On the validity of empirical power laws

Empirical power laws are frequently used to relate parameters in complex hydrological and hydrometeorological processes. The validity of power laws relating two parameters with a common variable may be compromised by spurious influences of the common variable. Theoretical results are presented that allow both the spurious self-correlation coefficient and the slope of a spurious self-correlation to be determineda priori. Raising a common variable to a higher power in either parameter amplifies the spurious effects.Power law regression equations are not single-valued analytical functions and must not be treated as such. Because of the strong influence of a common variable on the correlation coefficient, the transfer of a common variable from one side of a power-law regression equation to another (by cross-multiplying) may severely distort the results. Examples from lake hydrology are presented.     

珠江口盆地东部定量生物地层划分对比及沉降历史分析

用定量生物地层学的方法(RASC 和 CASC)对珠江口盆地东部34口井的古生物资料进行统计分析,建立了最佳生物地层序列。根据化石事件间的 RASC 距离,将这个最佳序列划出10个化石组合带,用 CASC 方法建立了区域地质年表,展示了地质年代、地层和RASC 分带之间的关系,并完成了井间对比。最后,根据 CASC 所提供的钻井时-深曲线,对10口井进行了沉降史分析,揭示了该区中新世以来构造沉降的时空特征。     

Scaling of Canadian low flows

Scaling properties of Canadian low flows, namely annual minimum mean 1-, 5- and 7-day flows, are evaluated across Canada and in its sub-climatic regions. Across the entire country, the log relationship between the kth product moments (PMs, E[Q_i^k]) of low flows and drainage area (A_i) can be represented by: ln(E[Q_i^k])=a_k+b_kln(A_i)and b_k=k, with = 0.86, 0.94 and 0.93 for annual minimum mean 1-, 5- and 7-day flows, respectively. The log linear relationships between the kth probability weighted moments (PWMs, ) and A_i are ln()=c_k+Hln(A_i), in which H is constant and is independent of k. The values of H are 0.87, 0.97, and 0.96 for annual minimum mean 1-, 5- and 7-day flows, respectively, which are almost the same as the values. The coefficients of variation (Cv) are almost independent of drainage area. These results demonstrate that Canadian low flows generally exhibit simple scaling and drainage area alone describes most of the variability in the moments of the low flows. Low flows in each of the sub-climatic regions also obey a simple scaling law. The values of , H and Cv are different in each region, which may stem from physiographical and climatological differences among these regions. The finding lays a basis for applying the index flood method to conduct regional low flow frequency analysis as simple scaling is equivalent to the index flood method.Acknowledgements The authors thank Prof. Thian Yew Gan of University of Alberta, Canada for providing additional pristine data sites for regions 4 and 10. A constructive comments provided by an anonymous reviewer improved the quality of the paper.     

应用多因子复相关法制作降雨趋势预测

气候是各种气象要素的综合反映,这些要素如气压、气温、湿度、风、日照等诸因子是一些随时间、空间不断改变着的随机变量,它们之间互相联系、互相制约,客观上存在着一定的关系。多因子复相关法就是利用这些要素之间的相互作用对预报对象的影响力(或叫贡献力)制作一种模式,对未来天气进行预测的一种方法。近年来,在天气预报中得到广泛运用。通过实践应用证明,多因子复相关法预报降雨趋势具有明显的效果,对于搞好短期气候预测工作和气象服务工作具有一定的借鉴作用。     

网络地图人性化界面设计

目前网络地图发展迅猛,但界面设计缺少理论指导,仍存在着许多问题.文中首先研究了网络地图的特点和界面内容,对目前网络地图界面设计中存在的突出问题进行归纳.接着提出了基于认知心理学理论的一般性网络地图界面设计原则.最后,对网络地图的用户层次进行分类,举例说明上述设计原则在人性化网络地图界面设计中的应用.     

Scaled amplification equation: A key to the folding history of buckled viscous single-layers

The presented equation describes amplitude growth during viscous single-layer folding (buckling) up to high amplitudes. The equation relates the dimensionless fold amplitude (i.e. ratio of amplitude to wavelength) to the stretch (ratio of initial wavelength to instantaneous wavelength) for given values of the viscosity contrast between layer and surrounding material and the initial ratio of amplitude to wavelength. The amplification equation is suitably scaled so that all amplitude versus stretch curves for different values of viscosity contrasts and initial amplitudes fall onto essentially a single curve. The scaled amplification equation allows for representing fold amplification of viscous single-layers by a singular curve. The scaling parameter is the crossover strain, which is an estimate for the amount of strain that is accumulated during the initial stages of folding where the amplitude grows exponentially with strain. The singular curve allows quantifying the universal boundaries between the three folding stages, namely nucleation, amplification and kinematic growth. The scaled amplification equation is verified by numerical (finite element method) simulations of folding of single layers with initial random perturbations of the layer interfaces. The amplification equation describes the amplification of single folds within fold trains successfully, although the folds are neither regular nor periodic and vary considerably in shape. The easily measurable parameters, vertical and horizontal hinge distance, are shown to be good approximations for the analytical parameters amplitude and wavelength, respectively.     

Dependence of earthquake recurrence times and independence of magnitudes on seismicity history

The fulfillment of a scaling law for earthquake recurrence–time distributions is a clear indication of the importance of correlations in the structure of seismicity. In order to characterize these correlations we measure conditional recurrence–time and magnitude distributions for worldwide seismicity as well as for Southern California during stationary periods. Disregarding the spatial structure, we conclude that the relevant correlations in seismicity are those of the recurrence time with previous recurrence times and magnitudes; in the latter case, the conditional distribution verifies a scaling relation depending on the difference between the magnitudes of the two events defining the recurrence time. In contrast, with our present resolution, magnitude seems to be independent on the history contained in the seismic catalogs (except perhaps for Southern California for very short time scales, less than about 30 min for the magnitude ranges analyzed).     

水文行政执法初探

为完善水文行政执法共作,规范水行政执法行为,就目前水文在行政执法中存在的这一些问题及应采取的措施谈点体会,以便更好地贯彻落实水法律的法规,加强水文行业管理工作。