全球海洋海浪要素季节变化研究

本文使用欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting,ECMWF）近30年（1982～2011年）全球再分析资料（ECMWF 40 Year Re-analysis Interim）中的风场及海浪场资料,对全球海表10 m风场、有效波高、平均周期和平均波向进行了统计分析,并定义了一种计算季节变率的方法。研究发现,有效波高和平均周期均存在明显的季节变化,且北半球大洋比南半球大洋季节变化更为明显,印度季风区则例外。另外尝试用波龄揭示风浪、涌浪的分布特征,证实了全球海洋为涌浪占主导及太洋东部存在涌浪强化,同时发现了涌浪的分布在春夏季变化明显的特征。     

北半球近地层典型区CO_2体积分数时空分布及成因

利用GEOS-Chem全球三维大气化学传输模式,分析了北半球近地层CO2体积分数的时空变化特征及其成因。2006—2010年的5 a的模拟结果表明:北半球中纬度近地层CO2体积分数存在着两个高值中心,即亚洲东部和北美东北部。在季节尺度上,亚洲东部CO2体积分数最大值出现在春季,而北美东北区域CO2体积分数最大值出现在冬季;而两个地区的CO2体积分数最低值都出现在夏季。在年际尺度上,两个区域CO2体积分数的年际变率增幅明显高于北半球其它区域,且CO2体积分数高值出现时间的年际差异较大。另外,模拟分析发现北半球森林、农田、草原典型区域,所对应的CO2体积分数具有不同的季节变化特点,它们的CO2季节内变幅依次减小。进一步分析发现3种不同典型区域的CO2体积分数与叶面积指数(LAI)季节变化,具有很好的负相关性。可见陆地生态系统作为碳汇,对近地层CO2体积分数的季节变化具有重要的作用。而温度和降水是影响LAI的最重要的两个气象因子,它们与CO2体积分数季节变化存在内在联系,模拟结果表明北半球大部分陆地近地层CO2体积分数与温度、降水呈现显著的负相关。     

云南地区观测的舒曼谐振背景变化特征

本文利用云南地区永胜台观测的地磁南北和东西分量开展舒曼谐振的背景变化特征分析.通过提取舒曼谐振各阶频率和功率谱密度的小时均值,分析了前三阶舒曼谐振频率和功率谱密度在分点和至点前后的周日变化特征.舒曼谐振功率谱密度的周日变化与亚洲、非洲和美洲三大闪电活动中心的活跃时段以及观测站相对于三大闪电活动中心的方位密切相关.舒曼谐振频率的周日变化特征更复杂.各阶功率谱密度和频率在夏至和秋分前后的变化幅度比春分和冬至前后大.从2011年舒曼谐振频率和功率谱密度日中值的年变化图中发现,谐振频率随季节变化的特征不明显,而功率谱密度的年度变化曲线呈半周期正弦波形态,以7月份为轴对称分布.功率谱密度的季节变化特征与闪电活动的季节变化特征相一致.南北和东西分量得到的前三阶谐振频率,第一阶约稳定在7.5 Hz.而随着阶数增加,南北分量得到的谐振频率比东西分量约大0.5 Hz.高阶谐振频率发生偏移的原因目前还不清楚.     

南黄海中部悬浮体垂直分布及其季节变化

南黄海中部悬浮体浓度垂直分布及其季节变化对该海域泥质区的生成有重要意义,为研究黄东海物质交换、南黄海中部泥质区生成机制,利用2006年至2009年四季节的温度、盐度数据,结合水样抽滤获得的悬浮体质量浓度数据和LISST观测到的悬浮体体积浓度数据分析南黄海中部断面悬浮体浓度垂直分布及其季节变化。结果表明,悬浮体LISST体积浓度和抽滤质量浓度具有较好的相关性,并将夏冬两季悬浮体体积浓度转换为质量浓度。四季节悬浮体浓度整体上表层低于底层,潮流是控制南黄海悬浮体分布的重要动力因素,秋季大潮期悬浮体浓度高于冬季小潮期,冬春两季悬浮体浓度分布相类似;受到强台风影响,夏季悬浮体浓度高于秋冬季,以温跃层为界,底层悬浮体浓度较高,最高达26.9mg/L,以细粉砂粒级为主,上层悬浮体浓度低于2mg/L,悬浮颗粒粒径大于31.6μm。夏季,黄海冷水团西边界锋面处为粉砂为主的高悬浮体浓度区,与南黄海中部泥质区西侧厚沉积带位置对应。冬季,黄海西部沿岸流流经区域悬浮体以极细砂粒级为主,黄海暖流海域各个粒级悬浮体浓度都比较高,以粉砂粒级以上为主,整个断面中较粗颗粒的悬浮体含量较多。     

Temperature trend analysis in the glacier region of Naradu Valley,Himachal Himalaya,India

Two and a half decade (1985–2009) surface air temperature from Giovanni database available for the Naradu valley at High Himalaya Mountain range of Himachal Pradesh has been analysed to determine the changes in the maximum, minimum and mean air temperatures. The analysis was subjected for seasonal, annual and monthly basis and revealed a tendency towards warmer years all around, with significantly warmer winter and more significant increase in minimum temperatures. The annual maximum, minimum and mean temperatures have increase by 1,41 °C, 1,63 °C and 1,49 °C, respectively. The seasonal analysis indicates that the tendency is more pronounced in winter followed by post-monsoon, pre-monsoon and monsoon season. The trends were also examined on a maximum temperatures, and it showed a significant warning in all the months in annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, except February during the period of 1985–2009 in the valley. Different trend detection statistical tools have been exercised by using variety of non-parametric tests and all are in agreement.     

Seasonal and gender-related differences in morphometric features and cellular and biochemical parameters of Carcinus aestuarii from the Lagoon of Venice

In this study, the seasonal variations in the morphometric features and in the cellular and biochemical parameters of the haemolymph were investigated in both male and female crabs (Carcinus aestuarii). Crabs were seasonally (November 2010–August 2011) collected from the Lagoon of Venice, and the moult stage, weight, width and length of the carapace, and width and length of the bigger chela were evaluated. In addition, the total haemocyte count (THC), haemocyte diameter and volume, haemolymph glucose and total protein levels, and haemolymph phenoloxidase (PO) and N-acetyl-β-glucosaminidase (NAG) activities were measured. The results demonstrated that the collected crabs were all in the intermoult stage and that the males were bigger than the females. A two-way ANOVA revealed a significant effect of season on the THC and the haemocyte volume and a significant influence of gender on the haemocyte diameter. Season and gender significantly affected the haemolymph glucose concentration, whereas haemolymph protein levels were dependent only on the season. In addition, both season and gender significantly influenced the PO and NAG activities in the haemolymph. Overall, the results demonstrated that crab morphometric features as well as haemolymph cellular and biochemical parameters varied markedly as a function of both season and gender.     

Seasonal variation of space–time parameters of internal gravity waves at Kharkiv (49°30′N, 36°51′E)

Internal gravity waves (IGWs) over Kharkiv (49°30′N, 36°51′E) have been studied by using an automatic goniometer of a meteor radar (AG MR), with its antenna directed to the East. The AG MR carries out Doppler measurements of the radial drift velocity and the position of the reflecting area of meteor trails. In order to obtain information about IGW parameters, an algorithm was used that processes the AG MR wind data by dividing the measured volume into several sub-volumes, and by carrying out wavelet analysis of wind variations in these areas. Results of 1 year (1987) of AG MR data show a good qualitative correspondence with literature results. There is an increase of IGW activity during the change of the zonal background wind in spring and autumn. It was found that the mean IGW horizontal phase velocity and predominating horizontal propagation direction change with season. However, the mean period (1.5 h), the dominant amplitude (30 m/s) and the vertical phase velocity do not strongly vary in the course of the year. The mean vertical and horizontal wavelengths were found to be 40 and 250 km, respectively.     

印度洋-太平洋暖池的变异研究

为了研究在何种时间尺度上定义研究印度洋-太平洋暖池（简称印-太暖池）更有意义, 本文中应用功率谱等统计学方法, 对印-太暖池的季节、年际及年代际变化特征进行了分析.结果表明, 印-太暖池、东印度洋暖池（简称东印暖池）在季节变化上表现为单峰结构, 而西太平洋暖池（简称西太暖池）则为双峰结构; 在年际变化上印-太暖池和西太暖池表现出很强的3-6年变化周期, 东印暖池则存在准两年的振荡周期; 印-太暖池还存在10年以上的年代际周期振荡, 特别是70年代中后期的年代际突变明显, 而东印暖池的这种变化更为明显.由此可知印-太暖池的年代际变化与东印暖池、西太暖池年代际变化较为相似, 季节和年际变化颇为不同, 所以, 在研究年代际尺度的问题上, 定义并研究印-太暖池的意义更大, 而在研究年际、季节尺度上的问题时东印暖池、西太暖池应分而视之.     

利用深度神经网络和先兆信号的江苏夏季降水客观预测方法

利用1961—2019年江苏省67个站降水量和气候指数数据集等资料,选取大气环流、海温和积雪等先兆信号的不同组合作为预测因子方案,通过对比不同机器学习方法对江苏省夏季降水开展预测试验。结果表明,深度神经网络（Deep Neural Network,DNN）较传统统计方法和其他机器学习方法有一定优势,深度神经网络结合动态权重集合因子方案对江苏省夏季降水的预测技巧最高,其独立样本检验结果稳定,2015—2019年的平均PS评分为76.0,距平符号一致率为0.62,距平相关系数达0.35,尤其对江苏省中南部的预测技巧更高,具有业务应用价值。不同预测因子方案对比分析表明,大气环流因子在江苏省夏季降水预测中做主要贡献,而海温因子和积雪等其他因子也有正贡献,说明使用综合性预测因子以及集合方案有助于提升季节预测准确率。      

河北省冷暖变化气候特征分析

利用河北省70个站自建站至2000年近50a的系统气温观测资料,分析了河北省冷暖变化的年际和年代际特征,及其区域差异和季节差别,并估计了河北省未来50a冷暖变化趋势。结果表明：河北省年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温的年际和年代际变化都呈现增温趋势,增温幅度由大到小依次为：年平均最低气温、年平均气温、年平均最高气温;全省年平均、最高、最低气温变化趋势与其五个分区的变化趋势具有整体一致性,都皇现升温趋势,但各区域的增温幅度不一,增幅最大的区域是冀东平原区,最小的区域是河北省北部;各季气温变化呈现春、秋季平均气温变化程度相对比较平缓,冬季增温幅度最大的特点,自80年代末始,暖冬现象明显;在全球和中国气候将继续变暖的背景下,河北省气温估计未来50a升高在1～2℃之间。