrast with the traditional single-scale linearized inversion, the key idea of the proposed multiscale surface-wave inversion method is the introduction of a merging and splitting process of layers. After every scale inversion, the merging and splitting operations automatically optimize the inversion model, making it gradually approach to a reasonable subsurface stratification. Multiscale surface-wave inversion method reduces the difficulty of establishing the initial model and has high computational efficiency. In addition, it has strong ability to identify high-velocity or low-velocity interlayers and thin layers, especially suited for the geological conditions with obvious stratification. In synthetic tests, the proposed method was compared with the single-scale surface-wave inversion and particle swarm optimization algorithm to demonstrate the effectiveness and practicability of multiscale surface-wave inversion method. We also applied the multiscale surface-wave inversion method to field seismic data acquired in Guizhou, China and Texas, USA. Borehole and crosshole test data were compared with the inversion results of field data to prove the reliability of the proposed method.     

长短时记忆神经网络在中期地震预报中的探索——以川滇地区为例

利用机器学习方法对地震活动大数据进行挖掘,识别出一些过去认识不到的异常,提高地震预测的准确性,是一个非常具有挑战性的科学问题.本文基于川滇部分地区（24°N—32°N,98°E—106°E）地震目录,采用滑动的时空窗口,选取16个反映地震时空强度分布特征的地震预测因子,建立了长短时记忆（LSTM）神经网络,对研究区域9个子区块未来一年的最大地震震级进行预测.通过设置训练集：测试集=8：2和训练集：测试集=7：3两个不同的训练测试模型,对过往发生的地震进行了回溯性预报.结果表明：训练集：测试集=7：3模型能够利用1970年1月至2004年9月的地震目录进行学习,成功回溯性预报2008年汶川地震;训练集：测试集=8：2模型利用1970年1月至2009年5月资料进行训练,回溯性预报2010—2019年间6级以上地震的R评分为0.407,回溯性7级地震预报时准确率高达92.31%.本文还探讨性给出预测意见：2022年2月前研究区西部、中部、东部、西南部存在发生5.1~5.3级地震的潜在危险性.

     

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of Meloland Road Overpass using three-dimensional continuum modeling approach

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3D) continuum nonlinear analysis of the Meloland Road Overpass (MRO) near El Centro, California. The modeling methodology and the computational tools are discussed in detail. The performance of the computational model is evaluated by comparing the computed responses with the responses recorded at the bridge site during the 1979 Imperial Valley and 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquakes. Amongst the recorded earthquake events at the bridge site, these two events caused the strongest shaking. The comparison shows that the 3D model is potentially an effective tool for detailed analysis of a full bridge system including foundation soils, pile foundations, embankments, supporting columns, and the bridge structure itself in a unified system without relying on any ancillary models such as Winkler springs. Additional response parameters such as displacements, rockings, and bending moments are also evaluated although none of these was measured during the seismic events.     

Approximate soil–structure interaction analysis by a perturbation approach: The case of soft soils

An approximate solution of the classical eigenvalue problem governing the vibrations of a relatively stiff structure on a soft elastic soil is derived through the application of a perturbation analysis. The full solution is obtained as the sum of the solution for an unconstrained elastic structure and small perturbing terms related to the ratio of the stiffness of the soil to that of the superstructure. The procedure leads to approximate analytical expressions for the system frequencies, modal damping ratios and participation factors for all system modes that generalize those presented earlier for the case of stiff soils. The resulting approximate expressions for the system modal properties are validated by comparison with the corresponding quantities obtained by numerical solution of the eigenvalue problem for a nine-story building. The accuracy of the proposed approach and of the classical normal mode approach is assessed through comparison with the exact frequency response of the test structure.     

震后预报的某些研究

通过研究华北北部中强以上地震震后地震活动，地形变、地电阻率、水化学和水位变化特征，给出了各单项方法识别震后效应与新地震异常的标志。为了综合判别震后短临异常变化是震后效应或新异常，研制了一套综合识别计算机程序系统，该系统考虑了已发生的强震序列类型，地震活动背景特征以及强震前后前兆短临异常变化形态，充分利用专家的知识与经验进行推理和判断。通过运行典型事例表明该系统功能较强，使用方便。系统的实现是专家系     

储液罐液—固—土耦合非线性翘离振动分析

本文考虑液固耦联及底板几何非线性与土壤弹性，建立了液－固－土耦合的储液罐翘离分析力学模型。算例表明，恢复力矩与翘离角之间的关系可以表达为分段线性，翘离将使地震响应增大。     

基于小波变换的动态地震活动周期分析

利用Ｍｏｒｌｅｔ小波变换对华北、中国大陆和陕西的地震活动进行了动态周期分析。结果表明，地震活动既存在比较稳定的周期，也有一定时变性，如华北近５００ａ来存在比较稳定的３００ａ周期和６０ａ左右周期，陕西近２０ａ来存在比较稳定的２￣３ａ周期，中国大陆５级以上地震在１９１０￣１９８０年普遍存在３０ａ左右周期，但在１９８０年后变为２０ａ左右周期，小波分析揭示的地震活动周期时变性，一方面提示在依据周期规律外推     

玛纳斯县城高危震害小区的综合判定

在以玛纳斯县城各居委会小区为单元进行震害预测的基础上,分析了人员伤亡数量,社会财富和无家可归人数三项指标在评判高危震害小区中占有的地位。建立了高危震害小区判定指标公式。指出了玛纳斯县城内的第４,第９居委会小区为高危震害小区。把对高危震害小区的判定从单一定性化推向综合定量化做了一次尝试。     

地震灾害盲场快速评估系统及其应用

震后灾害损失盲场快速评估的技术方法及其计算机软件系统可在确定地震震级、震中位置和发震时间等参数后,在人员未到地震现场的情况下,快速给出该次地震对一个区域造砀 经济损失和人员伤亡的初步评估结果。选择鲁南地震重点监视防御区为评估区域,并使用该软件系统对１９９５年９月－２０日发生在苍山的５．２级地震进行了灾害损失快速评估的实际检验。从检验结果可看出 ,用固定资产损失率矩阵计算经济损失,获得基础资料方便,     

基于密集流动地震台网资料研究古冶—滦县地区上地壳各向异性

自唐山地区发生7.8级地震以来, 古冶—滦县地区一直为唐山地震的余震频发区.该地区断裂和地质构造十分复杂, 这些断裂的破碎程度有哪些差异?这是地震学家所关心的问题.本文使用在古冶—滦县地区布设的密集流动地震台网2020年8月—2021年7月近一年的波形记录, 采用剪切波分裂原理通过对古冶—滦县地区上地壳各向异性研究来揭示这些问题.得到以下结论: (1)古冶—滦县地区快剪切波平均偏振方向为NE86.2°±27.8°, 慢剪切波平均时间延迟为2.37±1.25 ms·km^-1.快剪切波偏振第一优势方向为ENE向, 与区域背景主压应力方向一致; 第二优势方向为NE向, 该方向揭示了研究区域断裂主要以NE向为发育的构造意义.(2)唐山断裂带附近台站快剪切波偏振方向均显示出NE向的第二优势方向, 与断裂走向一致.断裂附近台站慢剪切波时间延迟较高, 各台站时间延迟差异较小, 表明区域各向异性程度较强, 断裂沿NE向破碎程度较强且破碎均匀.(3)滦县—乐亭断裂和卢龙断裂附近台站快剪切波偏振方向显示出复杂性, 表明两条活动断裂的交汇在地壳内部产生了复杂的地壳破裂裂隙结构.断裂附近台站慢剪切波时间延迟较高, 各台站时间延迟差异较大, 表明区域各向异性和断裂破碎程度较强, 且破碎不均匀.(4)丰台—野鸡坨断裂和榛子镇断裂附近台站快剪切波偏振方向与区域主压应力方向接近, 慢剪切波时间延迟最小, 表明断裂对其附近台站快剪切波偏振方向影响大不, 区域各向异性和断裂破碎程度较弱, 断裂内部裂隙可能存在愈合的现象.另外, 本文还针对1976年唐山M_S7.8地震后在唐山断裂带上出现的尖端效应是否对唐山断裂带北段应力场产生了影响做出了讨论.本研究结果不仅反映了断裂分布的复杂程度与地壳各向异性的关系, 还揭示了地壳各向异性在不同破碎程度断裂上的差异.