基于残差周期修正的辽宁省粮食产量灰色预测

基于1971—2005年辽宁省主要粮食作物水稻和玉米的全区平均单产资料,根据产量数据的多周期和波动性特点,采用周期修正残差值方法,构建了辽宁省粮食产量灰色预测模型,采用正弦曲线拟合残差序列,对模型的残差进行周期修正,预测精度提高。结果表明：预测＂十二五＂期间,辽宁省水稻在2013年以后出现小幅度下降,而单产绝对值仍处于一个相对较高的水平。玉米单产至2014年呈持续增产趋势,2015年略有下降,单产波动幅度较小。以2006—2009年实际产量数据对模型进行检验,效果较好。水稻单产预测模型精度为一级,玉米单产预测模型精度为二级。该模型对于大灾年份的粮食产量预测精度较差,但可反映其趋势。     

青海牧区近10年牧草产量变化与气象条件的关系

利用DPS统计中的相关、回归等方法分析近10年青海高原牧区5站点牧草产量变化与气象因子的关系,并建立了牧草产量的气象条件多元回归拟合模型。结果表明：近10年来牧草产量的年最高值河南、甘德总体呈下降趋势,曲麻莱、海北、兴海总体呈上升趋势;5站点牧草产量5月变幅最大为兴海,变幅最小的为海北,6—8月变幅最大的是曲麻莱,变幅最小的是海北;5站点8月牧草产量形成期总体上日照充足,降水除河南阶段性较充沛外,其余受限制,温度除河南在牧草生长季内当光温出现匹配不当时呈负相关外,其余均受限制;气象因子与5站点年最高牧草产量的拟合模式拟合效果较好,均可通过0.01检验。     

沉积物再悬浮对浮游动物群落结构影响的模拟实验

沉积物再悬浮是浅水湖泊的重要特征之一.通过模拟实验,比较不同再悬浮程度下浮游动物群落结构的变化,以探讨沉积物再悬浮对浮游动物的影响.结果显示,不同处理下总悬浮物与叶绿素a浓度差异显著.再悬浮组中枝角类简弧象鼻溞(Bosmina coregoni)、角突网纹溞(Ceriodaphnia cornuta)和轮虫占优势,而对照组中大型枝角类溞属(Daphniasp.)占优势,再悬浮使浮游动物群落组成趋于小型化.不同再悬浮条件下隆线溞(Daphnia carinata)、简弧象鼻溞(Bosmina coregoni)和轮虫的丰度差异显著,角突网纹溞(Ceriodaphnia cornuta)和桡足类丰度差异不显著.总悬浮物浓度与轮虫和简弧象鼻溞丰度显著正相关,与隆线溞丰度显著负相关,与其它浮游动物种群丰度无显著相关性.本研究显示,沉积物再悬浮是决定浮游动物群落结构变化的重要过程之一.     

Tracing suspended sediment and particulate phosphorus sources in catchments

Information on suspended sediment and particulate P (PP) sources is an important requirement in many catchment-based diffuse source pollution studies, in order to assist with model validation and to provide information to support the development of effective sediment and phosphorus control strategies. Such information is, however, frequently unavailable or difficult to assemble. In the study reported, source fingerprinting procedures were successfully used to assemble this information for seven sub-catchments in the Hampshire Avon catchment and five sub-catchments in the Middle Herefordshire Wye catchment. The results provide important new information on the relative importance of the contributions from surface and channel/subsurface sources to the suspended sediment and PP fluxes from the catchments. In the Wye sub-catchments channel/subsurface sources contributed 40–55% of the overall suspended sediment flux and 21–43% of the PP flux from the catchments. Equivalent values for the Avon were 1–41% and 1–54%, respectively. Combination of the information on the relative importance of surface and channel/subsurface sources with measured suspended sediment fluxes has provided the first estimates of the specific fluxes of sediment and PP attributable to channel/subsurface sources for UK catchments. The former are as high as 15–20 t km⁻² year⁻¹ in some of the Wye sub-catchments, whereas the latter exceeded 0.1 kgP ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the same sub-catchments. The results emphasize the need to take account of potential contributions from channel/subsurface sources when using measured suspended sediment and PP flux data to validate predictions derived from models incorporating only surface contributions.     

Three-dimensional modeling of bank erosion and morphological changes in the Shishou bend of the middle Yangtze River

This paper presents a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model to simulate morphological changes in alluvial channels due to bank erosion. A method for the simulation of bank erosion is established. This is incorporated into a 3-D mathematical model for turbulent flow and non-uniform, non-equilibrium sediment transport. This model is applied to simulate morphological changes in the Shishou bend of the middle Yangtze River in China, where serious bank erosions occurred during the last two decades. The double-layer sediment structure of the riverbank on the middle Yangtze River is taken into account in the bank erosion module. Both cohesive and non-cohesive bank material in the different layers are considered. The bank erosion module also includes other factors affecting the rate of bank erosion, such as the longitudinal length of failed bank, the thickness of each layer in the double-layer structure, and the erosion-resisting effect of cohesive material from the top layer of failed bank. A locally-adaptive grid system is proposed to efficiently simulate the lateral migration of alluvial channel due to bank erosion. The predictive capability of the 3-D model is examined by laboratory data. Simulated processes of bank erosion agree with field observations in the Shishou bend during the period of October 1996–October 1998, and the bank erosion module plays a significant role in simulating morphological changes of the study reach. In addition, the equivalent channel-forming discharge, which is defined as a constant discharge that can create the same amount of bank erosion in an alluvial channel as that created by natural runoff processes during the same period of time, is proposed to improve calculation efficiency for feasibility studies.     

Variation in the sediment deposition behind check‐dams under different soil erosion conditions on the Loess Plateau,China

To maintain a reasonable sediment regulation system in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, it is critical to determine the variation in sediment deposition behind check‐dams for different soil erosion conditions. Sediment samples were collected by using a drilling machine in the Fangta watershed of the loess hilly–gully region and the Manhonggou watershed of the weathered sandstone hilly–gully (pisha) region. On the basis of the check‐dam capacity curves, the soil bulk densities and the couplet thickness in these two small watersheds, the sediment yields were deduced at the watershed scale. The annual average sediment deposition rate in the Manhonggou watershed (702.0 mm/(km²·a)) from 1976 to 2009 was much higher than that in the Fangta watershed (171.6 mm/(km²·a)) from 1975 to 2013. The soil particle size distributions in these two small watersheds were generally centred on the silt and sand fractions, which were 42.4% and 50.7% in the Fangta watershed and 60.6% and 32.9% in the Manhonggou watershed, respectively. The annual sediment deposition yield exhibited a decreasing trend; the transition years were 1991 in the Fangta watershed and 1996 in the Manhonggou watershed (P < 0.05). In contrast, the annual average sediment deposition yield was much higher in the Manhonggou watershed (14011.1 t/(km²·a)) than in the Fangta watershed (3149.6 t/(km²·a)). In addition, the rainfalls that induced sediment deposition at the check‐dams were greater than 30 mm in the Fangta watershed and 20 mm in the Manhonggou watershed. The rainfall was not the main reason for the difference in the sediment yield between the two small watersheds. The conversion of farmland to forestland or grassland was the main reason for the decrease in the soil erosion in the Fangta watershed, while the weathered sandstone and bare land were the main factors driving the high sediment yield in the Manhonggou watershed. Knowledge of the sediment deposition process of check‐dams and the variation in the catchment sediment yield under different soil erosion conditions can serve as a basis for the implementation of improved soil erosion and sediment control strategies, particularly in semi‐arid hilly–gully regions. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wave-induced steady streaming,mass transport and net sediment transport in rough turbulent ocean bottom boundary layers

The interaction between two important mechanisms which causes streaming has been investigated by numerical simulations of the seabed boundary layer beneath both sinusoidal waves and Stokes second order waves, as well as horizontally uniform bottom boundary layers with asymmetric forcing. These two mechanisms are streaming caused by turbulence asymmetry in successive wave half-cycles (beneath asymmetric forcing), and streaming caused by the presence of a vertical wave velocity within the seabed boundary layer as earlier explained by Longuet-Higgins. The effect of wave asymmetry, wave length to water depth ratio, and bottom roughness have been investigated for realistic physical situations. The streaming induced sediment dynamics near the ocean bottom has been investigated; both the resulting suspended load and bedload are presented. Finally, the mass transport (wave-averaged Lagrangian velocity) has been studied for a range of wave conditions. The streaming velocities beneath sinusoidal waves (Longuet-Higgins streaming) is always in the direction of wave propagation, while the streaming velocities in horizontally uniform boundary layers with asymmetric forcing are always negative. Thus the effect of asymmetry in second order Stokes waves is either to reduce the streaming velocity in the direction of wave propagation, or, for long waves relative to the water depth, to induce a streaming velocity against the direction of wave propagation. It appears that the Longuet-Higgins streaming decreases as the wave length increases for a given water depth, and the effect of wave asymmetry can dominate, leading to a steady streaming against the wave propagation. Furthermore, the asymmetry of second order Stokes waves reduces the mass transport (wave-averaged Lagrangian velocity) as compared with sinusoidal waves. The boundary layer streaming leads to a wave-averaged transport of suspended sediments and bedload in the direction of wave propagation.     

A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation

Paired catchment studies have been widely used as a means of determining the magnitude of water yield changes resulting from changes in vegetation. This review focuses on the use of paired catchment studies for determining the changes in water yield at various time scales resulting from permanent changes in vegetation. The review considers long term annual changes, adjustment time scales, the seasonal pattern of flows and changes in both annual and seasonal flow duration curves. The paired catchment studies reported in the literature have been divided into four broad categories: afforestation experiments, deforestation experiments, regrowth experiments and forest conversion experiments. Comparisons between paired catchment results and a mean annual water balance model are presented and show good agreement between the two methodologies. The results highlight the potential underestimation of water yield changes if regrowth experiments are used to predict the likely impact of permanent alterations to a catchment's vegetation. An analysis of annual water yield changes from afforestation, deforestation and regrowth experiments demonstrates that the time taken to reach a new equilibrium under permanent land use change varies considerably. Deforestation experiments reach a new equilibrium more quickly than afforestation experiments. The review of papers reporting seasonal changes in water yield highlights the proportionally larger impact on low flows. Flow duration curve comparison provides a potential means of gaining a greater understanding of the impact of vegetation on the distribution of daily flows.     

不同压实度荆门弱膨胀土的一维膨胀-压缩特性

为探讨压实膨胀土的体变行为,以荆门弱膨胀土为研究对象,借助高压固结仪对6种制样压实度下的膨胀土试样进行了一维无荷载膨胀和含一次卸载-再加载循环的压缩试验。基于膨胀试验结果,构建了膨胀时程方程,通过参数分析,明确了方程参数的物理意义,并建议了膨胀时程曲线3阶段的划分方法。基于压缩试验结果,探讨了固结屈服应力、压缩指数Cc、回弹指数Cs、膨胀力与制样压实度、土体结构性、膨胀势、孔隙比的相关关系。试验结果及其分析表明,膨胀土体积变化是膨胀势与外部荷载、湿度变化的耦合作用结果,且具有强烈的水-力路径依赖性。     

长江口及其邻近海域粘性泥沙的数量与输移

长江口的粘性泥沙有89.6%以上来源于长江补给区,一部分来源于废黄河与黄海补给区。长江补给区的粘性泥沙的汇入百分数及其输沙量两者均为已知,据此计算出长江口粘性泥沙沉积量为4.554×10~7t/a,从长江口输向杭州湾与东海补给区的粘性泥沙输沙量为2.247×10~7t/a,废黄河与黄海补给区输向长江口的输沙量为2.730×10~7t/a。长江口粘性泥沙的数量同1915年与1963年实测地形图比较量算的数量为4.469X10~7t/a基本相符。