提高电视天气预报主持人综合素质的几点思考

电视天气预报作为天气预报的主要发布形式被广大观众所接受.摆在我们气象工作者面前的一项重要课题便是如何进一步丰富气象信息.为此,一是要增加天气预报的信息内容;二是要提高电视天气预报节目主持人的综合素质.文章重点探讨要提高主持人的综合素质,首先主持人的形象要立体化,其次主持人要善于应用形体语言,最后主持人要有创新能力.     

Preliminary Study of the Ability of Large-scale Deformation Observed by Lunar Based InSAR—Taking Vertical Displacement of Solid Earth Tide as an Example

Based on the principle of InSAR (Interferometirc Synthetic Aperture Radar) characterized by large-scale, continuity, permanency and dynamic, we took vertical displacement of solid Earth tide as an example to simulate the large-scale deformation observed by lunar based InSAR for the first time in the study and the observation ability was analyzed. Solid Earth tide has a feature of a large-space distribution range and the lunar based InSAR exhibits a feature of an ultra-wide swath imaging. According to these features, a simplified observation geometry model was established and a mid-low latitudes area with 50 degrees span in both longitude and latitude was selected as the simulation area. Then the revisit time intervals of the lunar based SAR for the selected area and the tidal vertical displacements at the points scanned by the radar were calculated. The time differentials were further computed to get the relative vertical deformation of the solid Earth tide. The simulation results show that the revisit period of the lunar based radar is about 24.8 hours and the maximum vertical displacement in 30 days is up to 30 cm. Since the designed accuracy of the lunar based InSAR reaches several centimeters, the observing of the vertical displacement of the solid Earth tide by using the lunar based InSAR is feasible in theory as the maximum magnitude of the vertical displacement is 1 order of magnitude larger than the designed accuracy. Theoretically ,solid Earth tide is observable by using lunar based InSAR in a sizable area.We can also use the observation data to study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics when observation time lasts two revisit periods or more. On the other hand,the result of the study also provides references for the parameter designing of other observations using the lunar based InSAR, especially for observing large-scale geodynamic phenomena.     

THE UNDERSTANDING OF ENSO CYCLE MECHANISM AND ENSO POTENTIAL PREDICTION ABILITY*

In recent years,the dynamic coupled models of ocean-atmosphere and statistical models have been used in routine operation for issuing long-lead forecasts.The dynamic coupled models consist of models with varying degrees of complexity,ranging from simplified coupled models of the shallow water to coupled general circulation models.During the period of 1980-1992,some models performed considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices of ENSO for lead time of 6 to 12 months.It seems that ENSO is predictable at least one year in advance.However.nearly all the models have lost their skill of forecasting sea surface temperature(SST)changes in the eastern equatorial Pacific since 1992.It is a challenge not only to the dynamic models but also to the understanding of the ENSO cycle mechanism.This paper examines multiple time-space scales of the ocean-atmosphere interactions and potential prediction ability of ENSO event by using data analysis and model study.     

断裂静止期有无输导油气能力的判别方法

通过断裂内部结构及输导通道特征研究,得到断裂静止期输导油气通道主要是碎裂岩的连通孔隙,其是否具有输导油气能力主要取决于碎裂岩颗粒粒度、泥质含量和断裂倾角大小。在此基础上,利用物理模拟实验模拟了油气在浮力作用下沿断裂碎裂岩运移速度与碎裂岩颗粒粒度、泥质含量和断裂倾角之间的关系。利用此关系建立了一套断裂静止期有无输导油气能力的判别方法,即运移速度大于零,断裂具输导油气能力,反之则无。并将其应用于海拉尔盆地苏仁诺尔断裂静止期在各组地层中有无输导油气能力的判别中,其结果与地下油气分布情况相符,表明该方法定量判别断裂静止期有无输导油气能力是可行的。     

中国游艇俱乐部区位特征研究

通过对中国游艇俱乐部相关数据的收集与分析,探讨游艇俱乐部的区域宏观区位特征和城市微观区位特征,并揭示出区位特征的核心影响因素。主要结论为：中国的游艇俱乐部主要集中在三大经济区,其中广东、海南、山东、上海和浙江等地的游艇俱乐部综合能力较强。中心城区和近郊区是游艇俱乐部的主要聚集地,纯游艇俱乐部和地产型游艇俱乐部为主要载体,有泊位的与无泊位的俱乐部在区位上高度重合。影响游艇俱乐部区位的因素既包括区域自然资源环境、经济水平、旅游业发展、上游游艇制造业,也包括游艇产业相关政策及区域海洋文化等因素。     

Cognitive Abilities in the Service of Wayfinding: A Functional Approach

A functionally oriented framework for examining the cognitive abilities that are involved in human wayfinding is suggested. The framework includes a categorical distinction among types of wayfinding tasks (commutes, explores, and quests) and means used most frequently to accomplish these tasks (piloting, repetition of locomotor pattern, path integration, and navigation by cognitive map). The cognitive abilities contributing to these wayfinding means have been demonstrated by research on spatial cognition and behavior or can be inferred from relevant research and theory.     

毛乌素沙地固沙造林针叶树种选择的研究

选择樟子松、油松等五种针叶树种在毛乌素沙地进行栽植试验,通过对成活率与保存率、生长量、蓄积量、抗逆性等14年的观测,从单项及多指标综合选优及排序,确立樟子松为毛乌素沙地针叶树造林的优选树种。     

基于新疆地震知识的地震预报专家系统的研究

依据新疆南北天山带地震预报实践中b值和η值的异常判据,对运用于地震预报专家系统（ＥＳＣＥＰ）测震学方法的主要异常判别指标进行了个性,并对个性前后的计算结果进行了对比分析,对预报效能进行了评价。结果表明,个性后的专家系统知识库预报效能明显提高,虚报和漏报率明显下降,预报效能明显提高,虚报和漏报率明显下降,预报效能通过检验,说明修改后了专场主家系统知识库更适合新疆地区中短期地震预报。     

吉林省地震台网监控能力分析

本文简要介绍了吉林省地震台网布局,监测手段设置及仪器装备状况,重点对测震台网,地震前兆台网的监控能力进行分析,给出了台网和实际控制范围,对目前台网存在的问题以及今后的发展情况进行了讨论。     

顺义4.0级地震前兆异常特征与京区前兆监测网监测能力探讨

通过对北京地区现有定点地震前兆监测网进行清理,分析了现有定点专业前兆监测台站、观测点、群测点的数量及分布密度的现状。对１９９６年１２月１６日北京顺义ＭＳ４．０地震的短临异常特征进行了探讨,表明顺义ＭＳ４．０地震前在震中周围出现一个直径约３５ｋｍ的短临异常密集区域。从异常形态看,该区域中的异常大部分可能带有来自震源的信息。结合顺义地震短临异常点位分布特征,对北京地区前兆台网的密度问题进行了探讨。